Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
MIN 3, DET 2. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
MIN 3, DET 2
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
3 – 2final score
5total runs
59% → 0%DET win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Kremer, Dean vs Anderson, Drew · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
MIN 40.8%DET 59.2%
4.25 – 4.92mean score
9.17mean total
52%NRFI
9.7%extra innings
5.92 / 5.74starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
MIN (gold) vs DET (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
MIN per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaschall, Luke | 4.822 | 1.229 | 0.089 | 1.755 | 0.427 | 0.972 | 0.423 |
| Lee, Brooks | 4.712 | 1.143 | 0.165 | 1.909 | 0.317 | 1.002 | 0.569 |
| Clemens, Kody | 4.593 | 1.036 | 0.178 | 1.85 | 0.34 | 1.298 | 0.573 |
| Jeffers, Ryan | 4.479 | 1.037 | 0.158 | 1.79 | 0.491 | 1.026 | 0.549 |
| Bell, Josh | 4.374 | 1.0 | 0.114 | 1.558 | 0.374 | 1.112 | 0.471 |
| Lewis, Royce | 4.273 | 0.886 | 0.097 | 1.383 | 0.332 | 1.267 | 0.405 |
| Larnach, Trevor | 4.159 | 0.965 | 0.099 | 1.489 | 0.381 | 1.005 | 0.402 |
| Culpepper, Kaelen | 4.05 | 0.984 | 0.101 | 1.518 | 0.331 | 1.036 | 0.449 |
| Jenkins, Walker | 3.938 | 0.83 | 0.098 | 1.325 | 0.441 | 1.006 | 0.414 |
Projected batting lines
DET per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGonigle, Kevin | 4.728 | 1.22 | 0.144 | 1.905 | 0.65 | 0.879 | 0.5 |
| Torres, Gleyber | 4.619 | 1.148 | 0.121 | 1.72 | 0.578 | 1.163 | 0.522 |
| Keith, Colt | 4.511 | 1.141 | 0.13 | 1.781 | 0.392 | 1.127 | 0.585 |
| Greene, Riley | 4.396 | 1.14 | 0.185 | 1.982 | 0.508 | 1.37 | 0.718 |
| Valencia, Eduardo | 4.292 | 1.2 | 0.218 | 2.159 | 0.263 | 1.235 | 0.79 |
| Callahan, Brett | 4.186 | 0.983 | 0.126 | 1.587 | 0.335 | 1.286 | 0.506 |
| Clark, Max | 4.079 | 1.0 | 0.088 | 1.498 | 0.414 | 1.017 | 0.441 |
| Lee, Hao-Yu | 3.97 | 0.97 | 0.123 | 1.555 | 0.327 | 1.105 | 0.504 |
| McKinstry, Zach | 3.853 | 0.817 | 0.057 | 1.142 | 0.379 | 0.814 | 0.35 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Keaschall, Luke vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
Lee, Brooks vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
Clemens, Kody vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
McGonigle, Kevin vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
Torres, Gleyber vs Kremer, Dean: 1B
Keith, Colt vs Kremer, Dean: BB
Greene, Riley vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
Valencia, Eduardo vs Kremer, Dean: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Jeffers, Ryan vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
Bell, Josh vs Anderson, Drew: BB
Lewis, Royce vs Anderson, Drew: K
Larnach, Trevor vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Callahan, Brett vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
Clark, Max vs Kremer, Dean: BB
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Kremer, Dean: K
McKinstry, Zach vs Kremer, Dean: BB
McGonigle, Kevin vs Kremer, Dean: K
— Top 3 —
Culpepper, Kaelen vs Anderson, Drew: K
Jenkins, Walker vs Anderson, Drew: HR +1 run (1-0)
Keaschall, Luke vs Anderson, Drew: OUT GB
Lee, Brooks vs Anderson, Drew: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Torres, Gleyber vs Kremer, Dean: 2B
Keith, Colt vs Kremer, Dean: K
Greene, Riley vs Kremer, Dean: HR +2 runs (1-2)
Valencia, Eduardo vs Kremer, Dean: OUT GB
Callahan, Brett vs Kremer, Dean: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Clemens, Kody vs Anderson, Drew: K
Jeffers, Ryan vs Anderson, Drew: K
Bell, Josh vs Anderson, Drew: K
— Bottom 4 —
Clark, Max vs Kremer, Dean: 1B
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
McKinstry, Zach vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
McGonigle, Kevin vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Lewis, Royce vs Anderson, Drew: K
Larnach, Trevor vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
Culpepper, Kaelen vs Anderson, Drew: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Torres, Gleyber vs Kremer, Dean: K
Keith, Colt vs Kremer, Dean: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Kremer, Dean: BB
Valencia, Eduardo vs Banda, Anthony: 1B
Callahan, Brett vs Banda, Anthony: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Jenkins, Walker vs Anderson, Drew: 1B
Keaschall, Luke vs Anderson, Drew: OUT AIR
Lee, Brooks vs Anderson, Drew: 1B
Clemens, Kody vs Anderson, Drew: K
Jeffers, Ryan vs Anderson, Drew: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Clark, Max vs Banda, Anthony: 1B
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Banda, Anthony: HR +2 runs (1-4)
McKinstry, Zach vs Funderburk, Kody: BB
McGonigle, Kevin vs Funderburk, Kody: BB
Torres, Gleyber vs Funderburk, Kody: K
Keith, Colt vs Funderburk, Kody: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Acton, Garrett: BB
Valencia, Eduardo vs Acton, Garrett: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Bell, Josh vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: 1B
Lewis, Royce vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: OUT GB
Larnach, Trevor vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: K
— Bottom 7 —
Callahan, Brett vs Acton, Garrett: OUT GB
Clark, Max vs Acton, Garrett: K
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Laweryson, Cody: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Culpepper, Kaelen vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: BB
Jenkins, Walker vs Madden, Ty: K
Keaschall, Luke vs Madden, Ty: OUT AIR
Lee, Brooks vs Madden, Ty: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
McKinstry, Zach vs Laweryson, Cody: BB
McGonigle, Kevin vs Laweryson, Cody: K
Torres, Gleyber vs Laweryson, Cody: 1B
Keith, Colt vs Laweryson, Cody: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Adams, Travis: K
— Top 9 —
Clemens, Kody vs Madden, Ty: 1B
Jeffers, Ryan vs Smith, Burch: 2B
Bell, Josh vs Smith, Burch: HR +3 runs (4-4)
Lewis, Royce vs Smith, Burch: OUT GB
Larnach, Trevor vs Vest, Will: 2B
Culpepper, Kaelen vs Vest, Will: 1B
Jenkins, Walker vs Vest, Will: OUT AIR +1 run (5-4)
Keaschall, Luke vs Vest, Will: K
— Bottom 9 —
Valencia, Eduardo vs Adams, Travis: 1B
Callahan, Brett vs Adams, Travis: OUT GB
Clark, Max vs Adams, Travis: OUT AIR
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Sands, Cole: K