Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs BAL
Score 69.0 | Lineup K 6.39
|
6.44 | 6.45 | +0.01 | 84.0% | 72.3% | 58.9% | 45.3% | 33.1% |
Hunter Greene
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs COL
Score 83.1 | Lineup K 6.97
|
5.89 | 6.43 | +0.54 | 83.9% | 72.1% | 58.6% | 45.1% | 32.8% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs SF
Score 71.9 | Lineup K 5.88
|
6.50 | 6.39 | -0.11 | 83.6% | 71.7% | 58.1% | 44.5% | 32.3% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAD
Score 60.9 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.98 | 5.91 | -0.07 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs NYY
Score 64.9 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.49 | 5.81 | +0.32 | 78.7% | 65.0% | 50.3% | 36.6% | 25.2% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs CLE
Score 78.0 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.33 | 5.66 | +0.33 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SEA
Score 47.8 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.20 | 5.44 | +0.24 | 74.9% | 60.0% | 44.9% | 31.5% | 20.8% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs PIT
Score 53.8 | Lineup K 5.28
|
5.35 | 5.34 | -0.01 | 73.8% | 58.6% | 43.5% | 30.1% | 19.7% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATL
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.28
|
5.38 | 5.29 | -0.09 | 73.2% | 57.9% | 42.7% | 29.5% | 19.1% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIN
Score 50.5 | Lineup K 5.12
|
5.35 | 5.27 | -0.08 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TB
Score 66.3 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.68 | 5.11 | +0.43 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs TEX
Score 47.8 | Lineup K 5.52
|
4.82 | 5.01 | +0.19 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs LAA
Score 49.2 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.77 | 4.94 | +0.17 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs WSH
Score 57.5 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.59 | 4.85 | +0.26 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CHC
Score 43.5 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.68 | 4.77 | +0.09 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs STL
Score 50.8 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.39 | 4.69 | +0.30 | 65.5% | 48.7% | 33.5% | 21.5% | 12.9% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs MIL
Score 58.1 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.28 | 4.55 | +0.27 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs SD
Score 35.6 | Lineup K 4.55
|
4.38 | 4.39 | +0.01 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CIN
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 5.29
|
3.80 | 4.25 | +0.45 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs TOR
Score 28.6 | Lineup K 4.30
|
3.67 | 3.82 | +0.15 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs HOU
Score 22.6 | Lineup K 4.01
|
3.29 | 3.43 | +0.14 | 43.9% | 27.1% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs AZ
Score 22.0 | Lineup K 3.68
|
2.89 | 3.10 | +0.21 | 37.3% | 21.4% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs KC
Score 12.0 | Lineup K 3.31
|
3.04 | 3.04 | +0.00 | 36.0% | 20.4% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.