Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
TB 7, ATL 1. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
TB 7, ATL 1
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
7 – 1final score
8total runs
49% → 0%ATL win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Peralta, Freddy vs Smith-Shawver, AJ · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
TB 50.6%ATL 49.4%
5.07 – 4.79mean score
9.86mean total
46%NRFI
9.7%extra innings
5.56 / 4.42starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
TB (gold) vs ATL (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
TB per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Díaz, Yandy | 4.962 | 1.432 | 0.148 | 2.195 | 0.453 | 0.883 | 0.554 |
| Aranda, Jonathan | 4.851 | 1.192 | 0.138 | 1.847 | 0.455 | 1.337 | 0.524 |
| Caminero, Junior | 4.738 | 1.25 | 0.248 | 2.34 | 0.555 | 1.058 | 0.764 |
| Hicks, Liam | 4.627 | 1.232 | 0.138 | 1.907 | 0.466 | 0.651 | 0.647 |
| Simpson, Chandler | 4.518 | 1.372 | 0.028 | 1.659 | 0.259 | 0.565 | 0.529 |
| DeLuca, Jonny | 4.408 | 1.11 | 0.11 | 1.694 | 0.282 | 1.023 | 0.585 |
| Mesa Jr., Victor | 4.296 | 0.945 | 0.172 | 1.685 | 0.378 | 1.065 | 0.597 |
| Palacios, Richie | 4.191 | 0.879 | 0.093 | 1.329 | 0.439 | 0.906 | 0.441 |
| Mateo, Jorge | 4.077 | 0.911 | 0.109 | 1.44 | 0.317 | 1.198 | 0.431 |
Projected batting lines
ATL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris II, Michael | 4.659 | 1.318 | 0.222 | 2.303 | 0.216 | 1.055 | 0.585 |
| Acuña Jr., Ronald | 4.539 | 1.083 | 0.192 | 1.906 | 0.493 | 1.202 | 0.527 |
| Olson, Matt | 4.426 | 1.077 | 0.282 | 2.199 | 0.388 | 1.284 | 0.709 |
| Baldwin, Drake | 4.319 | 1.179 | 0.197 | 2.026 | 0.403 | 1.083 | 0.611 |
| Dubón, Mauricio | 4.217 | 1.104 | 0.107 | 1.624 | 0.253 | 0.689 | 0.485 |
| Albies, Ozzie | 4.12 | 1.012 | 0.162 | 1.714 | 0.306 | 0.773 | 0.527 |
| Riley, Austin | 4.014 | 0.886 | 0.138 | 1.481 | 0.29 | 1.341 | 0.454 |
| Yastrzemski, Mike | 3.901 | 0.893 | 0.13 | 1.476 | 0.375 | 1.084 | 0.445 |
| Murphy, Sean | 3.776 | 0.846 | 0.138 | 1.43 | 0.307 | 1.169 | 0.445 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Díaz, Yandy vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT AIR
Aranda, Jonathan vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: 1B
Caminero, Junior vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: BB
Hicks, Liam vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT AIR
Simpson, Chandler vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Harris II, Michael vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT AIR
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Peralta, Freddy: BB
Olson, Matt vs Peralta, Freddy: K
Baldwin, Drake vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
DeLuca, Jonny vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT AIR
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: BB
Palacios, Richie vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: K
Mateo, Jorge vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: BB
Díaz, Yandy vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: K
— Bottom 2 —
Dubón, Mauricio vs Peralta, Freddy: K
Albies, Ozzie vs Peralta, Freddy: 1B
Riley, Austin vs Peralta, Freddy: 1B
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT GB
Murphy, Sean vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Aranda, Jonathan vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT AIR
Caminero, Junior vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: K
Hicks, Liam vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: K
— Bottom 3 —
Harris II, Michael vs Peralta, Freddy: K
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Peralta, Freddy: 1B
Olson, Matt vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT AIR
Baldwin, Drake vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Simpson, Chandler vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: 1B
DeLuca, Jonny vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT AIR
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: K
Palacios, Richie vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Dubón, Mauricio vs Peralta, Freddy: K
Albies, Ozzie vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT AIR
Riley, Austin vs Peralta, Freddy: BB
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Peralta, Freddy: 1B
Murphy, Sean vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Mateo, Jorge vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: 1B
Díaz, Yandy vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: 1B
Aranda, Jonathan vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: BB
Caminero, Junior vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: OUT GB
Hicks, Liam vs Smith-Shawver, AJ: 1B +2 runs (2-0)
Simpson, Chandler vs Dodd, Dylan: 2B +2 runs (4-0)
DeLuca, Jonny vs Dodd, Dylan: K
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Dodd, Dylan: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Harris II, Michael vs Peralta, Freddy: 2B
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Peralta, Freddy: HR +2 runs (4-2)
Olson, Matt vs Peralta, Freddy: OUT GB
Baldwin, Drake vs Peralta, Freddy: 1B
Dubón, Mauricio vs Peralta, Freddy: 1B
Albies, Ozzie vs Booser, Cam: HR +3 runs (4-5)
Riley, Austin vs Booser, Cam: K
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Booser, Cam: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Palacios, Richie vs Dodd, Dylan: K
Mateo, Jorge vs Fuentes, Didier: OUT AIR
Díaz, Yandy vs Fuentes, Didier: BB
Aranda, Jonathan vs Fuentes, Didier: K
— Bottom 6 —
Murphy, Sean vs Baker, Bryan: K
Harris II, Michael vs Baker, Bryan: K
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Baker, Bryan: K
— Top 7 —
Caminero, Junior vs Fuentes, Didier: OUT AIR
Hicks, Liam vs Payamps, Joel: OUT GB
Simpson, Chandler vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Olson, Matt vs Baker, Bryan: K
Baldwin, Drake vs Cleavinger, Garrett: K
Dubón, Mauricio vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
DeLuca, Jonny vs Payamps, Joel: 1B
Mesa Jr., Victor vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
Palacios, Richie vs Iglesias, Raisel: 1B
Mateo, Jorge vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT AIR
Díaz, Yandy vs Iglesias, Raisel: K
— Bottom 8 —
Albies, Ozzie vs Cleavinger, Garrett: 1B
Riley, Austin vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT GB
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Cleavinger, Garrett: BB
Murphy, Sean vs Cleavinger, Garrett: OUT AIR
Harris II, Michael vs Sulser, Cole: 1B
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Sulser, Cole: K
— Top 9 —
Aranda, Jonathan vs Iglesias, Raisel: BB
Caminero, Junior vs Lee, Dylan: 1B
Hicks, Liam vs Lee, Dylan: OUT AIR
Simpson, Chandler vs Lee, Dylan: OUT GB
DeLuca, Jonny vs Lee, Dylan: K