Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
213
Lineups
252
HR BOARD 2026-08-14 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 13.0%Fangorn 8.5%market +4.5pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 8.1
4.9pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
02
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 13.0%Fangorn 9.6%market +3.4pp
P 11.8
F 13.0
V 9.3
3.7pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
03
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 11.0
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
04
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.9pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
05
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.9
0.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
06
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 10.6
2.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
07
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -0.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 11.5
1.9pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
08
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 12.9%Fangorn 13.4%market -0.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.9
V 10.9
2.0pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
09
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 11.4
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
10
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 14.5
1.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
11
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.9pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
12
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 14.3%market -1.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 10.3
3.0pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
13
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 14.9%market -1.7pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
14
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 11.8
1.6pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
15
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
16
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
17
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.0
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
18
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 6
 4.4%Fangorn 12.1%market -7.7pp
P 12.2
F 4.4
V 10.9
7.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
19
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 6
 13.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.3pp
P 10.1
F 13.0
V 7.6
5.4pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
20
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 12.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.2pp
P 9.8
F 12.9
V 10.7
3.2pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
21
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.2
F 12.8
V 11.2
3.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
22
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 13.0%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.3pp
P 10.7
F 13.0
V 10.6
2.4pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
23
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 8.3
F 11.6
V 9.7
3.4pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.2pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 9.3
3.9pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
25
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 12.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.1pp
P 10.3
F 12.9
V 10.3
2.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
26
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 13.0%Fangorn 12.0%market +1.0pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 13.7
2.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
27
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.9pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.5pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
28
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.7pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 10.7
2.6pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
29
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 12.8%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.3pp
P 11.2
F 12.8
V 12.8
1.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
30
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.7%market -1.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.5
1.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
31
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
32
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.6pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 12.4
0.9pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
33
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
34
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
35
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORShane Bieber · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.0pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
36
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.6
1.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
37
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
38
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 11.6
2.6pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
39
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.9pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
40
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.7pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 14.4
1.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
41
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
 4.4%Fangorn 9.2%market -4.8pp
P 10.8
F 4.4
V 9.7
6.4pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
42
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -5.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
43
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.6
0.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
44
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 18.9%market -5.6pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.6pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
45
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 12.2
1.2pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
46
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 15.7
2.3pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
47
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
48
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.3pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
49
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 20.2%market -7.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
50
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
51
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
52
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.4pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
53
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.5
1.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
54
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 23.3%market -10.3pp
P 12.0
F 13.0
V 12.4
1.0pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2509roster/transaction rows
Lineups252confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.