Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-02 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
50
Matched
180
Lineups
117
HR BOARD 2026-07-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 2
 14.0%Valinor 8.7%market +5.0pp
P 13.7
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.2pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 13.3%Valinor 8.7%market +4.3pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 13.3
1.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
 13.1%Valinor 8.5%market +4.3pp
P 12.5
F 13.7
V 13.1
1.3pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
04
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 13.9%Valinor 9.8%market +3.8pp
P 14.3
F 14.9
V 13.9
1.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
05
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 6
 13.6%Valinor 10.6%market +2.6pp
P 15.4
F 13.3
V 13.6
2.2pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
06
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 13.0%Valinor 10.1%market +2.5pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 13.0
3.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
07
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 16.4%Valinor 13.5%market +2.4pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.6pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
08
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 14.8%Valinor 12.0%market +2.3pp
P 14.8
F 14.6
V 14.8
0.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
09
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 13.2%Valinor 10.9%market +2.0pp
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 13.2
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
10
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 14.9%Valinor 12.5%market +1.9pp
P 16.0
F 14.5
V 14.9
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
11
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6
 12.3%Valinor 10.5%market +1.5pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 12.3
2.9pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
12
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 12.5%market +1.4pp
P 20.5
F 16.6
V 14.4
6.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
13
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 3
 14.1%Valinor 12.7%market +0.8pp
P 18.5
F 21.1
V 14.1
7.0pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
14
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs ATLHurston Waldrep · slot 3
 14.4%Valinor 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 18.7
F 17.5
V 14.4
4.3pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
15
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 2
 15.4%Valinor 14.2%market +0.6pp
P 18.6
F 21.1
V 15.4
5.7pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
16
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 5
 14.6%Valinor 13.6%market +0.4pp
P 16.1
F 14.9
V 14.6
1.5pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
17
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
 12.9%Valinor 12.3%market +0.2pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 12.9
3.4pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
18
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 13.0%market -0.0pp
P 18.8
F 16.6
V 13.5
5.3pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
19
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 13.8%Valinor 13.6%market -0.3pp
P 17.0
F 16.3
V 13.8
3.2pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
20
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 12.9%Valinor 13.3%market -0.4pp
P 19.2
F 16.6
V 12.9
6.3pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
21
Josh Jung TEX
IN
TEX vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 7
 11.9%Valinor 12.6%market -1.1pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 11.9
3.0pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
22
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
 12.1%Valinor 13.0%market -1.3pp
P 17.0
F 13.7
V 12.1
4.9pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
23
Brandon Nimmo TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
 14.3%Valinor 15.1%market -1.4pp
P 17.5
F 16.3
V 14.3
3.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
24
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 14.4%market -1.5pp
P 19.1
F 16.6
V 12.9
6.2pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
25
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
 13.2%Valinor 15.3%market -2.6pp
P 21.5
F 21.1
V 13.2
8.3pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
26
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 18.9%Valinor 29.3%market -11.5pp
P 16.6
F 16.3
V 18.9
2.6pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
27
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1
 12.9%Valinor 7.7%market +4.9pp
P 9.6
F 12.8
V 12.9
3.3pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 12.7%Valinor 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 10.1
F 13.3
V 12.7
3.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 17.7%Valinor 15.2%market +1.8pp
P 13.8
F 14.9
V 17.7
3.9pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
30
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 1
 9.3%Valinor 7.7%market +1.3pp
P 5.8
F 4.8
V 9.3
4.4pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 18.2%Valinor 16.4%market +1.1pp
P 13.5
F 14.5
V 18.2
4.6pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
32
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 17.7%Valinor 16.3%market +0.8pp
P 17.6
F 16.6
V 17.7
1.1pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
33
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
 16.6%Valinor 16.5%market -0.5pp
P 18.3
F 16.6
V 16.6
1.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
34
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 15.4%Valinor 15.6%market -0.7pp
P 15.3
F 16.6
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
35
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 16.0%Valinor 16.4%market -1.0pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
36
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 14.7%Valinor 15.7%market -1.6pp
P 16.4
F 14.9
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
37
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN Triple
CLE vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 16.1%Valinor 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 18.2
F 16.3
V 16.1
2.2pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
38
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 16.6%Valinor 18.1%market -2.1pp
P 19.4
F 16.6
V 16.6
2.8pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
39
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending Triple
COL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 15.8%Valinor 17.4%market -2.2pp
P 17.3
F 16.6
V 15.8
1.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
40
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 16.5%market -2.3pp
P 18.0
F 15.6
V 14.8
3.2pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
41
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 17.4%Valinor 19.1%market -2.4pp
P 15.7
F 16.3
V 17.4
1.8pp 0.945xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
42
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
 15.2%Valinor 17.9%market -3.3pp
P 14.8
F 14.6
V 15.2
0.6pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
43
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 18.6%market -3.7pp
P 16.8
F 14.9
V 15.5
1.9pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
44
Kerry Carpenter DET
IN
DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 16.1%Valinor 19.7%market -4.3pp
P 16.4
F 16.6
V 16.1
0.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
45
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 16.4%Valinor 21.2%market -5.6pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 16.4
2.4pp 1.093xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
46
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending Triple
LAD vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
 13.6%Valinor 18.8%market -5.8pp
P 14.0
F 14.5
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.921xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
47
Jake Burger TEX
IN Triple
TEX vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 14.6%Valinor 19.7%market -5.9pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 14.6
0.9pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
48
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 21.2%market -7.2pp
P 18.6
F 16.3
V 14.8
3.8pp 1.231xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
49
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs KCStephen Kolek · slot 4
 14.0%Valinor 21.5%market -8.2pp
P 16.9
F 16.6
V 14.0
2.9pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
50
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
 14.9%Valinor 22.7%market -8.6pp
P 16.4
F 14.6
V 14.9
1.7pp 1.120xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1674roster/transaction rows
Lineups117confirmed starters
Triple6cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.