Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-06-15

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-06-15

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 1

← 2026-06-16 2026-06-14 →

Lane Health 2026-06-19

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Cj Abrams

WSH vs KC | +590

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.5%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Yandy Díaz

TB vs LAD | vs Eric Lauer

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Eric Lauer, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

BetMGM +545 26.0% 10.5% Strong Zone

DraftKings +545 26.0% 10.5% Strong Zone

James Wood

WSH vs KC | vs Mitch Spence

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mitch Spence, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Cj Abrams

WSH vs KC | vs Mitch Spence

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.5%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.1% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mitch Spence, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +590 26.0% 11.5% Strong Zone

BetMGM +585 26.0% 11.4% Strong Zone

DraftKings +585 26.0% 11.4% Strong Zone

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT vs ATH | vs J.t. Ginn

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against J.t. Ginn, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +640 17.9% 4.4% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Cj Abrams

WSH vs KC | vs Mitch Spence

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.5%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.1% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mitch Spence, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +590 26.0% 11.5% Strong Zone

BetMGM +585 26.0% 11.4% Strong Zone

DraftKings +585 26.0% 11.4% Strong Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs LAD | vs Eric Lauer

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Eric Lauer, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +545 26.0% 10.5% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Yandy Díaz

TB vs LAD | vs Eric Lauer

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Eric Lauer, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

BetMGM +545 26.0% 10.5% Strong Zone

DraftKings +545 26.0% 10.5% Strong Zone

James Wood

WSH vs KC | vs Mitch Spence

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mitch Spence, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Yandy Díaz TB vs LAD | +550 26.0% | Strong Zone

James Wood WSH vs KC | +485 26.0% | Strong Zone

Joint Prob 6.7%

Joint Gap 4.1%

Structure Distinct Games