Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs PHI
Score 72.5 | Lineup K 6.08
|
5.87 | 6.05 | +0.18 | 80.8% | 67.9% | 53.6% | 39.9% | 28.1% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs HOU
Score 69.5 | Lineup K 5.27
|
5.98 | 5.82 | -0.16 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.4% | 36.8% | 25.3% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 64.5 | Lineup K 5.50
|
5.86 | 5.80 | -0.06 | 78.6% | 64.8% | 50.1% | 36.5% | 25.1% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 65.0 | Lineup K 6.28
|
5.20 | 5.64 | +0.44 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Spencer Strider
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CIN
Score 80.5 | Lineup K 7.37
|
4.84 | 5.55 | +0.71 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATL
Score 49.5 | Lineup K 5.69
|
5.17 | 5.35 | +0.18 | 73.9% | 58.8% | 43.6% | 30.3% | 19.8% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs BOS
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 5.57
|
4.97 | 5.19 | +0.22 | 72.0% | 56.5% | 41.2% | 28.1% | 18.0% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYY
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.92
|
4.59 | 5.07 | +0.48 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs ATH
Score 51.3 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.74 | 5.07 | +0.33 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs KC
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 4.51
|
5.24 | 4.87 | -0.37 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs PIT
Score 46.4 | Lineup K 5.21
|
4.68 | 4.85 | +0.17 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CLE
Score 59.9 | Lineup K 5.15
|
4.25 | 4.60 | +0.35 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs TEX
Score 38.1 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.60 | 4.58 | -0.02 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SEA
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 5.60
|
3.98 | 4.44 | +0.46 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs AZ
Score 38.1 | Lineup K 4.26
|
4.43 | 4.33 | -0.10 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs DET
Score 33.7 | Lineup K 4.68
|
4.05 | 4.21 | +0.16 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SD
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.26
|
3.96 | 4.02 | +0.06 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 34.7 | Lineup K 3.87
|
3.98 | 3.89 | -0.09 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs WSH
Score 33.9 | Lineup K 4.21
|
3.70 | 3.83 | +0.13 | 51.5% | 34.1% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 23.0 | Lineup K 3.70
|
3.83 | 3.70 | -0.13 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs TB
Score 21.8 | Lineup K 3.73
|
3.54 | 3.49 | -0.05 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CWS
Score 36.0 | Lineup K 3.75
|
3.10 | 3.29 | +0.19 | 41.1% | 24.6% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 3.52
|
3.19 | 3.23 | +0.04 | 39.9% | 23.6% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.