Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

SD at SF

Robbie Ray vs Anthony Molina · 10:15 PM ET

Scheduled 10:15 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean SD or SF?

The run projection leans SD over SF.

Projected runs: SD 4.4, SF 4.2. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs SD 4.4 · SF 4.2 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.6 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line SD -1.5 · SF 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.1% · YRFI 49.9% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 7 Available in 7 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

7 matched rows

Total bases · SF vs SD Luis Arraez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.4% F-- V--

Model 36.8% Market 20.8% Model-market gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · SF vs SD Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.6% F-- V--

Model 38.6% Market 23.8% Model-market gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SF vs SD Rafael Devers Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.6% F-- V--

Model 38.6% Market 23.8% Model-market gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SF vs SD Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.5% F-- V--

Model 44.5% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · SF vs SD Heliot Ramos Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.5% F13.4% V11.8%

Model 16.9% Market 13.7% Model-market gap +3.1 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · SD vs SF Robbie Ray Over 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P58.5% F-- V45.6%

Model 58.5% Market 50.0% Provisional model gap +8.5 pts

Open board

Hits · SF vs SD Luis Arraez Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P30.4% F-- V--

Model 72.3% Market 69.7% Provisional model gap +2.6 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

San Diego win contract 57.5% Bid 57c · ask 58c

San Francisco win contract 43.5% Bid 43c · ask 44c

First inning run: Yes 45.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.