Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
59
Matched
240
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.4pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.5pp 1.181xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 8.9%market +3.3pp
P 11.7
F 12.1
V 10.4
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
03
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 10.0%market +2.1pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 7.3
4.8pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
04
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 7
 11.7%Fangorn 9.6%market +2.1pp
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 8.9
2.8pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
05
Ramón Urías STL
IN
STL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 10.4%market +2.0pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 10.0
2.4pp 1.180xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
06
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.9pp
P 9.3
F 11.7
V 9.7
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
07
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 14.1%Fangorn 12.7%market +1.4pp
P 14.2
F 14.1
V 11.8
2.4pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
08
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 13.1%market +1.0pp
P 15.5
F 14.1
V 12.2
3.3pp 1.180xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
09
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.0
F 11.3
V 10.6
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
10
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 7
 12.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 11.7
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
11
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 13.7
1.9pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
12
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 14.9%market -0.8pp
P 14.3
F 14.1
V 14.4
0.3pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
13
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 11.9
0.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
14
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.1pp
P 11.4
F 11.9
V 11.1
0.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
15
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 13.9%market -1.3pp
P 13.7
F 12.6
V 10.6
3.1pp 1.181xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
16
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 14.1%Fangorn 15.6%market -1.5pp
P 16.0
F 14.1
V 14.0
2.0pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
17
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.0pp
P 12.5
F 12.1
V 12.5
0.4pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
18
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 12.5
1.6pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
19
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 11.6
F 11.9
V 13.6
2.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.0pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
21
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 14.1%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.0pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 14.0
1.1pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
22
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
23
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 15.8
3.3pp 1.136xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
24
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 14.9%market -3.1pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.2
0.4pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
25
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 12.9
0.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.4pp
P 14.6
F 14.1
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
27
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.4pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 12.3
0.4pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
28
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.6pp
P 13.0
F 11.7
V 14.8
3.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
29
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 12.7
1.7pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
30
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.8pp
P 15.5
F 12.6
V 14.1
2.9pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
31
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.2pp
P 13.6
F 12.1
V 15.8
3.7pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
32
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.9pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.5
2.7pp 1.181xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
33
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 11.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.2pp
P 9.4
F 11.9
V 9.0
2.8pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.5
F 9.9
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.3
F 9.9
V 10.3
4.1pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 9.3%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.7pp
P 9.2
F 9.3
V 12.0
2.8pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
37
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.4pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 13.4
2.8pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
38
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.6pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
0.8pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
39
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 11.9
F 12.6
V 12.2
0.6pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
40
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.0pp
P 10.0
F 11.7
V 12.4
2.3pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
41
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 16.1%market -4.3pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.6
2.1pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
42
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
 3.5%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 4.5
F 3.5
V 7.3
3.8pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 12.2
0.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
44
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 17.2%market -4.7pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
45
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 17.2%market -4.7pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 12.7
1.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
46
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.1
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
47
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.3pp
P 11.8
F 12.4
V 14.3
2.6pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
48
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 14.2
1.6pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
50
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
51
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.4pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 15.0
2.6pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
52
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
53
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.1pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 11.8
1.7pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
54
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 20.4%market -8.3pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
55
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 13.9
1.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
56
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.2pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
57
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.4pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.3
0.7pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
58
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 23.0%market -10.9pp
P 13.6
F 12.1
V 16.4
4.3pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
59
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 25.6%market -14.3pp
P 12.5
F 11.3
V 14.9
3.6pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2460roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.