Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-20 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
32
Matched
129
Lineups
162
HR BOARD 2026-08-20 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 15.3%Palantir 11.1%market +4.2pp
P 15.3
F 12.1
V 10.6
4.6pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 6
 11.5%Palantir 7.7%market +3.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.8
V 8.6
4.3pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 12.1%Palantir 10.0%market +2.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 10.4
2.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
04
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
 11.9%Palantir 9.8%market +2.0pp
P 11.9
F 12.7
V 9.8
3.0pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
05
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 14.4%Palantir 12.5%market +1.9pp
P 14.4
F 12.8
V 13.5
1.5pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
06
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 15.5%Palantir 13.9%market +1.6pp
P 15.5
F 14.2
V 12.0
3.5pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
07
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 12.4%market +1.4pp
P 13.8
F 12.8
V 11.6
2.3pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
08
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 12.7%market +1.1pp
P 13.8
F 14.2
V 12.6
1.6pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
09
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 12.7%market +0.4pp
P 13.1
F 12.5
V 12.3
0.8pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
10
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 13.3%Palantir 13.8%market -0.5pp
P 13.3
F 12.8
V 13.7
0.9pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
11
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 14.9%market -1.0pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 14.3
0.3pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
12
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 11.9%Palantir 13.0%market -1.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.5
V 13.2
1.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
13
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 12.4%Palantir 13.5%market -1.1pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 9.1
3.7pp 0.956xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
14
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 15.8%market -1.4pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
15
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 11.7%Palantir 13.4%market -1.7pp
P 11.7
F 11.5
V 11.7
0.2pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
16
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 11.1%Palantir 12.8%market -1.7pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 13.6
2.5pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
17
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 14.2%market -1.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
18
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 14.4%Palantir 17.2%market -2.9pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 14.5
0.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
19
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 7.5%Palantir 8.0%market -0.5pp
P 7.5
F 10.3
V 8.2
2.8pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
20
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 7.1%Palantir 8.0%market -0.9pp
P 7.1
F 11.3
V 11.4
4.4pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
21
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 13.7%market -1.6pp
P 12.1
F 12.5
V 12.5
0.4pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
22
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 5.9%Palantir 8.0%market -2.1pp
P 5.9
F 9.7
V 9.0
3.8pp 0.956xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
23
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 7.0%Palantir 9.2%market -2.1pp
P 7.0
F 10.3
V 11.3
4.3pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
24
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 5.1%Palantir 8.0%market -2.9pp
P 5.1
F 3.7
V 7.4
3.7pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
25
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
 11.5%Palantir 16.3%market -4.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.7
V 12.5
1.3pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
26
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 12.0%Palantir 17.7%market -5.7pp
P 12.0
F 12.2
V 12.8
0.8pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
27
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 12.4%Palantir 19.2%market -6.8pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
28
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 12.3%Palantir 20.4%market -8.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 15.1
2.9pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
29
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 12.3%Palantir 20.8%market -8.6pp
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
30
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 22.0%market -9.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.0pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
31
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 12.5%Palantir 21.7%market -9.2pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 14.9
2.6pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
32
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 10.7%Palantir 23.3%market -12.5pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.6
1.0pp 0.956xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2476roster/transaction rows
Lineups162confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.