Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-02 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
50
Matched
180
Lineups
117
HR BOARD 2026-07-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 3
 21.1%Fangorn 12.7%market +8.4pp
P 18.5
F 21.1
V 14.1
7.0pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
02
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 2
 21.1%Fangorn 14.2%market +6.9pp
P 18.6
F 21.1
V 15.4
5.7pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
03
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 8.7%market +6.2pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.2pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 8.7%market +6.2pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 13.3
1.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
 21.1%Fangorn 15.0%market +6.1pp
P 21.5
F 21.1
V 13.2
8.3pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
06
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 10.1%market +5.4pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 13.0
3.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
07
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
 13.7%Fangorn 8.5%market +5.2pp
P 12.5
F 13.7
V 13.1
1.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
08
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +5.1pp
P 14.3
F 14.9
V 13.9
1.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
09
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 10.5%market +4.4pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 12.3
2.9pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
10
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 3
 17.5%Fangorn 13.3%market +4.2pp
P 18.7
F 17.5
V 14.4
4.3pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
11
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 12.5%market +4.1pp
P 20.5
F 16.6
V 14.4
6.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
12
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 14.9%Fangorn 10.9%market +4.1pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 13.2
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
13
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
 16.3%Fangorn 12.3%market +4.0pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 12.9
3.4pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
14
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 12.7%market +3.9pp
P 19.2
F 16.6
V 12.9
6.3pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
15
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +3.6pp
P 18.8
F 16.6
V 13.5
5.3pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
16
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 13.7%market +2.9pp
P 19.1
F 16.6
V 12.9
6.2pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
17
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 16.3%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.8pp
P 17.0
F 16.3
V 13.8
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
18
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 10.6%market +2.6pp
P 15.4
F 13.3
V 13.6
2.2pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
19
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 14.6%Fangorn 12.0%market +2.6pp
P 14.8
F 14.6
V 14.8
0.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
20
Josh Jung TEX
IN
TEX vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 7
 14.9%Fangorn 12.6%market +2.4pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 11.9
3.0pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
21
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 14.5%Fangorn 12.5%market +2.0pp
P 16.0
F 14.5
V 14.9
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
22
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.5pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.6pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
23
Brandon Nimmo TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 14.9%market +1.4pp
P 17.5
F 16.3
V 14.3
3.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
24
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 16.6%Fangorn 15.3%market +1.4pp
P 15.3
F 16.6
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
25
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.3pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.5pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
26
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
 13.7%Fangorn 12.8%market +0.9pp
P 17.0
F 13.7
V 12.1
4.9pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
27
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.6pp
P 10.1
F 13.3
V 12.7
3.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.6
F 12.8
V 12.9
3.3pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 16.6%Fangorn 16.2%market +0.5pp
P 18.3
F 16.6
V 16.6
1.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
30
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 16.6%Fangorn 17.1%market -0.5pp
P 17.6
F 16.6
V 17.7
1.1pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
31
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 16.0%market -1.1pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 17.7
3.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
32
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.2pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
33
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN Triple
CLE vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 17.5%market -1.2pp
P 18.2
F 16.3
V 16.1
2.2pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
34
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 15.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.3pp
P 18.0
F 15.6
V 14.8
3.2pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
35
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending Triple
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -1.4pp
P 17.3
F 16.6
V 15.8
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
36
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 18.5%market -1.9pp
P 19.4
F 16.6
V 16.6
2.8pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
37
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
38
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 14.5%Fangorn 17.2%market -2.7pp
P 13.5
F 14.5
V 18.2
4.6pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
39
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 1
 4.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.2pp
P 5.8
F 4.8
V 9.3
4.4pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
40
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 16.3%Fangorn 19.6%market -3.3pp
P 15.7
F 16.3
V 17.4
1.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
41
Kerry Carpenter DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 16.6%Fangorn 20.2%market -3.6pp
P 16.4
F 16.6
V 16.1
0.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
42
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
 14.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -3.7pp
P 14.8
F 14.6
V 15.2
0.6pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 16.8
F 14.9
V 15.5
1.9pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
44
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
 14.5%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.7pp
P 14.0
F 14.5
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
45
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -5.3pp
P 16.9
F 16.6
V 14.0
2.9pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
46
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 21.7%market -5.4pp
P 18.6
F 16.3
V 14.8
3.8pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
47
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 21.7%market -5.4pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 16.4
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
48
Jake Burger TEX
IN Triple
TEX vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -5.5pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 14.6
0.9pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
49
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
 14.6%Fangorn 23.3%market -8.6pp
P 16.4
F 14.6
V 14.9
1.7pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
50
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 16.3%Fangorn 29.8%market -13.6pp
P 16.6
F 16.3
V 18.9
2.6pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1674roster/transaction rows
Lineups117confirmed starters
Triple6cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.