Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-14 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
213
Lineups
252
HR BOARD 2026-08-14 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 14.5
1.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
02
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 12.3%market +0.1pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
03
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 12.9%Valinor 13.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.9
0.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
04
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 11.0%Valinor 11.2%market -0.6pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 11.0
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
05
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 9.3%Valinor 9.7%market -0.8pp
P 11.8
F 13.0
V 9.3
3.7pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
06
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 8.1%Valinor 8.7%market -0.9pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 8.1
4.9pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1005 avg 3 books
07
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 6
 10.9%Valinor 12.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.2
F 4.4
V 10.9
7.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 725 avg 3 books
08
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 15.7%market -1.6pp
P 13.3
F 13.0
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
09
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.2%Valinor 14.4%market -1.7pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
10
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 15.1%market -1.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
11
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 13.7%market -1.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
12
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 15.3%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
13
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 3
 11.5%Valinor 13.3%market -2.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 11.5
1.9pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
14
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 10.9%Valinor 13.0%market -2.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.9
V 10.9
2.0pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
15
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6
 11.4%Valinor 13.6%market -2.7pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 11.4
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
16
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
 10.6%Valinor 13.0%market -2.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 10.6
2.8pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
17
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
 11.8%Valinor 15.0%market -3.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 11.8
1.6pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
18
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6
 10.3%Valinor 13.8%market -4.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 10.3
3.0pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
19
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 3
 12.4%Valinor 22.7%market -11.2pp
P 12.0
F 13.0
V 12.4
1.0pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
20
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 11.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 9.2
F 12.8
V 11.2
3.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
21
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 10.7%Valinor 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 9.8
F 12.9
V 10.7
3.2pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
22
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
 9.7%Valinor 7.7%market +1.7pp
P 8.3
F 11.6
V 9.7
3.4pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 10.6%Valinor 8.7%market +1.6pp
P 10.7
F 13.0
V 10.6
2.4pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
24
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 12.0%market +1.1pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 13.7
2.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
25
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
 9.7%Valinor 8.7%market +0.6pp
P 10.8
F 4.4
V 9.7
6.4pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
26
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 9.8%market +0.1pp
P 10.3
F 12.9
V 10.3
2.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
27
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 13.1%market -0.3pp
P 11.2
F 12.8
V 12.8
1.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
28
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 6
 7.6%Valinor 7.7%market -0.4pp
P 10.1
F 13.0
V 7.6
5.4pp 0.941xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 15.3%market -1.2pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
30
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 9.3%Valinor 10.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 9.3
3.9pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
31
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
 13.5%Valinor 14.2%market -1.2pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.5
1.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
32
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 2
 11.2%Valinor 12.5%market -1.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.5pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
33
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
 10.7%Valinor 12.5%market -2.3pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 10.7
2.6pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
34
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 13.7%Valinor 15.6%market -2.5pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
35
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 14.4%Valinor 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
36
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 13.3%Valinor 15.5%market -2.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
37
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 14.4%Valinor 16.7%market -2.8pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
38
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 15.3%market -3.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 12.4
0.9pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
39
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 15.7%Valinor 18.6%market -3.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 15.7
2.3pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
40
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 17.4%market -3.6pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 14.4
1.7pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
41
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORShane Bieber · slot 6
 12.4%Valinor 15.7%market -3.8pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.0pp 0.999xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
42
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
43
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 15.3%Valinor 18.8%market -4.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
44
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 18.4%market -4.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.6pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
45
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 12.6%Valinor 16.7%market -4.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.6
1.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
46
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 17.7%market -4.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.6
0.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
47
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 11.6%Valinor 16.7%market -5.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 11.6
2.6pp 0.969xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
48
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 19.7%market -6.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
49
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 20.3%market -6.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
50
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 14.3%Valinor 19.9%market -6.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
51
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 15.0%Valinor 21.2%market -7.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
52
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 12.2%Valinor 18.8%market -7.2pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 12.2
1.2pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
53
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 14.5%Valinor 21.2%market -7.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.5
1.5pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
54
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 11.6%Valinor 19.1%market -8.2pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2509roster/transaction rows
Lineups252confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.