Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-17 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-17
0 activated plays
Gap rows 216
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-07-18 Older: 2026-07-16

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-21 2026-07-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Ian Happ

Strong

CHC vs MIN | Bailey Ober

Value Score 38.6
Odds / Gap +550 / +7.19%
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.107x

Value Rank #2

Josh Bell

Play

MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea

Value Score 35.2
Odds / Gap +550 / +6.69%
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.107x

Value Rank #3

Christian Yelich

Play

MIL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara

Value Score 32.9
Odds / Gap +485 / +4.90%
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.126x

Value Rank #4

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs CIN | Brady Singer

Value Score 32.0
Odds / Gap +670 / +7.13%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.117x

Value Rank #5

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill

Value Score 26.1
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.01%
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.033x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+7.43%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+7.27%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.27%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.5
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+7.19%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+7.07%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+7.07%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+7.13%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+7.13%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+7.05%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+7.07%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+7.01%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+7.01%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+6.91%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+6.80%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+6.74%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.69%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.57%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.57%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+6.68%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+6.68%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.68%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+6.25%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+6.25%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+6.17%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.2
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+6.18%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+6.18%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+6.10%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.06%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+6.06%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+4.78%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-9.12%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+6.03%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.88%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.88%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+6.03%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+5.96%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+5.96%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.01%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.01%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.92%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+5.91%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+5.91%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.91%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.88%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.88%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.78%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+5.81%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.74%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.74%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.67%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.58%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.58%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.62%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.56%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.49%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+5.36%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+5.24%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+5.24%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+5.00%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+4.88%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+4.88%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+4.90%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+4.75%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+4.75%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+4.88%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+4.88%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.88%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.82%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.82%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.48%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.04%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.73%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.64%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.64%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.62%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.50%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.50%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.54%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.42%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.42%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+4.31%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+4.16%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+4.11%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+4.24%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+4.11%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+4.11%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.66%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.53%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.41%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.12%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.12%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.12%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+3.03%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+3.03%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+3.03%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.85%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.85%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.85%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+2.74%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+2.57%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+2.39%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+2.64%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+2.52%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.52%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+2.50%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+2.38%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.38%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.46%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.37%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.37%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.43%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+2.27%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.27%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.43%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.30%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.30%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.43%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.12%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.12%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.35%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.24%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.24%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+2.33%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+2.17%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+2.17%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+2.22%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.07%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.07%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.16%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+2.03%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.03%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.08%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.95%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.82%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.99%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.99%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.99%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 103.9
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.84%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.70%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.70%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.53%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.37%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.20%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.43%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.43%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.43%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+1.33%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.16%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.12%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.13%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.00%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.00%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.92%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.92%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.92%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.89%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.71%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+0.53%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+0.77%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+0.67%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+0.67%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.75%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
+0.55%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+0.35%
19.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.55%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.39%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+0.23%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.42%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.05%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.05%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.29%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.17%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.41%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.10%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.86%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.49%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.04%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.04%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.04%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.3
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.04%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.97%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.33%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-0.08%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.22%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.22%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-0.10%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.31%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.53%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.30%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.30%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.30%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.39%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.71%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.71%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.41%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.72%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.72%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.60%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.03%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.26%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-0.82%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.77%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.64%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.00%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.21%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.42%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.05%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.21%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-1.37%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-1.16%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.94%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.17%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.31%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.53%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.76%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.40%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.61%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.68%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 421
Latest Date 2026-07-27
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 34 / 57 / 24
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 42 / 82 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 54.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
0 unmatched
 19 / 67 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 44.4
 --
Signals --
2026-07-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 5 / 61 / 72
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 36.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 87 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 25 / 26
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Nick Castellanos | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
24 unmatched
 15 / 61 / 60
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 45.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 231 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 50 / 42
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Andrew Benintendi | 43.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 345 matched
0 unmatched
 46 / 64 / 80
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 46.0
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%