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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta
TOR @ WSH, simulated 8,000 times.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Simulation verdict
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Scherzer, Max vs Yean, Eddy · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
TOR 41.7%WSH 58.3%
4.62 – 5.39mean score
10.01mean total
49%NRFI
8.9%extra innings
4.32 / 1.47starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
TOR (gold) vs WSH (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
TOR per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clement, Ernie | 4.913 | 1.392 | 0.095 | 1.965 | 0.288 | 0.621 | 0.488 |
| Lukes, Nathan | 4.798 | 1.324 | 0.11 | 1.903 | 0.405 | 0.798 | 0.528 |
| Guerrero Jr., Vladimir | 4.688 | 1.157 | 0.08 | 1.594 | 0.527 | 0.68 | 0.469 |
| Springer, George | 4.572 | 1.06 | 0.167 | 1.808 | 0.506 | 0.885 | 0.624 |
| Kirk, Alejandro | 4.469 | 0.951 | 0.123 | 1.502 | 0.516 | 0.797 | 0.532 |
| Okamoto, Kazuma | 4.363 | 0.961 | 0.2 | 1.796 | 0.461 | 1.259 | 0.618 |
| Varsho, Daulton | 4.262 | 0.985 | 0.094 | 1.48 | 0.398 | 0.834 | 0.449 |
| Urías, Luis | 4.146 | 0.97 | 0.143 | 1.605 | 0.424 | 0.85 | 0.519 |
| Straw, Myles | 4.035 | 0.888 | 0.085 | 1.304 | 0.368 | 0.663 | 0.392 |
Projected batting lines
WSH per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood, James | 4.718 | 1.123 | 0.324 | 2.39 | 0.786 | 1.32 | 0.774 |
| García Jr., Luis | 4.608 | 1.266 | 0.316 | 2.531 | 0.324 | 0.815 | 0.882 |
| Tena, José | 4.489 | 1.056 | 0.156 | 1.739 | 0.43 | 1.16 | 0.535 |
| Abrams, CJ | 4.377 | 1.223 | 0.303 | 2.468 | 0.451 | 0.911 | 0.849 |
| Crews, Dylan | 4.272 | 0.952 | 0.194 | 1.723 | 0.427 | 0.94 | 0.601 |
| Lile, Daylen | 4.159 | 0.998 | 0.14 | 1.649 | 0.338 | 0.753 | 0.52 |
| Ruiz, Keibert | 4.056 | 1.01 | 0.138 | 1.657 | 0.278 | 0.572 | 0.52 |
| Vivas, Jorbit | 3.938 | 0.931 | 0.098 | 1.393 | 0.436 | 0.632 | 0.409 |
| Nuñez, Nasim | 3.825 | 0.848 | 0.048 | 1.108 | 0.489 | 0.803 | 0.304 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Clement, Ernie vs Yean, Eddy: OUT AIR
Lukes, Nathan vs Yean, Eddy: OUT AIR
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Yean, Eddy: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Wood, James vs Scherzer, Max: HR +1 run (0-1)
García Jr., Luis vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Tena, José vs Scherzer, Max: BB
Abrams, CJ vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Crews, Dylan vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Springer, George vs Yean, Eddy: OUT AIR
Kirk, Alejandro vs Yean, Eddy: OUT GB
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Yean, Eddy: K
— Bottom 2 —
Lile, Daylen vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Ruiz, Keibert vs Scherzer, Max: OUT GB
Vivas, Jorbit vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Varsho, Daulton vs Yean, Eddy: BB
Urías, Luis vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT AIR
Straw, Myles vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT AIR
Clement, Ernie vs Schultz, Paxton: 1B
Lukes, Nathan vs Schultz, Paxton: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Nuñez, Nasim vs Scherzer, Max: K
Wood, James vs Scherzer, Max: K
García Jr., Luis vs Scherzer, Max: HR +1 run (0-2)
Tena, José vs Scherzer, Max: K
— Top 4 —
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Ribalta, Orlando: 1B
Springer, George vs Ribalta, Orlando: OUT GB
Kirk, Alejandro vs Ribalta, Orlando: 1B
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Ribalta, Orlando: K
Varsho, Daulton vs Lord, Brad: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Abrams, CJ vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Crews, Dylan vs Scherzer, Max: K
Lile, Daylen vs Scherzer, Max: K
— Top 5 —
Urías, Luis vs Lord, Brad: K
Straw, Myles vs Lord, Brad: OUT GB
Clement, Ernie vs Lord, Brad: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Ruiz, Keibert vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Vivas, Jorbit vs Scherzer, Max: 1B
Nuñez, Nasim vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Wood, James vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Lukes, Nathan vs Lord, Brad: K
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Lord, Brad: OUT GB
Springer, George vs Varland, Gus: K
— Bottom 6 —
García Jr., Luis vs Scherzer, Max: OUT AIR
Tena, José vs Scherzer, Max: HR +1 run (0-3)
Abrams, CJ vs Scherzer, Max: BB
Crews, Dylan vs Scherzer, Max: 1B
Lile, Daylen vs Scherzer, Max: 1B +1 run (0-4)
Ruiz, Keibert vs Scherzer, Max: 1B +1 run (0-5)
Vivas, Jorbit vs Mantiply, Joe: 1B +1 run (0-6)
Nuñez, Nasim vs Mantiply, Joe: BB
Wood, James vs Mantiply, Joe: K
García Jr., Luis vs Mantiply, Joe: K
— Top 7 —
Kirk, Alejandro vs Varland, Gus: OUT AIR
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Varland, Gus: BB
Varsho, Daulton vs Varland, Gus: 1B
Urías, Luis vs Varland, Gus: 1B +1 run (1-6)
Straw, Myles vs Varland, Gus: 2B +2 runs (3-6)
Clement, Ernie vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
Lukes, Nathan vs Cosgrove, Tom: K
— Bottom 7 —
Tena, José vs Mantiply, Joe: K
Abrams, CJ vs Macko, Adam: BB
Crews, Dylan vs Macko, Adam: K
Lile, Daylen vs Macko, Adam: K
— Top 8 —
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT GB
Springer, George vs Cosgrove, Tom: OUT AIR
Kirk, Alejandro vs Henry, Cole: 1B
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Henry, Cole: K
— Bottom 8 —
Ruiz, Keibert vs Macko, Adam: OUT AIR
Vivas, Jorbit vs Little, Brendon: OUT AIR
Nuñez, Nasim vs Little, Brendon: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Varsho, Daulton vs Henry, Cole: K
Urías, Luis vs Henry, Cole: K
Straw, Myles vs Parker, Mitchell: OUT AIR