Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-08 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
50
Matched
180
Lineups
72
HR BOARD 2026-06-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2
 26.0%Fangorn 15.5%market +10.5pp
P 22.2
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
02
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 15.7%Fangorn 8.7%market +7.0pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.0pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 12.9%market +5.0pp
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
04
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.7pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.7pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 11.1%market +3.2pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.3pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
06
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 7
 11.4%Fangorn 8.5%market +2.9pp
P 12.5
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.1pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
07
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
08
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.9pp
P 13.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.6pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
09
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 13.7%market +1.8pp
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.6pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
10
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 14.7%market +0.8pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.3pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
11
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -0.5pp
P 21.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.1pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
12
Daniel Schneemann CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
 10.3%Fangorn 11.1%market -0.8pp
P 15.2
F 10.3
V 10.3
4.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
13
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.1pp
P 19.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
5.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
14
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 6
 9.1%Fangorn 13.4%market -4.3pp
P 15.0
F 9.1
V 9.1
5.9pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
15
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 6
 2.8%Fangorn 9.5%market -6.7pp
P 14.0
F 2.8
V 2.8
11.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
16
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.7pp
P 9.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
3.9pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
17
Miguel Andujar SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6
 14.2%Fangorn 9.1%market +5.1pp
P 12.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.8pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
18
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 13.9%market +3.3pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
19
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 8.9
F 10.3
V 10.3
1.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
20
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 15.5%market +2.4pp
P 17.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
21
Matt Chapman SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 15.4%market +1.8pp
P 16.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
22
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 16.3%market +1.6pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
23
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 18.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
24
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 7
 9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 9.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
0.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 11.1%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.2pp
P 9.4
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
26
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
 13.6%Fangorn 12.4%market +1.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
27
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 17.0%market +0.9pp
P 19.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.4pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
28
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 20.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
29
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 16.7%market +0.5pp
P 16.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
30
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -1.3pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
31
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -1.8pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
32
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 15.7%Fangorn 17.5%market -1.8pp
P 19.1
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.4pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
33
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 15.7%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.0pp
P 15.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
34
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -2.0pp
P 19.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
35
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -2.4pp
P 16.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.8pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
36
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -2.5pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
37
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.8pp
P 18.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.6pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
38
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.1pp
P 18.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.6pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
39
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.5pp
P 18.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.9pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
40
Manny Machado SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 19.6%market -3.9pp
P 18.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.5pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
41
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
 11.1%Fangorn 15.3%market -4.2pp
P 15.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
4.7pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
42
Adolis García PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.5pp
P 16.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.8pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
43
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 22.5%market -5.3pp
P 21.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.0pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
44
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 15.7%Fangorn 22.0%market -6.2pp
P 20.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
45
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -6.6pp
P 18.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
46
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 4.7%Fangorn 11.6%market -6.8pp
P 14.2
F 4.7
V 4.7
9.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
47
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 23.0%market -7.5pp
P 19.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
48
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -7.5pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.4pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
49
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 26.0%market -11.8pp
P 16.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
50
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 26.0%market -12.7pp
P 18.5
F 13.3
V 13.3
5.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1587roster/transaction rows
Lineups72confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.