Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BAL
Score 67.4 | Lineup K 6.23
|
6.50 | 6.49 | -0.01 | 84.3% | 72.7% | 59.4% | 45.8% | 33.6% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs DET
Score 68.3 | Lineup K 6.10
|
6.44 | 6.41 | -0.03 | 83.7% | 71.9% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 32.6% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 69.6 | Lineup K 5.98
|
6.31 | 6.29 | -0.02 | 82.8% | 70.6% | 56.8% | 43.2% | 31.1% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs COL
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 5.99
|
4.79 | 5.27 | +0.48 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs STL
Score 68.9 | Lineup K 5.98
|
4.70 | 5.23 | +0.53 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Kodai Senga
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs CIN
Score 64.1 | Lineup K 6.35
|
4.45 | 5.04 | +0.59 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs SF
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.37
|
4.82 | 5.03 | +0.21 | 70.1% | 54.1% | 38.8% | 25.9% | 16.3% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs HOU
Score 49.8 | Lineup K 5.60
|
4.57 | 4.93 | +0.36 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAA
Score 58.4 | Lineup K 6.10
|
4.36 | 4.92 | +0.56 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TEX
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.68 | 4.87 | +0.19 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs NYM
Score 40.7 | Lineup K 5.23
|
4.28 | 4.58 | +0.30 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs WSH
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 4.27
|
4.60 | 4.45 | -0.15 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs MIN
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.22 | 4.42 | +0.20 | 61.5% | 44.3% | 29.4% | 18.1% | 10.4% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs ATH
Score 56.0 | Lineup K 5.78
|
3.90 | 4.39 | +0.49 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs NYY
Score 25.5 | Lineup K 4.70
|
3.98 | 4.15 | +0.17 | 57.1% | 39.6% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs LAD
Score 40.0 | Lineup K 4.21
|
3.90 | 3.98 | +0.08 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIL
Score 32.6 | Lineup K 4.21
|
3.80 | 3.89 | +0.09 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CHC
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.42 | 3.75 | +0.33 | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs ATL
Score 25.9 | Lineup K 4.54
|
3.42 | 3.74 | +0.32 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SEA
Score 22.7 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.29 | 3.58 | +0.29 | 46.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs SD
Score 26.0 | Lineup K 4.19
|
3.27 | 3.52 | +0.25 | 45.6% | 28.6% | 16.3% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.