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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-26 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-26
47 matched props 23 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-27 Older: 2026-08-25

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 47
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 23
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-26 | Raw sportsbook rows: 47 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-26/strikeout_edges_2026-08-26.json
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs TEX | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.21
Strongest Gap Under +28.77%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -34.76% / Under gap +28.77%
Under +28.77%
DraftKings
5.5
O -154 / U +119
Over gap -34.45% / Under gap +28.16%
Under +28.16%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -34.60% / Under gap +27.31%
Under +27.31%
Model O 26.2% | U 73.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.6
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.39
Strongest Gap Under +18.43%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -127 / U -103
Over gap -25.12% / Under gap +18.43%
Under +18.43%
FanDuel
6.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -22.66% / Under gap +16.56%
Under +16.56%
BetMGM
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -21.55% / Under gap +14.62%
Under +14.62%
Model O 30.8% | U 69.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.6
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs MIN | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.36
Strongest Gap Over +17.60%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +142 / U -143
Over gap +17.60% / Under gap -17.77%
Over +17.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +14.67% / Under gap -20.75%
Over +14.67%
Model O 58.9% | U 41.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.7
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +15.65%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -21.71% / Under gap +15.65%
Under +15.65%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -21.71% / Under gap +15.65%
Under +15.65%
BetMGM
3.5
O -200 / U +145
Over gap -20.83% / Under gap +13.34%
Under +13.34%
Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.9
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.28
Strongest Gap Under +14.49%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -21.42% / Under gap +14.49%
Under +14.49%
FanDuel
7.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -17.12% / Under gap +11.06%
Under +11.06%
DraftKings
7.5
O +112 / U -144
Over gap -16.21% / Under gap +10.02%
Under +10.02%
Model O 31.0% | U 69.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.9
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.75
Strongest Gap Over +12.26%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +12.26% / Under gap -18.31%
Over +12.26%
DraftKings
4.5
O -111 / U -112
Over gap +11.57% / Under gap -17.01%
Over +11.57%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +9.63% / Under gap -16.56%
Over +9.63%
Model O 64.2% | U 35.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.3
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs BOS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.68
Strongest Gap Over +9.78%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap +9.78% / Under gap -16.56%
Over +9.78%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +6.66% / Under gap -12.51%
Over +6.66%
DraftKings
3.5
O -143 / U +111
Over gap +6.49% / Under gap -12.73%
Over +6.49%
Model O 65.3% | U 34.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.3
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.51
Strongest Gap Under +8.46%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +117
Over gap -14.54% / Under gap +8.46%
Under +8.46%
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -12.17% / Under gap +6.00%
Under +6.00%
BetMGM
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -10.10% / Under gap +3.32%
Under +3.32%
Model O 45.5% | U 54.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.9
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap Under +7.74%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -14.52% / Under gap +7.74%
Under +7.74%
DraftKings
5.5
O -119 / U -109
Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +6.81%
Under +6.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -12.45% / Under gap +6.35%
Under +6.35%
Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.3
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.45
Strongest Gap Over +7.37%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap +7.37% / Under gap -13.38%
Over +7.37%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +7.37% / Under gap -14.30%
Over +7.37%
DraftKings
3.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap +5.59% / Under gap -11.67%
Over +5.59%
Model O 61.9% | U 38.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.5
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Under +6.15%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -13.26% / Under gap +6.15%
Under +6.15%
FanDuel
6.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap +5.80%
Under +5.80%
DraftKings
6.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -10.99% / Under gap +4.97%
Under +4.97%
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.1
Randy Vásquez headshot

Randy Vásquez
SD vs PIT | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.40
Strongest Gap Under +4.31%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -11.24% / Under gap +4.31%
Under +4.31%
DraftKings
3.5
O -119 / U -111
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap +4.08%
Under +4.08%
FanDuel
3.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -7.19% / Under gap +1.13%
No Play
Model O 43.3% | U 56.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.9
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs CHC | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.53
Strongest Gap Over +1.85%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +1.85% / Under gap -7.93%
Over +1.85%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +0.65% / Under gap -7.64%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap +0.44% / Under gap -6.42%
No Play
Model O 46.1% | U 53.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.1
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.51
Strongest Gap No Play +0.92%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +0.92% / Under gap -6.91%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -0.98% / Under gap -4.99%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -4.03% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
Model O 46.0% | U 54.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.6
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs SF | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.10
Strongest Gap No Play -0.23%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -124 / U -104
Over gap -0.23% / Under gap -6.11%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -0.43% / Under gap -5.63%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -2.32% / Under gap -5.13%
No Play
Model O 55.1% | U 44.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.7
Aj Smith-Shawver headshot

Aj Smith-Shawver
ATL vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap No Play -1.55%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +124 / U -159
Over gap -4.48% / Under gap -1.55%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -2.42%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -3.32% / Under gap -2.57%
No Play
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.