Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-06 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
234
Lineups
198
HR BOARD 2026-08-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 8.9
5.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 7
 12.7%Fangorn 8.5%market +4.2pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 9.4
3.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
03
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.7pp
P 10.6
F 12.4
V 11.0
1.8pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04
Jakob Marsee MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 12.7%Fangorn 9.4%market +3.4pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 10.7
2.0pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
05
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.9
V 12.2
1.7pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 12.5%Fangorn 9.7%market +2.8pp
P 10.9
F 12.5
V 11.9
1.6pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.1pp
P 12.6
F 12.7
V 13.1
0.4pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
08
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.0pp
P 12.9
F 13.7
V 9.5
4.2pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
 12.4%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.9pp
P 11.4
F 12.4
V 9.9
2.5pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
10
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 11.3%market +1.9pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 10.1
3.1pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
11
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.9pp
P 14.9
F 13.7
V 11.0
3.9pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
12
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
13
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 13.6%market -0.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
14
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 10.8
2.5pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
15
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
 11.6%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.9pp
P 12.0
F 11.6
V 9.9
2.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
16
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 15.8
2.2pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
17
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.5
1.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
18
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 12.7
F 12.7
V 14.4
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
19
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
20
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.7pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
21
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
22
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 12.5
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
23
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.7pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 17.0
3.1pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
24
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 10.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 8.6
F 10.6
V 11.8
3.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 10.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 9.0
F 10.6
V 8.4
2.2pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
26
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 10.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 9.5
F 10.6
V 12.0
2.5pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 7
 12.7%Fangorn 11.9%market +0.8pp
P 11.7
F 12.7
V 8.2
4.5pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
28
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 8.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +0.3pp
P 8.6
F 8.0
V 9.2
1.2pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3
 10.6%Fangorn 11.0%market -0.3pp
P 12.7
F 10.6
V 11.7
2.0pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
30
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 11.6%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 10.8
F 11.6
V 14.8
4.0pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
31
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 11.8
1.5pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
32
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.3pp
P 12.0
F 13.7
V 13.4
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
33
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 13.8
1.0pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
34
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 12.9
0.4pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
35
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.8pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 11.0
1.8pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
36
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 16.1%market -3.4pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 11.5
1.2pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
37
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
 15.8%Fangorn 19.2%market -3.4pp
P 14.7
F 15.8
V 14.3
1.5pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
38
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.9
V 14.2
0.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
39
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
40
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.1pp
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
41
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 12.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.5
V 14.3
2.5pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
42
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 15.9
2.7pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
43
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -4.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 15.8
1.9pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
44
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.2
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
45
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
46
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.9pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 16.6
3.5pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
47
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 11.8
1.9pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
48
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 13.5
0.4pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
49
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.3pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 15.2
2.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
50
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 20.4%market -6.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
51
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.2pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 13.3
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
52
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 14.9
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
53
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 11.0%market -10.9pp
P 9.7
F 0.0
V 10.0
9.9pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
54
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 16.8
2.9pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2526roster/transaction rows
Lineups198confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.