Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher Outs

Pitcher Outs · Palantir.

Starter workload probabilities with leash, traffic, and lane-health context.

Rows
7
Date
2026-09-10
Lane
Palantir
PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-10 · saved artifact ROWS 7 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist
Model-market gaps are provisional This market's model lanes don't yet have enough graded results to validate the gaps. Treat them as early model signals, not established advantages.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.048, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-09-10
Palantir 973 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing
Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

658 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Pitcher Outs board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap Outs projIPBFRecent KRecent BB Best line
01
Max FriedNYY
NYY vs COLhitter-friendly
P 48.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 15.5
51.5%Under prob · Palantir 39.6%no-vig +5.30% 17.37count5.79leash22.266volume0.2106traffic0.0769traffic FanDuel -182 avg 1 books
02
Logan GilbertSEA
SEA vs TEXpitcher-friendly
P 47.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 17.5
52.5%Under prob · Palantir 42.1%no-vig +26.73% 16.02count5.34leash22.187volume0.2822traffic0.0808traffic FanDuel -166 avg 1 books
03
Zack WheelerPHI
PHI vs HOUhitter-friendly
P 47.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 17.5
52.6%Under prob · Palantir 42.3%no-vig +10.60% 17.00count5.67leash23.778volume0.3163traffic0.107traffic FanDuel -160 avg 1 books
04
Ryan FeltnerCOL
COL vs NYYhitter-friendly
P 47.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 15.5
47.4%Over prob · Palantir 42.8%no-vig +4.67% 14.46count4.82leash23.072volume0.1808traffic0.1155traffic FanDuel 118 avg 1 books
05
Jacob deGromTEX
TEX vs SEApitcher-friendly
P 47.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 16.5
52.5%Under prob · Palantir 49.4%no-vig +0.92% 16.00count5.33leash20.82volume0.3026traffic0.0759traffic FanDuel -118 avg 1 books
06
Cristian JavierHOU
HOU vs PHIhitter-friendly
P 47.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 14.5
47.6%Over prob · Palantir 47.0%no-vig +0.95% 14.63count4.88leash20.234volume0.1904traffic0.0849traffic FanDuel -102 avg 1 books
07
Nick MartinezTB
TB vs ATLneutral
P 47.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 17.5
47.5%Over prob · Palantir 47.0%no-vig +3.33% 17.04count5.68leash23.605volume0.1649traffic0.0381traffic FanDuel -102 avg 1 books