Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-02 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
66
Matched
288
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-02 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 16.3%Valinor 12.3%market +3.5pp
P 10.9
F 12.7
V 16.3
5.4pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
02
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 11.3%Valinor 8.7%market +2.3pp
P 9.1
F 12.4
V 11.3
3.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
 14.7%Valinor 12.5%market +1.7pp
P 17.0
F 13.9
V 14.7
3.1pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
04
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 17.0%Valinor 15.0%market +1.4pp
P 16.2
F 13.9
V 17.0
3.1pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
05
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 13.3%market +0.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
06
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 12.8%market +0.9pp
P 11.9
F 11.2
V 14.2
3.0pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 11.0%Valinor 10.7%market -0.2pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 11.0
2.6pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
08
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 15.3%market -0.2pp
P 15.8
F 13.9
V 15.7
1.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
09
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 13.8%Valinor 14.1%market -0.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 13.8
0.7pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
10
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 9.4%Valinor 9.5%market -0.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.7
V 9.4
4.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
11
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 13.3%Valinor 13.3%market -0.5pp
P 11.0
F 12.4
V 13.3
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
12
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 18.3%Valinor 18.2%market -0.6pp
P 17.2
F 13.9
V 18.3
4.4pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
13
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 9.6%Valinor 9.9%market -0.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
14
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 10.8%Valinor 11.2%market -0.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 10.8
3.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
15
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 10.9%Valinor 11.7%market -1.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
16
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 13.3%Valinor 14.3%market -1.5pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.7pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
17
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 15.5%market -1.5pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 14.5
2.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
18
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
 9.9%Valinor 11.0%market -1.6pp
P 11.2
F 13.7
V 9.9
3.8pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
19
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 10.8%Valinor 13.1%market -2.3pp
P 14.2
F 12.7
V 10.8
3.4pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
20
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
 10.0%Valinor 11.8%market -2.3pp
P 14.6
F 13.2
V 10.0
4.6pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
21
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 14.6%Valinor 16.4%market -2.4pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
22
Edouard Julien COL
IN
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 8.9%Valinor 10.9%market -2.4pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 8.9
4.3pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
23
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
 13.7%Valinor 15.6%market -2.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.9
V 13.7
1.4pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
24
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 15.6%Valinor 17.7%market -2.7pp
P 14.3
F 12.7
V 15.6
2.9pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
25
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 11.9%Valinor 14.2%market -2.8pp
P 18.1
F 15.8
V 11.9
6.2pp 1.176xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
26
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 7
 6.2%Valinor 8.7%market -2.9pp
P 10.0
F 12.4
V 6.2
6.3pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1005 avg 3 books
27
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 11.1%Valinor 13.6%market -2.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 11.1
3.3pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
28
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 11.9%Valinor 15.1%market -3.7pp
P 16.5
F 15.8
V 11.9
4.6pp 1.176xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
29
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 25.8%market -11.9pp
P 13.1
F 11.7
V 14.8
3.1pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
30
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 26.5%market -13.2pp
P 14.1
F 13.7
V 14.2
0.5pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
31
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 10.8%Valinor 10.6%market -0.2pp
P 7.1
F 0.0
V 10.8
10.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
32
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 12.7%Valinor 14.0%market -1.8pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 12.7
0.4pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
33
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 15.1%Valinor 16.5%market -2.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.9
V 15.1
1.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
34
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 13.5%Valinor 15.2%market -2.3pp
P 8.2
F 11.7
V 13.5
5.2pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
35
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
 13.2%Valinor 15.3%market -2.6pp
P 13.9
F 12.7
V 13.2
1.1pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
36
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 7
 7.4%Valinor 9.7%market -2.7pp
P 8.4
F 11.5
V 7.4
4.2pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
37
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 15.2%Valinor 17.4%market -2.8pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 15.2
1.3pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
38
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 13.3%Valinor 15.7%market -3.0pp
P 12.5
F 11.6
V 13.3
1.7pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
39
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 16.4%market -3.1pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 13.8
1.6pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
40
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 15.1%Valinor 17.7%market -3.2pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 15.1
1.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
41
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 17.1%market -3.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 14.4
0.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
42
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
 15.9%Valinor 18.6%market -3.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 15.9
2.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
43
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 7
 9.0%Valinor 12.5%market -3.5pp
P 10.0
F 12.7
V 9.0
3.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
44
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 12.0%Valinor 15.0%market -3.5pp
P 11.1
F 12.7
V 12.0
1.6pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
45
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 14.1%Valinor 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.0pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
46
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 14.1%Valinor 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 14.1
2.3pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
47
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 18.2%Valinor 21.2%market -3.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.7
V 18.2
5.5pp 1.086xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
48
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 4
 12.5%Valinor 15.7%market -3.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 12.5
1.9pp 0.983xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
49
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 18.8%market -3.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 15.5
1.8pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
50
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 15.5%Valinor 18.9%market -4.1pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 15.5
1.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
51
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 14.4%Valinor 17.9%market -4.1pp
P 15.5
F 13.7
V 14.4
1.8pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
52
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 16.7%market -4.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 13.1
0.6pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
53
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCColin Rea · slot 6
 12.0%Valinor 15.7%market -4.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.9
V 12.0
1.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
54
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 13.8%Valinor 17.5%market -4.4pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 13.8
1.0pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
55
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 19.9%market -5.0pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 15.7
1.8pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
56
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 18.4%market -5.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 14.1
1.7pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
57
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2
 15.9%Valinor 20.3%market -5.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 15.9
2.3pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
58
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 15.4
F 13.7
V 14.3
1.8pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
59
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 12.5%Valinor 17.9%market -6.0pp
P 15.8
F 13.9
V 12.5
3.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
60
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
 11.1%Valinor 16.7%market -6.2pp
P 15.3
F 13.9
V 11.1
4.2pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
61
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 11.7%Valinor 17.4%market -6.4pp
P 15.6
F 13.9
V 11.7
3.9pp 1.216xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
62
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 15.2%Valinor 21.2%market -6.8pp
P 16.2
F 13.9
V 15.2
2.3pp 1.214xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
63
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 15.9%Valinor 22.4%market -7.3pp
P 14.3
F 12.7
V 15.9
3.2pp 1.108xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
64
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 20.5%market -8.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 13.3
1.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
65
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 10.8%Valinor 18.8%market -8.6pp
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 10.8
4.0pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
66
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
 10.4%Valinor 19.1%market -9.4pp
P 13.2
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.2pp 1.074xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2474roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.