Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-03 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
47
Matched
171
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-08-03 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
 13.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +6.0pp
P 10.7
F 13.7
V 8.6
5.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +4.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 11.6
2.4pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.4pp
P 12.6
F 13.7
V 8.9
4.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
04
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 7
 11.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 10.5
2.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.4pp
P 11.3
F 13.2
V 9.9
3.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
06
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 9.6
4.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 7
 12.5%Fangorn 9.6%market +2.9pp
P 11.2
F 12.5
V 8.4
4.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
08
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 11.0
3.3pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
09
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 15.8%Fangorn 13.9%market +1.8pp
P 17.3
F 15.8
V 12.9
4.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
10
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
 13.9%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.9
V 15.1
2.1pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
11
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 11.1%market +1.3pp
P 16.7
F 12.4
V 10.3
6.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
12
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 12.4%market +1.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 12.0
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
13
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 12.7%market +1.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.9
V 9.8
4.1pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
14
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 10.6
3.3pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
15
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 14.9%market -1.0pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 11.2
2.7pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
16
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.7
V 13.1
1.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
17
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 14.2%market -1.4pp
P 11.4
F 12.7
V 10.3
2.4pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
18
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 15.8%Fangorn 17.4%market -1.6pp
P 17.0
F 15.8
V 14.5
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
19
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.9pp
P 15.7
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.1pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
20
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 13.8
1.2pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
21
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 14.8
2.5pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
22
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
23
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.4pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 13.7
1.1pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
24
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.8pp
P 15.7
F 13.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
25
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.8pp
P 13.9
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
26
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.0pp
P 15.7
F 13.7
V 16.3
2.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
27
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.4pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 9.6
5.4pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
28
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 7
 12.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -1.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 9.0
3.4pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
29
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.1pp
P 10.0
F 12.7
V 13.0
3.0pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
30
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 12.6
F 13.9
V 11.5
2.4pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
31
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
32
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.4pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 14.3
0.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
33
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 16.5
3.4pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
34
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 11.9
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
35
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -4.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 15.5
2.2pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
36
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 18.9%market -5.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
37
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 13.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 15.3
1.6pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
38
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
 12.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 13.5
0.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
39
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.3pp
P 12.7
F 12.7
V 13.9
1.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
40
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.8pp
P 9.2
F 12.4
V 13.0
3.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
41
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 16.2
F 13.7
V 17.4
3.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
42
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 16.2
2.5pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
43
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 12.7
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
44
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 2.7
F 0.0
V 7.7
7.6pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 22.0%market -8.3pp
P 12.2
F 13.7
V 11.2
2.5pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
46
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 22.5%market -9.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.2pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
47
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 29.0%market -15.3pp
P 12.8
F 13.7
V 17.2
4.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

774 sample flags
Status2527roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.