Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-27 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
35
Matched
129
Lineups
126
HR BOARD 2026-08-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.3pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 10.5
1.6pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
02
Ramón Urías STL
IN
STL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 10.4%market +1.5pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 10.3
1.6pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
03
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +0.7pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 7.0
5.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
04
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 12.6
F 12.1
V 10.7
1.8pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
05
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 14.7
2.4pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
06
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.1pp
P 14.4
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.8pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
07
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.2pp
P 13.4
F 11.9
V 11.0
2.4pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
08
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 11.3%Fangorn 13.0%market -1.7pp
P 9.4
F 11.3
V 15.4
6.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
09
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
 12.1%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 8.7
3.5pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
10
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
1.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
11
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
 11.3%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.5pp
P 10.2
F 11.3
V 8.3
3.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
12
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 14.8
F 12.6
V 13.2
2.2pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
13
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 11.7%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.0pp
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 12.3
2.8pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
14
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 9.3%market +2.4pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 8.6
3.1pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
15
Carlos Santana AZ
AZ vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 11.3%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.9pp
P 9.7
F 11.3
V 12.4
2.6pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
16
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 16.6
4.1pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
17
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
 12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 11.8
0.8pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
18
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.9pp
P 10.3
F 12.1
V 11.2
1.8pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
19
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 16.4%market -4.3pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 12.7
0.8pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
20
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 13.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.4pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
21
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 16.7%market -4.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 12.8
0.9pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
22
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 12.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.9
V 17.1
4.2pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
23
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 17.5%market -5.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 12.4
0.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
24
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
 11.7%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.2pp
P 10.1
F 11.7
V 12.5
2.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
25
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.6pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 18.1
5.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
26
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.9pp
P 12.6
F 12.1
V 17.7
5.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
27
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.9pp
P 13.7
F 12.4
V 12.4
1.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
28
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.9pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 14.4
2.0pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
29
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.5pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 11.6
0.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
30
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.7pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
31
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -7.2pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 13.0
1.1pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
32
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.3pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 10.7
2.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
33
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -7.6pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
34
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 11.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.9pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 12.3
0.7pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
35
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 29.0%market -16.6pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 16.2
4.2pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups126confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.