Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-02 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
66
Matched
288
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.7
V 9.4
4.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 7
 12.4%Fangorn 8.5%market +3.9pp
P 10.0
F 12.4
V 6.2
6.3pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
03
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.7pp
P 9.1
F 12.4
V 11.3
3.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.3pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
05
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 10.8
3.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
 13.7%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.7pp
P 11.2
F 13.7
V 9.9
3.8pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.3pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 8.9
4.3pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
08
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.0pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 7
 11.5%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.9pp
P 8.4
F 11.5
V 7.4
4.2pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
10
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 12.5%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.8pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 11.0
2.6pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
11
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 15.8%Fangorn 14.0%market +1.7pp
P 18.1
F 15.8
V 11.9
6.2pp 1.176xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
12
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.2
V 10.0
4.6pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
13
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.4pp
P 17.0
F 13.9
V 14.7
3.1pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 15.8%Fangorn 14.9%market +0.9pp
P 16.5
F 15.8
V 11.9
4.6pp 1.176xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
15
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
16
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.4pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 11.1
3.3pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
17
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.4pp
P 10.9
F 12.7
V 16.3
5.4pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
18
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 13.1%market -0.3pp
P 14.2
F 12.7
V 10.8
3.4pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
19
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 13.8
0.7pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -1.4pp
P 11.0
F 12.4
V 13.3
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
21
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.7pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
22
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.9pp
P 16.2
F 13.9
V 17.0
3.1pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
23
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.9pp
P 15.8
F 13.9
V 15.7
1.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
24
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.1pp
P 12.5
F 13.9
V 13.7
1.4pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
25
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 11.2%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.2pp
P 11.9
F 11.2
V 14.2
3.0pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
26
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 14.5
2.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
27
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 14.4
0.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
28
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.2pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
29
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.8pp
P 17.2
F 13.9
V 18.3
4.4pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
30
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 12.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.6pp
P 14.3
F 12.7
V 15.6
2.9pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
31
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 7
 12.7%Fangorn 11.9%market +0.8pp
P 10.0
F 12.7
V 9.0
3.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
32
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 14.5%market -1.8pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 12.7
0.4pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
33
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.9
V 12.0
1.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
34
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 12.5
1.9pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
35
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.8pp
P 11.1
F 12.7
V 12.0
1.6pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
36
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
 12.7%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.1pp
P 13.9
F 12.7
V 13.2
1.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
37
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 15.3
F 13.9
V 11.1
4.2pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
38
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.9
V 15.1
1.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
39
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 13.1
0.6pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
40
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.1pp
P 8.2
F 11.7
V 13.5
5.2pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
41
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.1pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 15.2
1.3pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
42
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.1pp
P 15.6
F 13.9
V 11.7
3.9pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
43
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.2pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 13.8
1.6pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
44
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
45
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.8
F 13.9
V 12.5
3.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
46
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.5pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 14.1
2.3pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
47
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.7pp
P 15.5
F 13.7
V 14.4
1.8pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
48
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 11.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.7pp
P 12.5
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
49
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -4.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 15.1
1.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
50
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 12.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.3pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 13.8
1.0pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 10.8
4.0pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
52
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
 13.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 15.9
2.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
53
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 19.4%market -5.7pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 15.5
1.8pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
54
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 19.4%market -5.7pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 15.5
1.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
55
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.9pp
P 13.2
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.2pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
56
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.9pp
P 15.4
F 13.7
V 14.3
1.8pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
57
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 12.7%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 14.1
1.7pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
58
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -6.5pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 15.7
1.8pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
59
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 15.9
2.3pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
60
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.4pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 13.3
1.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
61
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -7.9pp
P 16.2
F 13.9
V 15.2
2.3pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
62
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 12.7%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.0pp
P 13.2
F 12.7
V 18.2
5.5pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
63
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 12.7%Fangorn 23.0%market -10.3pp
P 14.3
F 12.7
V 15.9
3.2pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
64
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 11.0%market -10.9pp
P 7.1
F 0.0
V 10.8
10.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
65
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.7
V 14.2
0.5pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
66
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 26.3%market -14.6pp
P 13.1
F 11.7
V 14.8
3.1pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2474roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.