Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-14 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-07-14

0 activated plays

Gap rows 51

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-07-16 Older: 2026-07-12

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-07-28 2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-21

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

No plus-money HR market signals were found in the saved artifact for this slate.

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Kyle Schwarber

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.48%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +250 / U -300

+5.48%

27.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +260 / U -325

+4.01%

26.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +255 / U --

-8.65%

28.2%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Marsh

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 7

Play

Best Gap +5.47%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +720 / U -1050

+5.47%

11.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +715 / U -1110

+5.40%

11.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +715 / U --

+5.40%

12.3%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cj Abrams

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +4.77%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+4.77%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+4.77%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +615 / U --

+4.67%

14.0%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.04%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +630 / U -930

+4.04%

13.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +625 / U -875

+3.95%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+3.95%

13.8%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.93%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +300 / U -370

+3.93%

24.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +315 / U -395

+2.85%

23.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +305 / U --

-7.34%

24.7%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Freddie Freeman

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.09%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +500 / U -695

+3.09%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -650

+2.95%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +495 / U --

+2.95%

16.8%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andy Pages

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 8

No Play

Best Gap +1.66%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+1.66%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+1.55%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+1.55%

14.7%

Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.6

Juan Soto

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.44%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +315 / U -385

+1.44%

23.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +325 / U -410

+0.43%

22.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +320 / U --

-4.63%

23.8%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bobby Witt Jr.

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +490 / U -675

+1.40%

16.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +485 / U --

+1.26%

17.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -630

+1.11%

16.7%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Shea Langeliers

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +330 / U -410

+1.06%

22.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +345 / U -440

-0.03%

21.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +335 / U --

-4.44%

23.0%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cody Bellinger

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.38%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

+0.38%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+0.24%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+0.10%

16.2%

Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Drake Baldwin

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 9

No Play

Best Gap +0.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -750

+0.31%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -705

+0.19%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

+0.19%

15.9%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yordan Alvarez

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+0.15%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

-0.84%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-3.44%

22.0%

Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Max Muncy

NL vs AL | Dylan Cease | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +365 / U -455

-0.01%

20.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +375 / U -485

-0.94%

20.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +370 / U --

-3.25%

21.3%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Riley Greene

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 8

No Play

Best Gap -0.73%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +490 / U -675

-0.73%

16.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -635

-0.87%

16.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +485 / U --

-0.87%

17.1%

Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mike Trout

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.80%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +355 / U -440

-0.80%

21.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +365 / U -475

-1.93%

20.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-2.42%

21.7%

Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ben Rice

AL vs NL | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.52%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -600

-1.52%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.58%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-1.89%

17.7%

Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 422

Latest Date 2026-07-28

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-07-28 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	210 matched 36 unmatched	8 / 42 / 63 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 39.6	-- Signals --
2026-07-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	34 / 57 / 24 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	42 / 82 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 54.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 0 unmatched	19 / 67 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 44.4	-- Signals --
2026-07-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	5 / 61 / 72 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 36.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	87 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 25 / 26 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Nick Castellanos \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 24 unmatched	15 / 61 / 60 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 45.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	231 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 50 / 42 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Andrew Benintendi \| 43.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%