Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

CLE at BAL

Bibee, Tanner vs Young, Brandon · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CLE or BAL?

Mithrandir leans BAL over CLE.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

52.9% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CLE 4.3 · BAL 4.7 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.0 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line CLE 1.5 · BAL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.1% · YRFI 50.9% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 24 Available in 24 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

24 matched rows

Total bases · BAL vs CLE Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.6% F-- V--

Model 34.6% Market 17.2% Model-market gap +17.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL José Ramírez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.7% F-- V--

Model 34.7% Market 17.4% Model-market gap +17.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs CLE Pete Alonso Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.9% F-- V--

Model 37.9% Market 22.7% Model-market gap +15.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL Steven Kwan Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.6% F-- V--

Model 38.6% Market 23.8% Model-market gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs CLE Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.0% F-- V--

Model 39.0% Market 24.4% Model-market gap +14.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs CLE Taylor Ward Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.8% F-- V--

Model 39.8% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs CLE Leody Taveras Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.8% F-- V--

Model 43.8% Market 31.7% Model-market gap +12.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL Bo Naylor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.9% F-- V--

Model 46.9% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · BAL vs CLE Colton Cowser Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.9% F-- V--

Model 46.9% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.4% F-- V--

Model 47.4% Market 37.0% Model-market gap +10.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL Angel Martínez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.0% F-- V--

Model 48.0% Market 37.7% Model-market gap +10.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.8% F-- V--

Model 50.8% Market 41.7% Model-market gap +9.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs BAL David Fry Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P76.7% F-- V--

Model 76.7% Market 70.1% Model-market gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · BAL vs CLE Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.7% F11.7% V12.4%

Model 18.4% Market 11.9% Model-market gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs BAL Daniel Schneemann Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.0% F9.7% V8.6%

Model 16.8% Market 10.6% Model-market gap +6.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs BAL Bo Naylor Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.8% F13.2% V11.7%

Model 18.1% Market 13.4% Model-market gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.