Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-06 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
234
Lineups
198
HR BOARD 2026-08-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 13.1%Valinor 10.7%market +2.0pp
P 12.6
F 12.7
V 13.1
0.4pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
02
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 11.0%Valinor 8.7%market +1.9pp
P 10.6
F 12.4
V 11.0
1.8pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 11.9%Valinor 9.7%market +1.9pp
P 10.9
F 12.5
V 11.9
1.6pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
04
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 14.1%market +1.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 15.8
2.2pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
05
Jakob Marsee MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 10.7%Valinor 9.4%market +1.0pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 10.7
2.0pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
06
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 6
 12.2%Valinor 11.0%market +0.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.9
V 12.2
1.7pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 7
 9.4%Valinor 8.5%market +0.6pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 9.4
3.3pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
08
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 13.5%market +0.6pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.5
1.8pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 14.4%Valinor 13.5%market +0.4pp
P 12.7
F 12.7
V 14.4
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 13.2%Valinor 13.4%market -0.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 620 avg 3 books
11
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 8.9%Valinor 9.5%market -0.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 8.9
5.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
12
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
 9.9%Valinor 10.6%market -1.1pp
P 11.4
F 12.4
V 9.9
2.5pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
13
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1
 11.0%Valinor 11.8%market -1.3pp
P 14.9
F 13.7
V 11.0
3.9pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
14
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 6
 10.1%Valinor 11.8%market -1.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 10.1
3.1pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
15
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 13.2%Valinor 14.8%market -2.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
16
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 14.8%Valinor 16.7%market -2.4pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
17
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
 9.9%Valinor 12.0%market -2.6pp
P 12.0
F 11.6
V 9.9
2.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
18
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.7pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
19
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 9.5%Valinor 11.7%market -2.7pp
P 12.9
F 13.7
V 9.5
4.2pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
20
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 17.0%Valinor 19.1%market -2.8pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 17.0
3.1pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
21
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 10.8%Valinor 13.6%market -3.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 10.8
2.5pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
22
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
 9.7%Valinor 13.1%market -4.0pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
23
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 12.0%Valinor 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 9.5
F 10.6
V 12.0
2.5pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 7.7%market +3.8pp
P 8.6
F 10.6
V 11.8
3.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 14.8%Valinor 12.5%market +1.8pp
P 10.8
F 11.6
V 14.8
4.0pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
26
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 9.2%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 8.6
F 8.0
V 9.2
1.2pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3
 11.7%Valinor 10.5%market +0.9pp
P 12.7
F 10.6
V 11.7
2.0pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
28
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 8.4%Valinor 7.7%market +0.4pp
P 9.0
F 10.6
V 8.4
2.2pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 10.0%Valinor 10.6%market -1.0pp
P 9.7
F 0.0
V 10.0
9.9pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
30
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 15.6%Valinor 16.5%market -1.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
31
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 16.6%Valinor 17.5%market -1.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 16.6
3.5pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
32
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 15.9%Valinor 17.1%market -1.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 15.9
2.7pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 12.9%Valinor 14.8%market -2.4pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 12.9
0.4pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
34
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 15.7%market -2.5pp
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 13.8
1.0pp 1.111xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
35
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 14.3%Valinor 16.4%market -2.6pp
P 11.8
F 12.5
V 14.3
2.5pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
36
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 13.4%Valinor 15.6%market -2.7pp
P 12.0
F 13.7
V 13.4
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
37
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 15.8%Valinor 18.1%market -2.9pp
P 14.1
F 13.9
V 15.8
1.9pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
38
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 11.8%Valinor 14.5%market -3.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 11.8
1.5pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
39
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 17.1%market -3.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.9
V 14.2
0.5pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
40
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 12.0%Valinor 15.2%market -3.7pp
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
41
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 15.2%Valinor 18.8%market -4.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 15.2
2.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
42
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 7
 8.2%Valinor 12.5%market -4.3pp
P 11.7
F 12.7
V 8.2
4.5pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
43
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 17.9%market -4.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.2
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
44
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 11.0%Valinor 15.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 11.0
1.8pp 0.912xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
45
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 11.5%Valinor 15.6%market -4.6pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 11.5
1.2pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
46
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 18.8%market -5.1pp
P 14.7
F 15.8
V 14.3
1.5pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
47
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 13.4%Valinor 18.2%market -5.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 13.4
0.8pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
48
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 12.5%Valinor 17.9%market -6.0pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 12.5
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
49
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 19.1%market -6.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 13.5
0.4pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
50
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs MILDustin May · slot 4
 14.1%Valinor 19.9%market -6.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.034xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
51
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
 14.9%Valinor 21.2%market -7.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 14.9
1.7pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
52
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 18.2%market -7.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 11.8
1.9pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
53
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 20.5%market -8.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 13.3
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
54
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 16.8%Valinor 26.5%market -10.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 16.8
2.9pp 1.090xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2526roster/transaction rows
Lineups198confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.