Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
CLE 9, BAL 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CLE 9, BAL 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
9 – 5final score
14total runs
53% → 0%BAL win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
Bibee, Tanner vs Young, Brandon · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CLE 47.1%BAL 52.9%
4.28 – 4.43mean score
8.71mean total
52%NRFI
10.3%extra innings
5.88 / 4.73starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CLE (gold) vs BAL (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CLE per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwan, Steven | 4.828 | 1.242 | 0.038 | 1.538 | 0.572 | 0.677 | 0.306 |
| Bazzana, Travis | 4.723 | 1.154 | 0.128 | 1.799 | 0.454 | 1.142 | 0.505 |
| Ramírez, José | 4.609 | 1.094 | 0.133 | 1.734 | 0.48 | 0.769 | 0.566 |
| Adell, Jo | 4.496 | 1.127 | 0.148 | 1.826 | 0.232 | 1.233 | 0.638 |
| Lowe, Nathaniel | 4.38 | 1.082 | 0.168 | 1.861 | 0.359 | 1.136 | 0.62 |
| Martínez, Angel | 4.273 | 1.065 | 0.159 | 1.81 | 0.196 | 1.074 | 0.557 |
| Bailey, Patrick | 4.163 | 0.856 | 0.099 | 1.308 | 0.337 | 1.131 | 0.362 |
| Halpin, Petey | 4.053 | 0.878 | 0.087 | 1.306 | 0.227 | 0.984 | 0.346 |
| Rocchio, Brayan | 3.941 | 0.972 | 0.095 | 1.452 | 0.25 | 0.731 | 0.381 |
Projected batting lines
BAL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holliday, Jackson | 4.582 | 1.029 | 0.131 | 1.624 | 0.429 | 1.233 | 0.422 |
| Alonso, Pete | 4.469 | 1.13 | 0.25 | 2.153 | 0.44 | 1.214 | 0.644 |
| Henderson, Gunnar | 4.356 | 0.972 | 0.174 | 1.722 | 0.363 | 1.081 | 0.517 |
| Mayo, Coby | 4.246 | 0.976 | 0.252 | 1.97 | 0.318 | 1.411 | 0.646 |
| Basallo, Samuel | 4.149 | 1.009 | 0.228 | 1.921 | 0.328 | 1.163 | 0.595 |
| Beavers, Dylan | 4.043 | 0.928 | 0.107 | 1.444 | 0.351 | 1.163 | 0.38 |
| Alexander, Blaze | 3.939 | 1.087 | 0.082 | 1.538 | 0.273 | 1.028 | 0.401 |
| Cowser, Colton | 3.829 | 0.766 | 0.159 | 1.39 | 0.383 | 1.275 | 0.461 |
| Taveras, Leody | 3.707 | 0.78 | 0.085 | 1.198 | 0.306 | 1.127 | 0.361 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Kwan, Steven vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
Bazzana, Travis vs Young, Brandon: K
Ramírez, José vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Holliday, Jackson vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Alonso, Pete vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Henderson, Gunnar vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Adell, Jo vs Young, Brandon: 1B
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Young, Brandon: 1B
Martínez, Angel vs Young, Brandon: K
Bailey, Patrick vs Young, Brandon: OUT AIR
Halpin, Petey vs Young, Brandon: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Mayo, Coby vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Basallo, Samuel vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Beavers, Dylan vs Bibee, Tanner: K
— Top 3 —
Rocchio, Brayan vs Young, Brandon: 1B
Kwan, Steven vs Young, Brandon: BB
Bazzana, Travis vs Young, Brandon: 2B +2 runs (2-0)
Ramírez, José vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
Adell, Jo vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Young, Brandon: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Alexander, Blaze vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Cowser, Colton vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Taveras, Leody vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Martínez, Angel vs Young, Brandon: OUT AIR
Bailey, Patrick vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
Halpin, Petey vs Young, Brandon: HR +1 run (3-0)
Rocchio, Brayan vs Young, Brandon: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Holliday, Jackson vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Alonso, Pete vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Henderson, Gunnar vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Kwan, Steven vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
Bazzana, Travis vs Young, Brandon: 1B
Ramírez, José vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
Adell, Jo vs Young, Brandon: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Mayo, Coby vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Basallo, Samuel vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Beavers, Dylan vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Young, Brandon: K
Martínez, Angel vs Young, Brandon: HR +1 run (4-0)
Bailey, Patrick vs Wolfram, Grant: OUT GB
Halpin, Petey vs Wolfram, Grant: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Alexander, Blaze vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Cowser, Colton vs Bibee, Tanner: 1B
Taveras, Leody vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Holliday, Jackson vs Bibee, Tanner: BB
Alonso, Pete vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Rocchio, Brayan vs Wolfram, Grant: OUT AIR
Kwan, Steven vs Wolfram, Grant: 1B
Bazzana, Travis vs Wolfram, Grant: OUT AIR
Ramírez, José vs Walker, Josh: K
— Bottom 7 —
Henderson, Gunnar vs Bibee, Tanner: 1B
Mayo, Coby vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Basallo, Samuel vs Bibee, Tanner: K
— Top 8 —
Adell, Jo vs Walker, Josh: HR +1 run (5-0)
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Walker, Josh: OUT GB
Martínez, Angel vs Walker, Josh: 2B
Bailey, Patrick vs Walker, Josh: 2B +1 run (6-0)
Halpin, Petey vs Walker, Josh: K
Rocchio, Brayan vs Eflin, Zach: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Beavers, Dylan vs Bibee, Tanner: HR +1 run (6-1)
Alexander, Blaze vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Cowser, Colton vs Aleman, Franco: OUT GB
Taveras, Leody vs Aleman, Franco: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Kwan, Steven vs Eflin, Zach: K
Bazzana, Travis vs Eflin, Zach: HR +1 run (7-1)
Ramírez, José vs Eflin, Zach: OUT AIR
Adell, Jo vs Sanders, Cam: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
Holliday, Jackson vs Aleman, Franco: OUT GB
Alonso, Pete vs Aleman, Franco: OUT GB
Henderson, Gunnar vs Festa, Matt: OUT GB