Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline
Home Run Hub
A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.
Top Plays
The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.
No activated HR plays were found for this slate.
High-Upside Board
A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.
High-Upside board not available for this slate.
Snapshot
A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.
Market Signals
The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.
Value Rank #1
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola
Value Rank #2
NYM vs PHI | Aaron Nola
Full Gap Board
The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.
Analytics
This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.
History
| Date | Rows | Recommendations | Signals | Grading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2026-07-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
210 matched
36 unmatched
|
8 / 42 / 63
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
195 matched
0 unmatched
|
34 / 57 / 24
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
CJ Abrams | 48.1
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
312 matched
0 unmatched
|
42 / 82 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
William Contreras | 54.0
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
315 matched
0 unmatched
|
19 / 67 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Brandon Nimmo | 44.4
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
291 matched
0 unmatched
|
5 / 61 / 72
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Brandon Nimmo | 36.1
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
87 matched
0 unmatched
|
3 / 25 / 26
Strong / Play / Lean
|
4
Nick Castellanos | 39.1
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
294 matched
24 unmatched
|
15 / 61 / 60
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Trea Turner | 45.0
|
--
Signals --
|
|
2026-07-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
|
231 matched
0 unmatched
|
13 / 50 / 42
Strong / Play / Lean
|
5
Andrew Benintendi | 43.0
|
--
Signals --
|
Analytics
Play Tiers
Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%
Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%
Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%
Sportsbooks
BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%
DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%
FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%
Odds Buckets
+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%
+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%
+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%
