Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-27 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
35
Matched
129
Lineups
126
HR BOARD 2026-08-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 5
 15.4%Valinor 12.5%market +2.5pp
P 9.4
F 11.3
V 15.4
6.0pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 12.9%market +1.3pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 14.7
2.4pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
 10.5%Valinor 9.8%market +0.3pp
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 10.5
1.6pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
04
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 13.8%Valinor 13.1%market +0.2pp
P 14.4
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.8pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
05
Ramón Urías STL
IN
STL vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 10.3%Valinor 10.4%market -0.6pp
P 10.6
F 11.9
V 10.3
1.6pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 820 avg 3 books
06
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 5
 12.7%Valinor 14.1%market -1.4pp
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
1.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
07
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
 10.7%Valinor 12.0%market -1.8pp
P 12.6
F 12.1
V 10.7
1.8pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
08
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 11.0%Valinor 13.1%market -2.1pp
P 13.4
F 11.9
V 11.0
2.4pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
09
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
 13.2%Valinor 17.2%market -4.7pp
P 14.8
F 12.6
V 13.2
2.2pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
10
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
 7.0%Valinor 11.7%market -5.2pp
P 11.9
F 12.4
V 7.0
5.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
11
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
 8.7%Valinor 13.6%market -5.4pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 8.7
3.5pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
12
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
 8.3%Valinor 13.3%market -5.5pp
P 10.2
F 11.3
V 8.3
3.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
13
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 16.2%Valinor 28.4%market -13.2pp
P 12.0
F 12.4
V 16.2
4.2pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
14
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 12.3%Valinor 8.7%market +3.3pp
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 12.3
2.8pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
15
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 1
 18.1%Valinor 16.9%market +0.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 18.1
5.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
16
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 16.6%Valinor 15.5%market +0.5pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 16.6
4.1pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
17
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 4
 17.7%Valinor 17.5%market -0.5pp
P 12.6
F 12.1
V 17.7
5.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
18
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs TORSpencer Arrighetti · slot 3
 17.1%Valinor 17.1%market -0.6pp
P 14.2
F 12.9
V 17.1
4.2pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
19
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 8.6%Valinor 9.5%market -1.2pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 8.6
3.1pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
20
Carlos Santana AZ
AZ vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 13.7%market -1.8pp
P 9.7
F 11.3
V 12.4
2.6pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
21
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 12.7%Valinor 15.8%market -3.7pp
P 12.9
F 12.1
V 12.7
0.8pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
22
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 16.2%market -4.0pp
P 13.0
F 12.1
V 12.8
0.9pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
23
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 18.6%market -4.1pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
24
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 14.4%Valinor 17.9%market -4.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 14.4
2.0pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
25
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
 12.5%Valinor 16.4%market -4.4pp
P 10.1
F 11.7
V 12.5
2.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
26
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
 11.8%Valinor 15.7%market -4.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 11.8
0.8pp 1.001xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
27
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
 11.2%Valinor 15.6%market -4.9pp
P 10.3
F 12.1
V 11.2
1.8pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
28
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 18.8%market -5.2pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 14.2
2.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
29
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 12.4%Valinor 17.1%market -5.3pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 12.4
0.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
30
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 12.4%Valinor 17.9%market -6.1pp
P 13.7
F 12.4
V 12.4
1.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
31
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
 13.0%Valinor 18.6%market -6.2pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 13.0
1.1pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
32
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 11.6%Valinor 17.4%market -6.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 11.6
3.0pp 1.188xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
33
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 11.6%Valinor 17.7%market -6.7pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 11.6
0.4pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
34
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
 10.7%Valinor 18.9%market -8.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 10.7
2.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
35
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 12.3%Valinor 21.2%market -9.7pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 12.3
0.7pp 1.025xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups126confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.