Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Lane Thomas
KC
IN
|
KC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5 |
17.6%Valinor | 12.5%market | +4.6pp |
P
9.9
F
12.2
V
17.6
|
7.7pp | 1.122xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5 |
16.9%Valinor | 13.5%market | +2.9pp |
P
13.8
F
13.2
V
16.9
|
3.7pp | 1.095xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5 |
15.9%Valinor | 13.5%market | +1.9pp |
P
12.9
F
12.6
V
15.9
|
3.3pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 5 |
15.7%Valinor | 14.1%market | +1.0pp |
P
12.1
F
14.0
V
15.7
|
3.6pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Evan Carter
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 6 |
12.3%Valinor | 11.0%market | +1.0pp |
P
16.8
F
14.3
V
12.3
|
4.5pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1 |
15.9%Valinor | 14.4%market | +1.0pp |
P
17.5
F
14.3
V
15.9
|
3.2pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 570 avg 3 books |
| 07 | IN | SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 3 |
16.7%Valinor | 15.5%market | +0.6pp |
P
13.1
F
11.2
V
16.7
|
5.5pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 520 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3 |
16.7%Valinor | 15.6%market | +0.4pp |
P
17.6
F
16.3
V
16.7
|
1.3pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3 |
15.5%Valinor | 15.3%market | -0.4pp |
P
16.3
F
14.3
V
15.5
|
2.1pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 1 |
14.2%Valinor | 14.3%market | -0.7pp |
P
14.1
F
13.2
V
14.2
|
0.9pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 575 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 5 |
10.5%Valinor | 10.7%market | -0.7pp |
P
10.6
F
12.6
V
10.5
|
2.1pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 795 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Jeremy Peña
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1 |
10.9%Valinor | 11.2%market | -0.7pp |
P
14.8
F
14.3
V
10.9
|
3.9pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 760 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 6 |
8.7%Valinor | 9.2%market | -0.8pp |
P
8.9
F
0.0
V
8.7
|
8.9pp | 1.075xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 945 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Alec Burleson
STL
IN
|
STL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3 |
12.5%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.3pp |
P
12.8
F
14.0
V
12.5
|
1.5pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
IN
|
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5 |
12.3%Valinor | 13.2%market | -1.4pp |
P
14.6
F
14.3
V
12.3
|
2.3pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 630 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 6 |
10.0%Valinor | 11.0%market | -1.5pp |
P
11.4
F
14.0
V
10.0
|
4.0pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 770 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
8.5%Valinor | 9.8%market | -1.7pp |
P
10.6
F
13.2
V
8.5
|
4.7pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 885 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5 |
14.3%Valinor | 15.5%market | -1.7pp |
P
12.8
F
14.0
V
14.3
|
1.5pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 525 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1 |
12.1%Valinor | 13.4%market | -1.8pp |
P
15.5
F
14.3
V
12.1
|
3.4pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 620 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 2 |
13.1%Valinor | 14.4%market | -1.8pp |
P
15.2
F
17.2
V
13.1
|
4.0pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 21 | IN | SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 7 |
8.1%Valinor | 9.7%market | -2.0pp |
P
9.4
F
11.2
V
8.1
|
3.1pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 890 avg 3 books |
| 22 | Lineup pending | TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 3 |
11.2%Valinor | 13.3%market | -2.1pp |
P
15.1
F
17.2
V
11.2
|
5.9pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Josh Bell
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4 |
13.4%Valinor | 15.0%market | -2.1pp |
P
13.4
F
13.3
V
13.4
|
0.1pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 24 | Lineup pending | TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 5 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.6%market | -2.2pp |
P
12.6
F
12.6
V
12.0
|
0.6pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 6 |
11.9%Valinor | 13.6%market | -2.2pp |
P
13.4
F
14.0
V
11.9
|
2.1pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
8.7%Valinor | 10.6%market | -2.3pp |
P
14.2
F
11.0
V
8.7
|
5.5pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7 |
9.6%Valinor | 12.5%market | -2.9pp |
P
12.1
F
13.3
V
9.6
|
3.7pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1 |
9.3%Valinor | 11.8%market | -3.0pp |
P
12.1
F
12.6
V
9.3
|
3.4pp | 0.982xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 29 | IN | CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4 |
10.3%Valinor | 13.0%market | -3.2pp |
P
14.2
F
14.3
V
10.3
|
4.0pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Christian Walker
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4 |
15.0%Valinor | 17.7%market | -3.4pp |
P
14.9
F
14.0
V
15.0
|
1.0pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 3 |
15.0%Valinor | 26.5%market | -12.4pp |
P
14.4
F
14.0
V
15.0
|
1.1pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Luis Arraez
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1 |
15.3%Valinor | 7.7%market | +7.3pp |
P
7.2
F
11.2
V
15.3
|
8.1pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1 |
12.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.4pp |
P
7.9
F
11.0
V
12.4
|
4.5pp | 1.095xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1 |
11.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.0pp |
P
4.2
F
4.9
V
11.0
|
6.8pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1 |
10.7%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.7pp |
P
4.5
F
6.7
V
10.7
|
6.2pp | 0.866xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1 |
13.0%Valinor | 10.5%market | +2.1pp |
P
8.9
F
4.9
V
13.0
|
8.1pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
José Caballero
NYY
IN
|
NYY vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1 |
10.2%Valinor | 7.9%market | +2.1pp |
P
5.8
F
6.7
V
10.2
|
4.4pp | 0.866xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books |
| 38 | IN | KC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4 |
19.0%Valinor | 17.2%market | +1.2pp |
P
14.7
F
14.0
V
19.0
|
5.1pp | 1.122xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6 |
8.2%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.2pp |
P
7.6
F
12.2
V
8.2
|
4.6pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
IN
|
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 7 |
8.2%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.2pp |
P
7.9
F
10.6
V
8.2
|
2.7pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2 |
12.4%Valinor | 12.5%market | -0.6pp |
P
14.5
F
14.0
V
12.4
|
2.1pp | 0.965xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 42 | IN | SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 1 |
16.5%Valinor | 16.7%market | -0.7pp |
P
13.7
F
14.0
V
16.5
|
2.8pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4 |
15.8%Valinor | 16.4%market | -1.2pp |
P
11.3
F
12.6
V
15.8
|
4.5pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3 |
14.8%Valinor | 15.6%market | -1.4pp |
P
11.5
F
14.0
V
14.8
|
3.3pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1 |
15.8%Valinor | 16.8%market | -1.6pp |
P
11.9
F
12.2
V
15.8
|
3.9pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 2 |
17.3%Valinor | 18.4%market | -1.7pp |
P
13.0
F
13.2
V
17.3
|
4.3pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5 |
13.9%Valinor | 15.2%market | -1.8pp |
P
9.7
F
12.3
V
13.9
|
4.3pp | 1.002xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 48 | IN | TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 1 |
6.2%Valinor | 7.7%market | -1.8pp |
P
3.2
F
0.0
V
6.2
|
6.2pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4 |
16.7%Valinor | 18.2%market | -2.2pp |
P
14.9
F
14.0
V
16.7
|
2.7pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 16.2%market | -2.5pp |
P
15.4
F
14.3
V
14.4
|
1.1pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 495 avg 3 books |
| 51 | IN | NYY vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5 |
15.5%Valinor | 17.4%market | -2.5pp |
P
10.8
F
12.6
V
15.5
|
4.8pp | 0.866xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1 |
16.9%Valinor | 18.8%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.1
F
14.0
V
16.9
|
2.9pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.9pp |
P
10.4
F
12.6
V
13.0
|
2.5pp | 0.866xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3 |
15.8%Valinor | 18.6%market | -3.5pp |
P
12.0
F
14.0
V
15.8
|
3.7pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Willy Adames
SF
IN
|
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4 |
13.9%Valinor | 17.1%market | -3.8pp |
P
14.4
F
13.2
V
13.9
|
1.2pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4 |
11.5%Valinor | 15.0%market | -4.0pp |
P
11.6
F
12.6
V
11.5
|
1.1pp | 0.866xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6 |
10.2%Valinor | 13.8%market | -4.1pp |
P
11.2
F
12.6
V
10.2
|
2.4pp | 0.866xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Jake Burger
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4 |
15.3%Valinor | 18.8%market | -4.1pp |
P
11.2
F
12.6
V
15.3
|
4.1pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4 |
11.7%Valinor | 15.7%market | -4.5pp |
P
13.3
F
13.3
V
11.7
|
1.6pp | 0.982xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 2 |
15.2%Valinor | 19.1%market | -4.6pp |
P
15.7
F
14.3
V
15.2
|
1.4pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2 |
15.8%Valinor | 20.3%market | -5.3pp |
P
14.5
F
14.3
V
15.8
|
1.5pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2 |
16.5%Valinor | 21.2%market | -5.5pp |
P
15.1
F
14.0
V
16.5
|
2.5pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 63 |
Corey Seager
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 2 |
17.0%Valinor | 22.0%market | -5.8pp |
P
15.3
F
14.3
V
17.0
|
2.7pp | 1.145xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 340 avg 3 books |
| 64 | IN | SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2 |
14.8%Valinor | 20.3%market | -6.2pp |
P
14.9
F
13.2
V
14.8
|
1.7pp | 0.981xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 65 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2 |
15.1%Valinor | 21.5%market | -7.2pp |
P
14.2
F
12.6
V
15.1
|
2.4pp | 1.095xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 66 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2 |
16.5%Valinor | 23.3%market | -7.6pp |
P
14.0
F
12.6
V
16.5
|
3.9pp | 1.048xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 315 avg 3 books |
| 67 | IN | TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 4 |
12.1%Valinor | 21.5%market | -10.2pp |
P
13.4
F
14.3
V
12.1
|
2.2pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 68 | IN | CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3 |
12.2%Valinor | 22.7%market | -11.4pp |
P
11.6
F
12.2
V
12.2
|
0.6pp | 1.096xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 325 avg 3 books |
Data context
779 sample flagsStatus2471roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.