Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-12 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5 |
12.2%Valinor | 9.7%market | +2.2pp |
P
11.5
F
13.2
V
12.2
|
1.8pp | 1.088xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 900 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3 |
12.1%Valinor | 10.5%market | +1.2pp |
P
13.0
F
12.8
V
12.1
|
1.0pp | 1.088xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5 |
13.4%Valinor | 11.9%market | +1.0pp |
P
12.8
F
13.2
V
13.4
|
0.5pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 710 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 7 |
9.7%Valinor | 8.5%market | +0.9pp |
P
11.9
F
13.2
V
9.7
|
3.4pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1 |
10.9%Valinor | 9.8%market | +0.8pp |
P
11.7
F
13.2
V
10.9
|
2.2pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 5 |
13.0%Valinor | 12.3%market | +0.3pp |
P
12.3
F
13.2
V
13.0
|
0.9pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Lane Thomas
KC
IN
|
KC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5 |
13.9%Valinor | 13.3%market | +0.1pp |
P
12.2
F
13.2
V
13.9
|
1.7pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 2 |
13.0%Valinor | 13.3%market | -0.3pp |
P
13.7
F
13.3
V
13.0
|
0.7pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
IN
|
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5 |
12.2%Valinor | 12.6%market | -0.3pp |
P
12.3
F
13.2
V
12.2
|
0.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 695 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5 |
13.6%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.5pp |
P
13.0
F
13.2
V
13.6
|
0.6pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1 |
13.3%Valinor | 13.4%market | -0.6pp |
P
14.0
F
13.4
V
13.3
|
0.6pp | 1.088xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 620 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Brendan Donovan
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6 |
9.5%Valinor | 9.9%market | -0.7pp |
P
12.5
F
13.4
V
9.5
|
3.8pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 875 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4 |
12.3%Valinor | 13.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
12.7
F
13.0
V
12.3
|
0.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 665 avg 3 books |
| 14 | IN | AZ vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3 |
9.0%Valinor | 9.5%market | -0.9pp |
P
13.0
F
13.3
V
9.0
|
4.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 915 avg 3 books |
| 15 | IN | SD vs MILDustin May · slot 7 |
9.0%Valinor | 9.7%market | -1.1pp |
P
11.7
F
13.0
V
9.0
|
4.0pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 890 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5 |
13.6%Valinor | 14.2%market | -1.1pp |
P
14.9
F
13.4
V
13.6
|
1.5pp | 1.156xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2 |
11.7%Valinor | 12.5%market | -1.3pp |
P
15.0
F
13.4
V
11.7
|
3.3pp | 1.178xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 14.0%market | -1.6pp |
P
13.9
F
13.4
V
12.9
|
1.0pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 590 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.0%market | -1.7pp |
P
13.4
F
13.3
V
13.8
|
0.5pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Alec Burleson
STL
IN
|
STL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.8pp |
P
14.2
F
13.4
V
12.0
|
2.3pp | 1.178xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6 |
10.0%Valinor | 11.8%market | -1.9pp |
P
12.3
F
13.3
V
10.0
|
3.4pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 745 avg 3 books |
| 22 | IN | MIL vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 3 |
11.6%Valinor | 13.5%market | -1.9pp |
P
13.3
F
13.4
V
11.6
|
1.8pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 640 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 15.1%market | -2.0pp |
P
14.3
F
13.4
V
13.6
|
0.9pp | 1.156xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 1 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.1pp |
P
14.5
F
13.4
V
13.8
|
1.1pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 7 |
10.3%Valinor | 12.5%market | -2.2pp |
P
12.8
F
13.3
V
10.3
|
3.0pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 6 |
11.1%Valinor | 13.0%market | -2.4pp |
P
12.7
F
12.9
V
11.1
|
1.9pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 3 |
9.8%Valinor | 11.7%market | -2.4pp |
P
13.8
F
13.4
V
9.8
|
3.9pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1 |
9.8%Valinor | 11.8%market | -2.5pp |
P
12.5
F
13.2
V
9.8
|
3.4pp | 0.958xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1 |
15.8%Valinor | 17.7%market | -2.5pp |
P
13.9
F
13.2
V
15.8
|
2.6pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 30 | Lineup pending | SD vs MILDustin May · slot 4 |
12.2%Valinor | 14.4%market | -2.7pp |
P
12.8
F
13.2
V
12.2
|
1.0pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 31 | IN | SD vs MILDustin May · slot 3 |
13.2%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.0pp |
P
13.3
F
13.0
V
13.2
|
0.2pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4 |
13.9%Valinor | 16.4%market | -3.1pp |
P
13.9
F
13.4
V
13.9
|
0.5pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 33 | IN | KC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1 |
15.2%Valinor | 17.7%market | -3.2pp |
P
14.5
F
13.4
V
15.2
|
1.8pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 1 |
14.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | +6.1pp |
P
8.3
F
12.1
V
14.1
|
5.9pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1 |
13.2%Valinor | 7.7%market | +5.2pp |
P
9.5
F
12.5
V
13.2
|
3.7pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 2 |
14.9%Valinor | 10.1%market | +4.4pp |
P
11.8
F
13.2
V
14.9
|
3.1pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 1 |
14.2%Valinor | 10.5%market | +3.4pp |
P
10.9
F
11.6
V
14.2
|
3.3pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 1 |
10.5%Valinor | 8.7%market | +1.5pp |
P
11.6
F
13.2
V
10.5
|
2.7pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Steven Kwan
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2 |
10.0%Valinor | 8.3%market | +1.4pp |
P
10.0
F
12.9
V
10.0
|
2.9pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 4 |
15.3%Valinor | 14.0%market | +0.7pp |
P
12.8
F
13.2
V
15.3
|
2.5pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 585 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs BALShane Baz · slot 5 |
14.0%Valinor | 15.2%market | -1.7pp |
P
11.7
F
13.2
V
14.0
|
2.3pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Zach Neto
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1 |
15.4%Valinor | 16.7%market | -1.8pp |
P
14.0
F
13.4
V
15.4
|
2.0pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 43 | IN | NYY vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5 |
16.7%Valinor | 18.6%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.0
F
13.4
V
16.7
|
3.2pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4 |
15.4%Valinor | 17.4%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.3
F
13.4
V
15.4
|
2.0pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Ben Rice
NYY
IN
|
NYY vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6 |
13.2%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.0pp |
P
13.3
F
13.4
V
13.2
|
0.2pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | KC vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4 |
15.8%Valinor | 18.2%market | -3.1pp |
P
14.2
F
13.4
V
15.8
|
2.4pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3 |
14.4%Valinor | 17.1%market | -3.3pp |
P
12.8
F
13.3
V
14.4
|
1.7pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2 |
12.6%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.6pp |
P
14.0
F
13.4
V
12.6
|
1.3pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 49 | IN | BOS vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3 |
12.2%Valinor | 15.3%market | -3.7pp |
P
12.8
F
13.2
V
12.2
|
1.0pp | 0.958xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4 |
12.5%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.8pp |
P
13.0
F
13.3
V
12.5
|
0.8pp | 0.958xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 51 | Lineup pending | SD vs MILDustin May · slot 1 |
13.1%Valinor | 16.7%market | -4.1pp |
P
13.5
F
13.4
V
13.1
|
0.4pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1 |
13.8%Valinor | 17.5%market | -4.3pp |
P
14.2
F
13.4
V
13.8
|
0.9pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 450 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Mike Trout
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2 |
15.0%Valinor | 18.8%market | -4.4pp |
P
13.8
F
13.4
V
15.0
|
1.6pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2 |
15.0%Valinor | 18.9%market | -4.6pp |
P
14.3
F
13.4
V
15.0
|
1.7pp | 1.070xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2 |
13.4%Valinor | 17.4%market | -4.6pp |
P
13.4
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 56 | IN | SD vs MILDustin May · slot 2 |
13.8%Valinor | 18.4%market | -5.3pp |
P
13.2
F
13.3
V
13.8
|
0.6pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Jo Adell
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4 |
14.3%Valinor | 19.1%market | -5.5pp |
P
13.1
F
13.4
V
14.3
|
1.1pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 58 | IN | TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2 |
11.8%Valinor | 17.1%market | -5.9pp |
P
13.2
F
13.4
V
11.8
|
1.6pp | 0.958xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
IN
|
PIT vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4 |
14.1%Valinor | 19.9%market | -6.5pp |
P
13.7
F
13.3
V
14.1
|
0.8pp | 1.010xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 60 | IN | AZ vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1 |
11.9%Valinor | 17.9%market | -6.6pp |
P
14.2
F
13.4
V
11.9
|
2.4pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
George Springer
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1 |
11.8%Valinor | 17.9%market | -6.7pp |
P
13.7
F
13.3
V
11.8
|
1.9pp | 0.958xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 2 |
16.1%Valinor | 22.4%market | -7.2pp |
P
13.9
F
13.3
V
16.1
|
2.8pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 330 avg 3 books |
| 63 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CWSLuis Castillo · slot 3 |
14.8%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.2pp |
P
13.3
F
13.2
V
14.8
|
1.5pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 64 |
José Ramírez
CLE
IN
|
CLE vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1 |
12.8%Valinor | 19.9%market | -7.8pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
12.8
|
0.9pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 65 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
IN
|
AZ vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2 |
12.7%Valinor | 20.5%market | -8.6pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
12.7
|
1.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 66 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3 |
14.2%Valinor | 25.8%market | -12.4pp |
P
14.2
F
13.2
V
14.2
|
1.1pp | 1.068xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 275 avg 3 books |
Data context
0 sample flagsStatus2515roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.