Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

CWS at STL

Anthony Kay vs Matthew Liberatore · 8:15 PM ET

Scheduled 8:15 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CWS or STL?

The run projection leans CWS over STL.

Projected runs: CWS 4.6, STL 4.4. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CWS 4.6 · STL 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.0 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line CWS -1.5 · STL 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.0% · YRFI 52.0% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 8 Available in 8 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

8 matched rows

Total bases · CWS vs STL Austin Hays Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.1% F-- V--

Model 40.1% Market 26.0% Model-market gap +14.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs STL Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.2% F-- V--

Model 41.2% Market 27.8% Model-market gap +13.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs STL Edgar Quero Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.8% F-- V--

Model 41.8% Market 29.0% Model-market gap +12.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs STL Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.8% F-- V--

Model 44.8% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +11.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs STL Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.3% F-- V--

Model 45.3% Market 33.9% Model-market gap +11.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · CWS vs STL Austin Hays Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.9% F12.6% V7.5%

Model 17.0% Market 11.7% Model-market gap +5.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · CWS vs STL Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.0% F12.5% V7.1%

Model 15.9% Market 11.7% Model-market gap +4.2 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · STL vs CWS Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P79.8% F-- V50.2%

Model 79.8% Market 52.1% Provisional model gap +27.7 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Chicago WS win contract 50.5% Bid 50c · ask 51c

St. Louis win contract 49.5% Bid 49c · ask 50c

First inning run: Yes 48.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.