Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
60
Matched
207
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-07-03 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 21.1%Fangorn 12.7%market +8.4pp
P 20.2
F 21.1
V 14.6
6.5pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 8.9%market +7.4pp
P 15.9
F 16.3
V 12.3
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
03
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2
 21.1%Fangorn 14.2%market +6.9pp
P 20.3
F 21.1
V 16.0
5.1pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
04
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +5.1pp
P 9.6
F 14.9
V 15.4
5.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
05
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 16.6%Fangorn 11.7%market +4.9pp
P 19.6
F 16.6
V 12.0
7.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
06
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +3.6pp
P 17.8
F 16.6
V 13.0
4.8pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
07
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 16.6%Fangorn 13.1%market +3.5pp
P 17.5
F 16.6
V 13.9
3.6pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
08
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 13.1%market +3.5pp
P 21.2
F 16.6
V 14.5
6.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
09
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +3.2pp
P 13.6
F 14.9
V 15.4
1.8pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
 15.6%Fangorn 12.4%market +3.2pp
P 15.6
F 15.6
V 17.0
1.4pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
11
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 11.9%market +3.0pp
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 16.6
2.1pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
12
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 16.6%Fangorn 13.9%market +2.7pp
P 20.2
F 16.6
V 17.7
3.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
13
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 15.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.6pp
P 13.9
F 15.6
V 16.1
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 13.6%Fangorn 11.1%market +2.5pp
P 18.1
F 13.6
V 15.7
4.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
15
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 15.5%Fangorn 13.1%market +2.4pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
16
Spencer Steer CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 16.3%Fangorn 14.4%market +1.9pp
P 18.7
F 16.3
V 16.6
2.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
17
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 13.6%market +1.9pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 15.2
0.6pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
18
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 16.6%Fangorn 15.0%market +1.6pp
P 20.9
F 16.6
V 16.5
4.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
19
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 15.0%market +1.3pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
20
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 15.6%Fangorn 14.8%market +0.8pp
P 16.9
F 15.6
V 14.0
2.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
21
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
 14.5%Fangorn 13.8%market +0.7pp
P 12.6
F 14.5
V 14.1
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
22
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 16.2%market +0.5pp
P 18.0
F 16.6
V 15.3
2.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
23
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -0.7pp
P 18.8
F 16.3
V 14.3
4.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
24
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 15.5%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.9pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 17.1
3.3pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
25
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 19.4%market -3.1pp
P 20.8
F 16.3
V 15.6
5.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
26
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 15.5%Fangorn 7.7%market +7.8pp
P 10.1
F 15.5
V 14.5
5.4pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 15.6%Fangorn 9.1%market +6.5pp
P 11.7
F 15.6
V 12.4
3.9pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
28
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +6.0pp
P 7.0
F 13.7
V 13.5
6.7pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7
 13.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.6pp
P 7.8
F 13.3
V 11.0
5.5pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 5.0
F 12.8
V 13.6
8.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 11.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 4.3
F 11.0
V 12.6
8.3pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 13.8%market +1.1pp
P 14.0
F 14.9
V 14.1
1.0pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 15.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.1
F 14.9
V 14.0
1.8pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
34
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 15.8
1.9pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
35
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 16.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -0.7pp
P 17.7
F 16.3
V 14.6
3.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
36
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -0.7pp
P 13.8
F 16.3
V 16.4
2.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
37
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 17.4%market -0.8pp
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 18.6
3.3pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
38
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 14.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -1.2pp
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 14.3
1.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
39
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -1.4pp
P 20.6
F 16.6
V 16.8
3.9pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
40
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 16.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -1.4pp
P 14.3
F 16.3
V 16.1
2.0pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
41
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 13.4
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.5pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
42
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 16.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -2.1pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.3
4.2pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
43
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 15.6%Fangorn 18.2%market -2.6pp
P 17.3
F 15.6
V 16.2
1.7pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
44
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 16.4
1.5pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
45
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 17.1
F 14.9
V 14.9
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
46
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending Triple
TOR vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 14.6%Fangorn 17.5%market -2.9pp
P 12.3
F 14.6
V 16.9
4.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
47
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 21.1%Fangorn 24.1%market -3.0pp
P 19.9
F 21.1
V 15.4
5.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
48
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 4.8%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.2pp
P 2.5
F 4.8
V 10.2
7.7pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
49
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 14.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -3.7pp
P 13.2
F 14.6
V 14.9
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
50
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 14.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -4.1pp
P 16.6
F 14.9
V 15.2
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
51
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 16.3%Fangorn 20.8%market -4.5pp
P 16.6
F 16.3
V 16.7
0.4pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
52
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 14.5%Fangorn 19.2%market -4.7pp
P 12.0
F 14.5
V 13.3
2.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
53
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 16.6%Fangorn 21.5%market -4.9pp
P 18.6
F 16.6
V 15.6
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
54
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 16.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -5.3pp
P 17.2
F 16.6
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.089xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
55
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 14.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.9pp
P 17.7
F 14.9
V 15.4
2.8pp 0.990xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
56
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 3
 15.6%Fangorn 22.5%market -6.9pp
P 17.8
F 15.6
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
57
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 15.5%Fangorn 23.0%market -7.5pp
P 18.9
F 15.5
V 17.2
3.4pp 1.116xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
58
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 14.5%Fangorn 23.3%market -8.7pp
P 13.5
F 14.5
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.094xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
59
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 13.6%Fangorn 26.3%market -12.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 15.3
1.8pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
60
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 16.3%Fangorn 29.8%market -13.6pp
P 16.2
F 16.3
V 17.8
1.6pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1673roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple1cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.