Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-25 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-25

54 matched props 18 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-26 Older: 2026-08-24

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 18

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-25 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-25/strikeout_edges_2026-08-25.json

Gavin Williams

CLE vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.74

Strongest Gap Under +30.21%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -153 / U +120

Over gap -36.13% / Under gap +30.21%

Under +30.21%

FanDuel

7.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -36.29% / Under gap +30.21%

Under +30.21%

BetMGM

8.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -33.02% / Under gap +25.91%

Under +25.91%

Model O 24.3% | U 75.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 62.1

Kyle Harrison

MIL vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.66

Strongest Gap Under +22.50%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -174 / U +125

Over gap -30.44% / Under gap +22.50%

Under +22.50%

FanDuel

5.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -27.57% / Under gap +21.49%

Under +21.49%

BetMGM

5.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -24.39% / Under gap +16.94%

Under +16.94%

Model O 33.1% | U 66.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 36.7

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.55

Strongest Gap Under +18.18%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -135 / U +105

Over gap -24.41% / Under gap +18.18%

Under +18.18%

BetMGM

6.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -24.41% / Under gap +16.96%

Under +16.96%

FanDuel

6.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -21.09% / Under gap +15.04%

Under +15.04%

Model O 33.0% | U 67.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 77.6

Aaron Nola

PHI vs SEA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.38

Strongest Gap Under +9.31%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +134 / U -150

Over gap -12.05% / Under gap +9.31%

Under +9.31%

FanDuel

5.5

O -148 / U +114

Over gap -15.63% / Under gap +9.22%

Under +9.22%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -15.82% / Under gap +8.53%

Under +8.53%

Model O 30.7% | U 69.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 56.3

Seth Lugo

KC vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.53

Strongest Gap Over +8.58%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap +8.58% / Under gap -15.51%

Over +8.58%

DraftKings

3.5

O -136 / U +107

Over gap +5.50% / Under gap -11.44%

Over +5.50%

FanDuel

3.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap +4.45% / Under gap -10.30%

Over +4.45%

Model O 63.1% | U 36.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 40.8

Adrian Houser

SF vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.22

Strongest Gap Over +7.27%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap +7.27% / Under gap -13.20%

Over +7.27%

BetMGM

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap +3.70% / Under gap -10.63%

Over +3.70%

DraftKings

3.5

O -121 / U -104

Over gap +3.50% / Under gap -9.23%

Over +3.50%

Model O 58.2% | U 41.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 36.3

Taj Bradley

MIN vs ATH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.24

Strongest Gap Under +7.07%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -120 / U -104

Over gap -12.60% / Under gap +7.07%

Under +7.07%

FanDuel

5.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -13.00% / Under gap +7.07%

Under +7.07%

BetMGM

5.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -11.54% / Under gap +4.56%

Under +4.56%

Model O 41.9% | U 58.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 64.9

Bryce Elder

ATL vs LAD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.89

Strongest Gap Over +6.46%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap +6.46% / Under gap -13.45%

Over +6.46%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap +6.04% / Under gap -11.91%

Over +6.04%

DraftKings

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap +5.61% / Under gap -11.59%

Over +5.61%

Model O 51.9% | U 48.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 25.5

Chris Bassitt

BAL vs STL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.86

Strongest Gap Under +6.31%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -180 / U +140

Over gap -12.27% / Under gap +6.31%

Under +6.31%

DraftKings

3.5

O -167 / U +126

Over gap -10.53% / Under gap +3.73%

Under +3.73%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -7.98% / Under gap +0.36%

No Play

Model O 52.0% | U 48.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 62.3

Jackson Jobe

DET vs TB | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.80

Strongest Gap Over +5.06%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +118 / U -151

Over gap +5.06% / Under gap -11.09%

Over +5.06%

BetMGM

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +4.42% / Under gap -11.71%

Over +4.42%

FanDuel

3.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap +0.93% / Under gap -7.07%

No Play

Model O 50.9% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 22.3

Paul Skenes

PIT vs SD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.69

Strongest Gap Under +4.40%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +121 / U -154

Over gap -10.28% / Under gap +4.40%

Under +4.40%

FanDuel

6.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -10.48% / Under gap +4.40%

Under +4.40%

BetMGM

5.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -11.42% / Under gap +3.80%

Under +3.80%

Model O 35.0% | U 65.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 74.0

George Kirby

SEA vs PHI | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.48

Strongest Gap Over +2.61%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap +2.61% / Under gap -8.67%

Over +2.61%

DraftKings

4.5

O -148 / U +115

Over gap +0.91% / Under gap -7.10%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -0.19% / Under gap -7.10%

No Play

Model O 60.6% | U 39.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 57.9

Tyler Glasnow

LAD vs ATL | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 6.12

Strongest Gap Under +2.61%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -8.63% / Under gap +2.61%

Under +2.61%

FanDuel

5.5

O -158 / U +124

Over gap -6.68% / Under gap +0.80%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -6.22% / Under gap -1.07%

No Play

Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 71.1

Brady Singer

CIN vs SF | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.31

Strongest Gap Under +2.04%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -8.82% / Under gap +2.04%

Under +2.04%

DraftKings

4.5

O +103 / U -131

Over gap -6.86% / Under gap +0.89%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -3.05% / Under gap -3.03%

No Play

Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 52.2

Michael King

SD vs PIT | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.60

Strongest Gap Over +1.83%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap +1.83% / Under gap -7.91%

Over +1.83%

DraftKings

5.5

O +119 / U -152

Over gap +1.62% / Under gap -7.60%

Over +1.62%

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -1.50% / Under gap -5.61%

No Play

Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 74.9

Will Warren

NYY vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.10

Strongest Gap No Play -0.58%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -5.50% / Under gap -0.58%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -143 / U +112

Over gap -3.72% / Under gap -2.30%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -4.87% / Under gap -2.75%

No Play

Model O 55.1% | U 44.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 42.9

Max Scherzer

TOR vs KC | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.00

Strongest Gap No Play -0.68%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap -6.44% / Under gap -0.68%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap -5.17% / Under gap -0.81%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -145 / U +113

Over gap -4.67% / Under gap -1.46%

No Play

Model O 37.0% | U 63.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 44.8

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ vs CHC | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.51

Strongest Gap No Play -1.33%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -5.45% / Under gap -1.33%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +103 / U -129

Over gap -3.49% / Under gap -2.10%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +108 / U -136

Over gap -2.31% / Under gap -3.40%

No Play

Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 36.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.