Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
50
Matched
180
Lineups
72
HR BOARD 2026-06-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 11.9%market +7.6pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
02
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 12.9%market +7.3pp
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
03
Daniel Schneemann CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
 10.3%Valinor 10.6%market +6.0pp
P 15.2
F 10.3
V 10.3
4.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
04
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 11.1%market +5.9pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.3pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
05
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 6
 2.8%Valinor 9.1%market +4.8pp
P 14.0
F 2.8
V 2.8
11.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
06
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 8.7%market +4.7pp
P 15.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.0pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 14.7%market +4.6pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.3pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
08
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
 13.4%Valinor 8.7%market +4.0pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.7pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
09
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 17.3%market +3.8pp
P 19.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
5.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
10
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 7
 11.4%Valinor 8.5%market +3.7pp
P 12.5
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.1pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
11
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 15.5%market +3.7pp
P 22.2
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
12
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 6
 9.1%Valinor 12.8%market +3.3pp
P 15.0
F 9.1
V 9.1
5.9pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
13
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 15.5%Valinor 13.7%market +3.1pp
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.6pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
14
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 12.3%market +2.8pp
P 13.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.6pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
15
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 16.9%market +2.7pp
P 21.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.1pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
16
Miguel Andujar SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 9.1%market +2.2pp
P 12.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.8pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 13.9%market +2.1pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
18
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
 11.1%Valinor 14.6%market +1.8pp
P 15.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
4.7pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
19
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +1.7pp
P 20.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
20
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 12.4%market +1.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
21
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 19.4%market +1.4pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
22
Matt Chapman SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 15.4%market +1.4pp
P 16.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
23
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 17.0%market +1.2pp
P 19.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.4pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
24
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 7
 9.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 9.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
0.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 16.3%market +0.9pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
26
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 16.7%market +0.8pp
P 19.1
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.4pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
27
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 11.1%Valinor 9.8%market +0.6pp
P 9.4
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.7pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
28
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 4.7%Valinor 11.1%market +0.5pp
P 14.2
F 4.7
V 4.7
9.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
29
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 8.9
F 10.3
V 10.3
1.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 15.5%market +0.2pp
P 17.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
31
Adolis García PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 18.2%market -0.2pp
P 16.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.8pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
32
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 17.1%market -0.3pp
P 18.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.9pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
33
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 17.1%market -0.4pp
P 16.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
34
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 15.5%market -0.4pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
35
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
 13.4%Valinor 7.7%market -0.6pp
P 9.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
3.9pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 22.0%market -0.7pp
P 21.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.0pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
37
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 18.6%market -0.7pp
P 19.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
38
Manny Machado SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 19.1%market -0.7pp
P 18.2
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.5pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
39
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 17.1%market -0.8pp
P 15.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
40
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 18.4%market -0.8pp
P 18.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.6pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
41
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 16.8%market -1.0pp
P 18.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.4pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
42
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 17.9%market -1.1pp
P 18.1
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.6pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
43
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 20.3%market -1.5pp
P 18.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.5pp 0.906xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
44
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 21.5%market -1.8pp
P 20.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
45
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 19.2%market -2.0pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
46
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
 15.5%Valinor 23.0%market -2.5pp
P 19.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
47
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 21.7%market -3.3pp
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.4pp 0.910xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
48
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 19.6%market -3.7pp
P 16.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.8pp 0.962xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
49
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 13.3%Valinor 26.0%market -7.1pp
P 18.5
F 13.3
V 13.3
5.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
50
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 26.0%market -8.4pp
P 16.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.5pp 0.910xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1587roster/transaction rows
Lineups72confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.