Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-09-09

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-09-09

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-09-10 2026-09-08 →

Lane Health 2026-09-11

Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Derek Hill

PHI vs HOU | +705

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 18.6%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Jasson Domínguez

NYY vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 17.6%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.8% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +640 31.1% 17.6% Premium Zone

BetMGM +635 31.1% 17.5% Premium Zone

DraftKings +635 31.1% 17.5% Premium Zone

Ben Rice

NYY vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 11.1%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +400 31.1% 11.1% Premium Zone

BetMGM +395 31.1% 10.9% Premium Zone

DraftKings +390 31.1% 10.7% Premium Zone

Derek Hill

PHI vs HOU | vs Hunter Brown

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 18.6%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.6% Adjusted from 31.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against Hunter Brown, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +705 31.0% 18.6% Premium Zone

FanDuel +705 31.0% 18.6% Premium Zone

BetMGM +700 31.0% 18.5% Premium Zone

James Wood

WSH vs SD | vs Walker Buehler

#10

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Parlay Candidate

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.0%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Walker Buehler, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +455 26.0% 8.0% Strong Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Derek Hill

PHI vs HOU | vs Hunter Brown

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 18.6%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.6% Adjusted from 31.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against Hunter Brown, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +705 31.0% 18.6% Premium Zone

FanDuel +705 31.0% 18.6% Premium Zone

BetMGM +700 31.0% 18.5% Premium Zone

Jasson Domínguez

NYY vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 17.6%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.8% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +640 31.1% 17.6% Premium Zone

DraftKings +635 31.1% 17.5% Premium Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Jasson Domínguez

NYY vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 17.6%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.8% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +640 31.1% 17.6% Premium Zone

BetMGM +635 31.1% 17.5% Premium Zone

DraftKings +635 31.1% 17.5% Premium Zone

Ben Rice

NYY vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 11.1%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +400 31.1% 11.1% Premium Zone

BetMGM +395 31.1% 10.9% Premium Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.