Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
47
Matched
171
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-08-03 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 7
 10.5%Valinor 7.7%market +2.5pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 10.5
2.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 12.3%market +2.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.9
V 15.1
2.1pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
03
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
 11.6%Valinor 9.1%market +2.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.9
V 11.6
2.4pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
04
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
 8.6%Valinor 7.7%market +0.6pp
P 10.7
F 13.7
V 8.6
5.1pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 16.0%Valinor 15.0%market +0.4pp
P 15.7
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.1pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
06
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 16.8%Valinor 16.4%market -0.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 9.9%Valinor 10.0%market -0.4pp
P 11.3
F 13.2
V 9.9
3.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
08
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 11.0%Valinor 11.2%market -0.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 11.0
3.3pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
09
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 16.8%Valinor 17.1%market -0.9pp
P 15.7
F 13.9
V 16.8
3.0pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 12.0%Valinor 13.0%market -1.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 12.0
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
11
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 8.9%Valinor 9.5%market -1.0pp
P 12.6
F 13.7
V 8.9
4.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
12
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 14.8%Valinor 15.5%market -1.2pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 14.8
2.5pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
13
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 10.3%Valinor 11.1%market -1.2pp
P 16.7
F 12.4
V 10.3
6.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
14
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 16.3%Valinor 17.1%market -1.4pp
P 15.7
F 13.7
V 16.3
2.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
15
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 12.9%Valinor 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 17.3
F 15.8
V 12.9
4.3pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
16
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 7
 8.4%Valinor 9.7%market -1.7pp
P 11.2
F 12.5
V 8.4
4.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
17
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 14.5%Valinor 15.7%market -1.8pp
P 13.9
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
18
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
 9.6%Valinor 11.0%market -1.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 9.6
4.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
19
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 14.5%market -1.9pp
P 14.8
F 13.7
V 13.1
1.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
20
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
 13.8%Valinor 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 13.8
1.2pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
21
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 16.8%market -2.8pp
P 17.0
F 15.8
V 14.5
2.4pp 1.046xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
22
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 3
 10.6%Valinor 13.3%market -3.2pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 10.6
3.3pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
23
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 9.8%Valinor 13.3%market -3.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.9
V 9.8
4.1pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
24
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 2
 11.2%Valinor 14.4%market -3.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 11.2
2.7pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
25
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 10.3%Valinor 13.6%market -3.9pp
P 11.4
F 12.7
V 10.3
2.4pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
26
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 11.2%Valinor 21.5%market -11.0pp
P 12.2
F 13.7
V 11.2
2.5pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
27
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 28.4%market -12.2pp
P 12.8
F 13.7
V 17.2
4.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
28
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 7.7%Valinor 7.7%market -0.3pp
P 2.7
F 0.0
V 7.7
7.6pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 16.5%Valinor 17.1%market -1.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 16.5
3.4pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
30
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
 13.0%Valinor 14.3%market -1.8pp
P 10.0
F 12.7
V 13.0
3.0pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
31
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 13.6%Valinor 15.8%market -2.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
32
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 15.5%Valinor 17.7%market -2.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 15.5
2.2pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
33
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 14.3%Valinor 16.7%market -2.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 14.3
0.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
34
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 16.2%market -3.2pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 13.7
1.1pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
35
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
 9.6%Valinor 12.5%market -3.4pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 9.6
5.4pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
36
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 17.4%Valinor 20.3%market -3.7pp
P 16.2
F 13.7
V 17.4
3.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
37
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 15.3%Valinor 18.6%market -4.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 15.3
1.6pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
38
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 18.4%market -4.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
39
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 11.5%Valinor 15.7%market -4.7pp
P 12.6
F 13.9
V 11.5
2.4pp 1.038xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
40
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 7
 9.0%Valinor 13.4%market -4.9pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 9.0
3.4pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
41
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 16.2%Valinor 20.3%market -4.9pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 16.2
2.5pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
42
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
 13.5%Valinor 17.7%market -4.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 13.5
0.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
43
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 18.6%market -5.3pp
P 12.7
F 12.7
V 13.9
1.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
44
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
 13.0%Valinor 18.8%market -6.5pp
P 9.2
F 12.4
V 13.0
3.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
45
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 11.9%Valinor 17.9%market -6.6pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 11.9
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
46
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 22.0%market -8.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.2pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
47
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 12.7%Valinor 20.5%market -8.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 12.7
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books

Data context

774 sample flags
Status2527roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.