Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-23 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
59
Matched
240
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 11.9%market +1.4pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 13.7
1.9pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
 10.4%Valinor 8.9%market +1.2pp
P 11.7
F 12.1
V 10.4
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
03
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 15.8%Valinor 14.9%market +0.3pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 15.8
3.3pp 1.136xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
04
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 13.6%Valinor 13.6%market -0.5pp
P 11.6
F 11.9
V 13.6
2.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
05
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 14.4%market -0.6pp
P 14.3
F 14.1
V 14.4
0.3pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
06
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 8.6%Valinor 8.9%market -0.6pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.5pp 1.181xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 985 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
 9.7%Valinor 10.0%market -0.7pp
P 9.3
F 11.7
V 9.7
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
08
Ramón Urías STL
IN
STL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 10.0%Valinor 10.4%market -0.8pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 10.0
2.4pp 1.180xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 820 avg 3 books
09
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
 10.6%Valinor 11.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.0
F 11.3
V 10.6
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
 11.9%Valinor 13.0%market -1.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 11.9
0.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
11
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 7
 8.9%Valinor 9.7%market -1.2pp
P 10.9
F 11.7
V 8.9
2.8pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
12
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 15.7%market -1.5pp
P 13.0
F 11.7
V 14.8
3.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
13
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 12.2%Valinor 13.2%market -1.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.1
V 12.2
3.3pp 1.180xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
14
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 11.8%Valinor 13.3%market -1.5pp
P 14.2
F 14.1
V 11.8
2.4pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
15
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 13.5%Valinor 14.5%market -1.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 13.5
1.0pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
16
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 15.1%market -1.6pp
P 16.0
F 14.1
V 14.0
2.0pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
17
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3
 14.0%Valinor 15.1%market -1.6pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
18
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 12.5%Valinor 13.6%market -1.7pp
P 12.5
F 12.1
V 12.5
0.4pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
19
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 3
 11.1%Valinor 12.5%market -1.9pp
P 11.4
F 11.9
V 11.1
0.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
20
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
 12.5%Valinor 14.1%market -2.1pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 12.5
1.6pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
21
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 17.7%market -2.5pp
P 13.6
F 12.1
V 15.8
3.7pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
22
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 12.9
0.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
23
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 12.2%Valinor 14.4%market -2.7pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.2
0.4pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
24
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 16.7%market -3.2pp
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 14.0
1.1pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
25
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 7.3%Valinor 10.1%market -3.2pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 7.3
4.8pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
26
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
 10.6%Valinor 13.4%market -3.3pp
P 13.7
F 12.6
V 10.6
3.1pp 1.181xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
27
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 17.1%market -3.6pp
P 14.6
F 14.1
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
28
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 12.3%Valinor 15.5%market -3.7pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 12.3
0.4pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
29
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 7
 8.6%Valinor 12.5%market -3.9pp
P 11.7
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
30
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 14.1%Valinor 17.9%market -4.4pp
P 15.5
F 12.6
V 14.1
2.9pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
31
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 12.7%Valinor 17.2%market -5.1pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 12.7
1.7pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
32
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 13.5%Valinor 19.9%market -7.1pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.5
2.7pp 1.181xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
33
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 14.9%Valinor 25.1%market -11.1pp
P 12.5
F 11.3
V 14.9
3.6pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
34
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +2.3pp
P 6.3
F 9.9
V 10.3
4.1pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 9.1%Valinor 7.7%market +1.1pp
P 6.5
F 9.9
V 9.1
3.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 12.0%Valinor 10.5%market +1.1pp
P 9.2
F 9.3
V 12.0
2.8pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
37
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 6
 9.0%Valinor 7.7%market +1.1pp
P 9.4
F 11.9
V 9.0
2.8pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
 7.3%Valinor 7.7%market -0.7pp
P 4.5
F 3.5
V 7.3
3.8pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 14.8%market -1.9pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 13.4
2.8pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
40
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 15.6%market -2.5pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.6
2.1pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
41
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 14.6%Valinor 16.7%market -2.6pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
42
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 12.7%Valinor 15.0%market -2.8pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
0.8pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
43
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 14.3%Valinor 17.1%market -3.4pp
P 11.8
F 12.4
V 14.3
2.6pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
44
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 15.2%market -3.4pp
P 10.0
F 11.7
V 12.4
2.3pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
45
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 17.4%market -3.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
46
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 18.6%market -4.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
47
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 15.0%Valinor 18.4%market -4.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 15.0
2.6pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
48
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 6
 12.2%Valinor 15.7%market -4.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.6
V 12.2
0.6pp 1.148xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
49
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 2
 12.7%Valinor 16.7%market -4.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.6
V 12.7
1.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
50
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 18.2%market -4.7pp
P 12.8
F 12.6
V 14.2
1.6pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
51
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 12.2%Valinor 16.4%market -4.8pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 12.2
0.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
52
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.9%Valinor 18.2%market -5.0pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
53
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 13.6%Valinor 18.8%market -5.9pp
P 14.6
F 14.1
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
54
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 19.7%market -6.2pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
55
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 16.4%Valinor 22.4%market -6.8pp
P 13.6
F 12.1
V 16.4
4.3pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
56
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 2
 15.1%Valinor 21.2%market -6.9pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
57
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 20.5%market -7.4pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 13.9
1.5pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
58
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 11.8%Valinor 19.1%market -8.0pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 11.8
1.7pp 1.212xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
59
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 13.3%Valinor 21.5%market -9.0pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 13.3
0.7pp 1.154xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2460roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.