Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
66
Matched
273
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-12 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 7
 13.2%Fangorn 8.5%market +4.7pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.4pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.0pp
P 13.0
F 13.3
V 9.0
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.6pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 9.5
3.8pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
04
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 9.7%market +3.6pp
P 11.5
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.8pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
05
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs MILDustin May · slot 7
 13.0%Fangorn 9.6%market +3.4pp
P 11.7
F 13.0
V 9.0
4.0pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
06
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.4pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 10.9
2.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
07
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
 12.8%Fangorn 10.5%market +2.3pp
P 13.0
F 12.8
V 12.1
1.0pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
08
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 11.3%market +2.0pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 10.0
3.4pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
09
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 9.8
3.9pp 1.070xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.4pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 9.8
3.4pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
11
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 7
 13.3%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 10.3
3.0pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
12
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.3pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 13.4
0.5pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
13
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 12.0%market +1.1pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 12.2
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
14
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 11.7
3.3pp 1.178xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
15
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 13.0
0.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
16
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 13.0
0.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
17
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 13.0%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.5pp
P 12.7
F 13.0
V 12.3
0.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
18
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 12.9%market +0.5pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 11.6
1.8pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
19
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -0.4pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 12.0
2.3pp 1.178xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
20
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.3
0.6pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
21
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 6
 12.9%Fangorn 13.4%market -0.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.9
V 11.1
1.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
22
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.7pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 13.9
1.7pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
23
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 13.6
0.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
24
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.5%market -1.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 12.9
1.0pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
25
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.7%market -1.3pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.5pp 1.156xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
26
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MILDustin May · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 14.9%market -1.7pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
27
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 13.8
0.5pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
28
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 1.156xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
29
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.8
1.1pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
30
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MILDustin May · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.0
V 13.2
0.2pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
31
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.5pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.8pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
33
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 15.8
2.6pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
34
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 12.5%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 9.5
F 12.5
V 13.2
3.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 12.9%Fangorn 8.3%market +4.6pp
P 10.0
F 12.9
V 10.0
2.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
36
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.5pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 10.5
2.7pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
37
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.5pp
P 8.3
F 12.1
V 14.1
5.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 10.1%market +3.1pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 14.9
3.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
39
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.1pp
P 10.9
F 11.6
V 14.2
3.3pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
40
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 14.7%market -1.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.5pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
41
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.6pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 14.0
2.3pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
42
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.7pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
43
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 12.6
1.3pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
44
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.2pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
45
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.0pp
P 13.0
F 13.3
V 12.5
0.8pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
46
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.0pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
47
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MILDustin May · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.9pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.4pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
48
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.2pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 11.8
1.6pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
49
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 14.4
1.7pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
50
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.4
2.0pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
52
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.9pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
53
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
54
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 11.8
1.9pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
55
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.4pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
56
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MILDustin May · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 18.9%market -5.6pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 13.8
0.6pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
57
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
58
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 16.7
3.2pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
59
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.7pp 1.070xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
60
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 14.3
1.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
61
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.8
0.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
62
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 14.1
0.8pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
63
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
64
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.5pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
65
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 23.0%market -9.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 16.1
2.8pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
66
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 26.3%market -13.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.068xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2515roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.