Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 6 |
11.3%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.3pp |
P
12.2
F
16.3
V
11.3
|
5.0pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2 |
12.2%Valinor | 10.1%market | +1.8pp |
P
13.0
F
14.9
V
12.2
|
2.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5 |
11.9%Valinor | 9.8%market | +1.7pp |
P
11.9
F
14.9
V
11.9
|
3.0pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Brice Turang
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1 |
12.0%Valinor | 10.0%market | +1.7pp |
P
15.6
F
16.3
V
12.0
|
4.3pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 05 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 3 |
10.9%Valinor | 9.3%market | +1.2pp |
P
14.0
F
15.5
V
10.9
|
4.6pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3 |
12.1%Valinor | 11.1%market | +0.6pp |
P
19.8
F
14.5
V
12.1
|
7.7pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 11.9%market | +0.5pp |
P
14.7
F
14.9
V
12.9
|
2.1pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 710 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1 |
12.4%Valinor | 11.8%market | +0.2pp |
P
18.8
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
6.3pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 09 | IN | MIL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3 |
13.1%Valinor | 12.5%market | +0.1pp |
P
15.2
F
15.6
V
13.1
|
2.5pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4 |
12.7%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.3pp |
P
16.7
F
16.3
V
12.7
|
4.0pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2 |
13.3%Valinor | 13.2%market | -0.4pp |
P
21.9
F
17.5
V
13.3
|
8.6pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 630 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
IN
|
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2 |
13.4%Valinor | 13.8%market | -0.9pp |
P
23.4
F
21.1
V
13.4
|
10.1pp | 1.049xHR pf | Neutralweather | Elite Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3 |
12.5%Valinor | 13.6%market | -1.1pp |
P
16.1
F
16.6
V
12.5
|
4.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 635 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 7 |
11.4%Valinor | 12.5%market | -1.1pp |
P
14.6
F
15.6
V
11.4
|
4.2pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 6 |
12.4%Valinor | 13.1%market | -1.2pp |
P
16.0
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
3.9pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5 |
12.8%Valinor | 13.6%market | -1.2pp |
P
15.6
F
14.9
V
12.8
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5 |
13.8%Valinor | 14.8%market | -1.5pp |
P
15.1
F
15.6
V
13.8
|
1.8pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1 |
13.1%Valinor | 14.1%market | -1.5pp |
P
20.5
F
16.6
V
13.1
|
7.4pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.0%market | -1.7pp |
P
18.4
F
16.3
V
13.8
|
4.6pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 20 | IN | BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3 |
13.7%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.1pp |
P
17.7
F
15.5
V
13.7
|
4.0pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 21 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 5 |
11.6%Valinor | 13.7%market | -2.5pp |
P
11.7
F
13.7
V
11.6
|
2.1pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 605 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 4 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.0%market | -2.5pp |
P
16.4
F
16.3
V
13.0
|
3.4pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2 |
13.7%Valinor | 16.7%market | -3.6pp |
P
21.1
F
21.1
V
13.7
|
7.5pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti · slot 2 |
13.7%Valinor | 16.8%market | -3.7pp |
P
20.3
F
21.1
V
13.7
|
7.4pp | 1.036xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1 |
13.8%Valinor | 17.7%market | -4.6pp |
P
18.0
F
15.5
V
13.8
|
4.3pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Luis Arraez
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1 |
13.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | +5.1pp |
P
6.5
F
12.8
V
13.1
|
6.6pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1 |
12.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.8pp |
P
7.8
F
13.3
V
12.8
|
5.5pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1 |
11.7%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.7pp |
P
7.7
F
12.8
V
11.7
|
5.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1 |
11.7%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.7pp |
P
6.2
F
12.8
V
11.7
|
6.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 7 |
10.5%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.5pp |
P
7.0
F
11.8
V
10.5
|
4.7pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 1 |
12.8%Valinor | 10.5%market | +1.9pp |
P
12.1
F
11.0
V
12.8
|
1.8pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6 |
10.7%Valinor | 9.1%market | +1.2pp |
P
12.2
F
15.5
V
10.7
|
4.8pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 960 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5 |
12.4%Valinor | 13.2%market | -1.3pp |
P
15.9
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
3.9pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 630 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4 |
12.8%Valinor | 14.2%market | -1.9pp |
P
14.6
F
14.9
V
12.8
|
2.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5 |
13.2%Valinor | 15.2%market | -2.6pp |
P
11.6
F
14.6
V
13.2
|
3.1pp | 0.985xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 15.7%market | -2.7pp |
P
18.6
F
16.6
V
13.6
|
5.0pp | 1.071xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5 |
13.6%Valinor | 16.1%market | -3.1pp |
P
13.6
F
16.3
V
13.6
|
2.7pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 500 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Riley Greene
DET
IN
|
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4 |
13.7%Valinor | 16.8%market | -3.7pp |
P
18.1
F
16.6
V
13.7
|
4.4pp | 1.049xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 39 | IN | DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5 |
13.8%Valinor | 17.1%market | -3.9pp |
P
19.8
F
16.6
V
13.8
|
6.0pp | 1.049xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 40 | IN | TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2 |
13.0%Valinor | 16.4%market | -3.9pp |
P
13.9
F
15.6
V
13.0
|
2.6pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Zach Neto
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1 |
13.9%Valinor | 17.2%market | -3.9pp |
P
19.1
F
16.6
V
13.9
|
5.1pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 460 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3 |
14.2%Valinor | 17.7%market | -4.2pp |
P
13.4
F
14.6
V
14.2
|
1.2pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4 |
13.3%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.4pp |
P
12.7
F
14.6
V
13.3
|
1.9pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 17.4%market | -4.4pp |
P
19.5
F
16.6
V
13.6
|
5.9pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3 |
13.2%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.5pp |
P
14.5
F
16.3
V
13.2
|
3.1pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Willy Adames
SF
IN
|
SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4 |
13.1%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.7pp |
P
15.6
F
14.9
V
13.1
|
2.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
George Springer
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1 |
13.0%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.7pp |
P
15.2
F
14.9
V
13.0
|
2.2pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs BALDean Kremer · slot 3 |
14.0%Valinor | 18.2%market | -4.8pp |
P
19.8
F
17.5
V
14.0
|
5.8pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Mike Trout
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2 |
13.8%Valinor | 19.3%market | -6.2pp |
P
18.4
F
16.6
V
13.8
|
4.6pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 400 avg 3 books |
| 50 | Lineup pending | AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 1 |
11.9%Valinor | 17.9%market | -6.6pp |
P
18.0
F
16.3
V
11.9
|
6.1pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Jo Adell
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 20.3%market | -7.3pp |
P
16.6
F
16.6
V
13.8
|
2.9pp | 1.014xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4 |
12.8%Valinor | 19.9%market | -7.8pp |
P
18.1
F
16.3
V
12.8
|
5.2pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 53 | IN | SF vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2 |
13.2%Valinor | 20.3%market | -7.9pp |
P
16.1
F
14.9
V
13.2
|
2.9pp | 0.949xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2 |
13.2%Valinor | 20.5%market | -8.1pp |
P
14.8
F
14.6
V
13.2
|
1.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
Lineup pending
|
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 2 |
12.4%Valinor | 20.5%market | -8.9pp |
P
16.1
F
16.3
V
12.4
|
3.9pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2 |
13.9%Valinor | 22.4%market | -9.4pp |
P
18.1
F
15.5
V
13.9
|
4.2pp | 1.035xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 330 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus1675roster/transaction rows
Lineups234confirmed starters
Triple3cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.