Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs MIA
Score 79.0 | Lineup K 6.42
|
5.71 | 6.04 | +0.33 | 80.8% | 67.8% | 53.5% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs ATL
Score 62.1 | Lineup K 5.87
|
5.92 | 5.96 | +0.04 | 80.1% | 66.8% | 52.4% | 38.7% | 27.0% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIL
Score 62.4 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.84 | 5.81 | -0.03 | 78.7% | 65.0% | 50.3% | 36.6% | 25.2% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs DET
Score 47.9 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.90 | 5.70 | -0.20 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CHC
Score 53.1 | Lineup K 5.59
|
5.69 | 5.61 | -0.08 | 76.7% | 62.4% | 47.4% | 33.9% | 22.8% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs STL
Score 57.4 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.38 | 5.44 | +0.06 | 74.9% | 60.0% | 44.9% | 31.5% | 20.8% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BOS
Score 52.2 | Lineup K 5.41
|
5.38 | 5.35 | -0.03 | 73.9% | 58.8% | 43.6% | 30.3% | 19.8% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs PHI
Score 41.2 | Lineup K 5.04
|
5.12 | 5.06 | -0.06 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CWS
Score 66.5 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.70 | 4.92 | +0.22 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs KC
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.81 | 4.90 | +0.09 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 30.1 | Lineup K 4.85
|
4.86 | 4.78 | -0.08 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 40.6 | Lineup K 4.90
|
4.74 | 4.76 | +0.02 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs COL
Score 49.8 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.68 | 4.75 | +0.07 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PIT
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.58 | 4.68 | +0.10 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SD
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.72 | 4.63 | -0.09 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 44.5 | Lineup K 4.21
|
4.77 | 4.55 | -0.22 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs NYY
Score 29.7 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.11 | 4.40 | +0.29 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CIN
Score 53.0 | Lineup K 5.90
|
3.85 | 4.32 | +0.47 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs HOU
Score 28.0 | Lineup K 4.20
|
4.11 | 4.07 | -0.04 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs AZ
Score 36.6 | Lineup K 4.20
|
4.01 | 4.03 | +0.02 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs LAD
Score 22.4 | Lineup K 4.43
|
3.65 | 3.84 | +0.19 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs WSH
Score 25.6 | Lineup K 3.66
|
3.90 | 3.67 | -0.23 | 48.5% | 31.2% | 18.4% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SEA
Score 21.3 | Lineup K 4.05
|
3.38 | 3.46 | +0.08 | 44.5% | 27.6% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs BAL
Score 21.9 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.10 | 3.36 | +0.26 | 42.5% | 25.8% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs ATH
Score 30.3 | Lineup K 4.24
|
3.03 | 3.31 | +0.28 | 41.5% | 25.0% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIN
Score 30.6 | Lineup K 4.16
|
2.58 | 2.84 | +0.26 | 31.9% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.