Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 6 |
16.3%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +8.6pp |
P
12.2
F
16.3
V
11.3
|
5.0pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
IN
|
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2 |
21.1%Fangorn | 13.6%market | +7.5pp |
P
23.4
F
21.1
V
13.4
|
10.1pp | 1.049xHR pf | Neutralweather | Elite Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Brice Turang
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1 |
16.3%Fangorn | 10.0%market | +6.3pp |
P
15.6
F
16.3
V
12.0
|
4.3pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 04 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 3 |
15.5%Fangorn | 9.3%market | +6.2pp |
P
14.0
F
15.5
V
10.9
|
4.6pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5 |
14.9%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +5.1pp |
P
11.9
F
14.9
V
11.9
|
3.0pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2 |
14.9%Fangorn | 10.1%market | +4.8pp |
P
13.0
F
14.9
V
12.2
|
2.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2 |
21.1%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +4.7pp |
P
21.1
F
21.1
V
13.7
|
7.5pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2 |
21.1%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +4.7pp |
P
20.3
F
21.1
V
13.7
|
7.4pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1 |
16.3%Fangorn | 11.8%market | +4.5pp |
P
18.8
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
6.3pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2 |
17.5%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +4.4pp |
P
21.9
F
17.5
V
13.3
|
8.6pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4 |
16.3%Fangorn | 12.4%market | +3.9pp |
P
16.7
F
16.3
V
12.7
|
4.0pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 7 |
15.6%Fangorn | 11.9%market | +3.7pp |
P
14.6
F
15.6
V
11.4
|
4.2pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 705 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3 |
16.6%Fangorn | 13.0%market | +3.6pp |
P
16.1
F
16.6
V
12.5
|
4.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 11.1%market | +3.4pp |
P
19.8
F
14.5
V
12.1
|
7.7pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 6 |
16.3%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +3.2pp |
P
16.0
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
3.9pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 16 | IN | MIL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3 |
15.6%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +3.1pp |
P
15.2
F
15.6
V
13.1
|
2.5pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5 |
14.9%Fangorn | 11.9%market | +3.0pp |
P
14.7
F
14.9
V
12.9
|
2.1pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 710 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1 |
16.6%Fangorn | 13.9%market | +2.7pp |
P
20.5
F
16.6
V
13.1
|
7.4pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4 |
16.3%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +1.5pp |
P
18.4
F
16.3
V
13.8
|
4.6pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4 |
16.3%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +1.5pp |
P
16.4
F
16.3
V
13.0
|
3.4pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5 |
14.9%Fangorn | 13.5%market | +1.5pp |
P
15.6
F
14.9
V
12.8
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5 |
15.6%Fangorn | 14.6%market | +1.0pp |
P
15.1
F
15.6
V
13.8
|
1.8pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 560 avg 3 books |
| 23 | IN | BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3 |
15.5%Fangorn | 15.9%market | -0.4pp |
P
17.7
F
15.5
V
13.7
|
4.0pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 530 avg 3 books |
| 24 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 5 |
13.7%Fangorn | 14.2%market | -0.5pp |
P
11.7
F
13.7
V
11.6
|
2.1pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 605 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1 |
15.5%Fangorn | 18.4%market | -2.9pp |
P
18.0
F
15.5
V
13.8
|
4.3pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6 |
15.5%Fangorn | 9.1%market | +6.4pp |
P
12.2
F
15.5
V
10.7
|
4.8pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 960 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1 |
13.3%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +5.6pp |
P
7.8
F
13.3
V
12.8
|
5.5pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Luis Arraez
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1 |
12.8%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +5.1pp |
P
6.5
F
12.8
V
13.1
|
6.6pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1 |
12.8%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +5.1pp |
P
7.7
F
12.8
V
11.7
|
5.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1 |
12.8%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +5.1pp |
P
6.2
F
12.8
V
11.7
|
6.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 7 |
11.8%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +4.1pp |
P
7.0
F
11.8
V
10.5
|
4.7pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5 |
16.3%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +3.2pp |
P
15.9
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
3.9pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4 |
16.6%Fangorn | 15.5%market | +1.1pp |
P
18.6
F
16.6
V
13.6
|
5.0pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 520 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4 |
14.9%Fangorn | 14.0%market | +0.9pp |
P
14.6
F
14.9
V
12.8
|
2.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 585 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5 |
16.3%Fangorn | 15.8%market | +0.5pp |
P
13.6
F
16.3
V
13.6
|
2.7pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 510 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1 |
11.0%Fangorn | 10.5%market | +0.5pp |
P
12.1
F
11.0
V
12.8
|
1.8pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Riley Greene
DET
IN
|
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4 |
16.6%Fangorn | 17.4%market | -0.8pp |
P
18.1
F
16.6
V
13.7
|
4.4pp | 1.049xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 475 avg 3 books |
| 38 | IN | DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5 |
16.6%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
19.8
F
16.6
V
13.8
|
6.0pp | 1.049xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Zach Neto
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1 |
16.6%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
19.1
F
16.6
V
13.9
|
5.1pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5 |
14.6%Fangorn | 15.8%market | -1.1pp |
P
11.6
F
14.6
V
13.2
|
3.1pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 3 |
17.5%Fangorn | 18.7%market | -1.2pp |
P
19.8
F
17.5
V
14.0
|
5.8pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 435 avg 3 books |
| 42 | IN | TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2 |
15.6%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -1.3pp |
P
13.9
F
15.6
V
13.0
|
2.6pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4 |
16.6%Fangorn | 18.0%market | -1.4pp |
P
19.5
F
16.6
V
13.6
|
5.9pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3 |
16.3%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -1.4pp |
P
14.5
F
16.3
V
13.2
|
3.1pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 45 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 1 |
16.3%Fangorn | 18.4%market | -2.1pp |
P
18.0
F
16.3
V
11.9
|
6.1pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
George Springer
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1 |
14.9%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -2.8pp |
P
15.2
F
14.9
V
13.0
|
2.2pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Willy Adames
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4 |
14.9%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -2.8pp |
P
15.6
F
14.9
V
13.1
|
2.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4 |
14.6%Fangorn | 17.5%market | -2.9pp |
P
12.7
F
14.6
V
13.3
|
1.9pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 470 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Mike Trout
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2 |
16.6%Fangorn | 19.8%market | -3.2pp |
P
18.4
F
16.6
V
13.8
|
4.6pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 405 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3 |
14.6%Fangorn | 18.2%market | -3.6pp |
P
13.4
F
14.6
V
14.2
|
1.2pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 450 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4 |
16.3%Fangorn | 20.4%market | -4.1pp |
P
18.1
F
16.3
V
12.8
|
5.2pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Jo Adell
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4 |
16.6%Fangorn | 20.8%market | -4.2pp |
P
16.6
F
16.6
V
13.8
|
2.9pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
Lineup pending
|
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 2 |
16.3%Fangorn | 21.1%market | -4.8pp |
P
16.1
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
3.9pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 54 | IN | SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2 |
14.9%Fangorn | 20.8%market | -5.9pp |
P
16.1
F
14.9
V
13.2
|
2.9pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2 |
14.6%Fangorn | 21.1%market | -6.4pp |
P
14.8
F
14.6
V
13.2
|
1.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2 |
15.5%Fangorn | 23.0%market | -7.5pp |
P
18.1
F
15.5
V
13.9
|
4.2pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 335 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus1675roster/transaction rows
Lineups234confirmed starters
Triple3cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.