Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-20 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
32
Matched
129
Lineups
162
HR BOARD 2026-08-20 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 13.6%Valinor 12.3%market +0.9pp
P 11.1
F 12.2
V 13.6
2.5pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
02
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 6
 8.6%Valinor 7.7%market +0.6pp
P 11.5
F 12.8
V 8.6
4.3pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 12.5%market +0.5pp
P 14.4
F 12.8
V 13.5
1.5pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
04
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 13.2%Valinor 12.5%market +0.2pp
P 11.9
F 12.5
V 13.2
1.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
05
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 13.7%Valinor 13.3%market -0.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.8
V 13.7
0.9pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
06
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 10.4%Valinor 10.1%market -0.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 10.4
2.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
 9.8%Valinor 10.0%market -0.6pp
P 11.9
F 12.7
V 9.8
3.0pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
08
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 14.4%market -0.7pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 14.3
0.3pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
09
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 3
 12.6%Valinor 13.3%market -0.7pp
P 13.8
F 14.2
V 12.6
1.6pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
10
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 5
 13.3%Valinor 13.6%market -0.9pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
11
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 10.6%Valinor 11.1%market -0.9pp
P 15.3
F 12.1
V 10.6
4.6pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
12
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
 12.3%Valinor 13.3%market -1.0pp
P 13.1
F 12.5
V 12.3
0.8pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
13
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 11.6%Valinor 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 13.8
F 12.8
V 11.6
2.3pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
14
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 11.7%Valinor 13.0%market -1.7pp
P 11.7
F 11.5
V 11.7
0.2pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
15
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 15.3%market -1.9pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 14.0
1.5pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
16
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 12.0%Valinor 14.1%market -2.6pp
P 15.5
F 14.2
V 12.0
3.5pp 1.201xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
17
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 16.7%market -2.8pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 14.5
0.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
18
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 9.1%Valinor 13.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 9.1
3.7pp 0.956xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
19
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 11.6%Valinor 22.7%market -11.9pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.6
1.0pp 0.956xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
20
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 7.1
F 11.3
V 11.4
4.4pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
21
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 11.3%Valinor 8.7%market +2.3pp
P 7.0
F 10.3
V 11.3
4.3pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
22
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 9.0%Valinor 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 5.9
F 9.7
V 9.0
3.8pp 0.956xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 8.2%Valinor 7.7%market +0.1pp
P 7.5
F 10.3
V 8.2
2.8pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 1
 7.4%Valinor 7.7%market -0.6pp
P 5.1
F 3.7
V 7.4
3.7pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 12.5%Valinor 13.2%market -1.2pp
P 12.1
F 12.5
V 12.5
0.4pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
26
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
 12.5%Valinor 15.7%market -3.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.7
V 12.5
1.3pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
27
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 18.6%market -4.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
28
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 17.1%market -4.9pp
P 12.0
F 12.2
V 12.8
0.8pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
29
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 15.1%Valinor 19.9%market -5.5pp
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 15.1
2.9pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
30
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 14.0%Valinor 20.3%market -7.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 14.0
1.8pp 0.907xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
31
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 14.9%Valinor 21.2%market -7.1pp
P 12.5
F 12.2
V 14.9
2.6pp 1.079xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
32
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TORShane Bieber · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 21.5%market -8.3pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.0pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2476roster/transaction rows
Lineups162confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.