Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
60
Matched
207
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-07-03 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 15.4%Valinor 9.8%market +5.2pp
P 9.6
F 14.9
V 15.4
5.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
02
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 16.6%Valinor 11.9%market +4.2pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 16.6
2.1pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
03
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 11.1%market +4.2pp
P 18.1
F 13.6
V 15.7
4.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
04
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
 17.0%Valinor 12.4%market +4.1pp
P 15.6
F 15.6
V 17.0
1.4pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
05
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 15.4%Valinor 11.7%market +3.3pp
P 13.6
F 14.9
V 15.4
1.8pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
06
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 17.7%Valinor 13.9%market +3.2pp
P 20.2
F 16.6
V 17.7
3.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
07
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 12.3%Valinor 8.9%market +3.2pp
P 15.9
F 16.3
V 12.3
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
08
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 16.1%Valinor 13.0%market +2.6pp
P 13.9
F 15.6
V 16.1
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
09
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 16.6%Valinor 14.4%market +1.7pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 16.6
2.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
10
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 14.6%Valinor 12.7%market +1.3pp
P 20.2
F 21.1
V 14.6
6.5pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
11
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 16.0%Valinor 14.2%market +1.2pp
P 20.3
F 21.1
V 16.0
5.1pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
12
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 13.6%market +1.0pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 15.2
0.6pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
13
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 16.6%Valinor 15.0%market +1.0pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
14
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 13.1%market +0.9pp
P 21.2
F 16.6
V 14.5
6.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
15
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 16.5%Valinor 15.0%market +0.8pp
P 20.9
F 16.6
V 16.5
4.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
16
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 13.9%Valinor 13.1%market +0.3pp
P 17.5
F 16.6
V 13.9
3.6pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
17
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 12.0%Valinor 11.7%market -0.2pp
P 19.6
F 16.6
V 12.0
7.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
18
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 14.0%market -0.4pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 14.1
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
19
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.0%Valinor 13.0%market -0.5pp
P 17.8
F 16.6
V 13.0
4.8pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
20
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 17.1%Valinor 17.7%market -1.3pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 17.1
3.3pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
21
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 14.0%Valinor 15.0%market -1.5pp
P 16.9
F 15.6
V 14.0
2.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
22
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 15.3%Valinor 16.5%market -1.8pp
P 18.0
F 16.6
V 15.3
2.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
23
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 11.8%Valinor 13.1%market -1.8pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
24
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 16.5%market -2.8pp
P 18.8
F 16.3
V 14.3
4.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
25
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 15.3%Valinor 25.8%market -11.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.8pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
26
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 17.8%Valinor 29.3%market -12.5pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 17.8
1.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
27
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 14.5%Valinor 7.7%market +6.5pp
P 10.1
F 15.5
V 14.5
5.4pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 7.7%market +5.6pp
P 5.0
F 12.8
V 13.6
8.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 13.5%Valinor 7.7%market +5.5pp
P 7.0
F 13.7
V 13.5
6.7pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 12.6%Valinor 7.7%market +4.6pp
P 4.3
F 11.0
V 12.6
8.3pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7
 11.0%Valinor 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 7.8
F 13.3
V 11.0
5.5pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 12.4%Valinor 9.1%market +3.0pp
P 11.7
F 15.6
V 12.4
3.9pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
33
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 2.5
F 4.8
V 10.2
7.7pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 18.6%Valinor 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 18.6
3.3pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
35
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 15.8%Valinor 15.5%market -0.2pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 15.8
1.9pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
36
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 14.0%market -0.4pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.0pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
37
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 16.4%Valinor 16.4%market -0.5pp
P 13.8
F 16.3
V 16.4
2.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
38
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending Triple
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 16.9%Valinor 17.1%market -0.8pp
P 12.3
F 14.6
V 16.9
4.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
39
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 16.8%Valinor 17.4%market -1.2pp
P 20.6
F 16.6
V 16.8
3.9pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
40
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 16.4%Valinor 17.1%market -1.2pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.5pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
41
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 14.0%Valinor 14.8%market -1.3pp
P 13.1
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
42
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 16.1%Valinor 17.1%market -1.7pp
P 14.3
F 16.3
V 16.1
2.0pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
43
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 14.3%Valinor 15.7%market -2.0pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
44
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 16.2%Valinor 17.7%market -2.1pp
P 17.3
F 15.6
V 16.2
1.7pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
45
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 16.4%market -2.2pp
P 13.4
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.5pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
46
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 14.6%Valinor 16.4%market -2.3pp
P 17.7
F 16.3
V 14.6
3.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
47
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 14.9%Valinor 17.1%market -2.8pp
P 17.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
48
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 14.9%Valinor 17.9%market -3.6pp
P 13.2
F 14.6
V 14.9
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
49
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 15.2%Valinor 18.6%market -4.0pp
P 16.6
F 14.9
V 15.2
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
50
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 15.6%Valinor 18.9%market -4.0pp
P 20.8
F 16.3
V 15.6
5.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
51
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 16.7%Valinor 20.3%market -4.3pp
P 16.6
F 16.3
V 16.7
0.4pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
52
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 14.3%Valinor 18.2%market -4.5pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.3
4.2pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
53
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 22.0%market -5.6pp
P 17.8
F 15.6
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
54
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 15.4%Valinor 20.3%market -5.6pp
P 17.7
F 14.9
V 15.4
2.8pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
55
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 15.6%Valinor 20.8%market -5.9pp
P 18.6
F 16.6
V 15.6
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
56
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 22.4%market -6.0pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 17.2
3.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
57
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 13.3%Valinor 18.8%market -6.1pp
P 12.0
F 14.5
V 13.3
2.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
58
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 15.2%Valinor 21.5%market -7.0pp
P 17.2
F 16.6
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
59
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 15.4%Valinor 23.6%market -8.9pp
P 19.9
F 21.1
V 15.4
5.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books
60
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 14.4%Valinor 22.7%market -9.2pp
P 13.5
F 14.5
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1673roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple1cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.