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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-12 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-12
127 matched props 75 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-13 Older: 2026-06-11

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 127
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 75
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-12 | Raw sportsbook rows: 127 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-12/strikeout_edges_2026-06-12.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs PHI | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 6.23
Strongest Gap Under +25.65%
Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
8.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -31.73% / Under gap +25.65%
Under +25.65%
FanDuel
8.5
O -104 / U -118
Over gap -30.33% / Under gap +25.22%
Under +25.22%
FanDuel
8.5
O -106 / U -118
Over gap -30.81% / Under gap +25.22%
Under +25.22%
BetMGM
8.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -31.73% / Under gap +24.80%
Under +24.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -37.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -40.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -42.25% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.6% | U 79.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.6
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.51
Strongest Gap Under +13.89%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -102 / U -124
Over gap -19.75% / Under gap +13.89%
Under +13.89%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -16.87% / Under gap +9.90%
Under +9.90%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -16.87% / Under gap +9.90%
Under +9.90%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -16.87% / Under gap +9.25%
Under +9.25%
FanDuel
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -5.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -11.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -16.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -21.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -21.97% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.8% | U 69.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs WSH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap Under +13.71%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -149 / U +116
Over gap -19.85% / Under gap +13.71%
Under +13.71%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -17.46% / Under gap +10.01%
Under +10.01%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -16.53% / Under gap +9.51%
Under +9.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -16.53% / Under gap +9.51%
Under +9.51%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -3.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -6.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap -10.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -15.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -18.77% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.2
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap Under +13.62%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -20.55% / Under gap +13.62%
Under +13.62%
DraftKings
5.5
O +101 / U -128
Over gap -17.92% / Under gap +12.03%
Under +12.03%
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -14.90% / Under gap +7.85%
Under +7.85%
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -14.90% / Under gap +7.85%
Under +7.85%
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -5.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -10.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -16.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -600 / U --
Over gap -21.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -23.22% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.5
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.44
Strongest Gap Under +11.99%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -19.10% / Under gap +11.99%
Under +11.99%
DraftKings
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -17.49% / Under gap +11.64%
Under +11.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -162
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap +8.49%
Under +8.49%
Model O 29.7% | U 70.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.3
Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell
WSH vs SEA | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.15
Strongest Gap Over +9.35%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +9.35% / Under gap --
Over +9.35%
FanDuel
5.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +9.15% / Under gap --
Over +9.15%
FanDuel
3.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap +7.08% / Under gap -12.03%
Over +7.08%
FanDuel
3.5
O -102 / U -122
Over gap +6.58% / Under gap -12.03%
Over +6.58%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +5.86% / Under gap -12.64%
Over +5.86%
DraftKings
3.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap +1.72% / Under gap -7.82%
Over +1.72%
FanDuel
2.5
O -300 / U --
Over gap -0.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.6% | U 60.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.3
Spencer Strider headshot

Spencer Strider
ATL vs NYM | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.49
Strongest Gap Under +9.08%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -155 / U +121
Over gap -15.11% / Under gap +9.08%
Under +9.08%
BetMGM
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -12.66% / Under gap +5.55%
Under +5.55%
FanDuel
5.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap -11.23% / Under gap +4.33%
Under +4.33%
FanDuel
5.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap -11.23% / Under gap +4.33%
Under +4.33%
FanDuel
8.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -1.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -3.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap -7.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -9.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -14.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -15.46% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.7% | U 54.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9
Griffin Canning headshot

Griffin Canning
SD vs BAL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.07
Strongest Gap Under +6.79%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +6.79%
Under +6.79%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +6.79%
Under +6.79%
DraftKings
4.5
O -101 / U -126
Over gap -11.99% / Under gap +5.99%
Under +5.99%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -10.52% / Under gap +3.41%
Under +3.41%
FanDuel
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -9.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -13.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -15.71% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.5
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs PIT | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Over +6.29%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +6.29% / Under gap --
Over +6.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap +4.81% / Under gap --
Over +4.81%
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +4.76% / Under gap -12.38%
Over +4.76%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +0.46% / Under gap -6.51%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +0.00% / Under gap -6.93%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +0.00% / Under gap -6.93%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -275 / U --
Over gap -4.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -6.81% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.5% | U 75.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.3
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs AZ | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.06
Strongest Gap Over +5.93%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +5.93% / Under gap --
Over +5.93%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +4.86% / Under gap --
Over +4.86%
FanDuel
5.5
O +188 / U --
Over gap +4.49% / Under gap --
Over +4.49%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap +1.04% / Under gap -5.75%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -0.42% / Under gap -5.75%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap -2.37% / Under gap -3.79%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -3.80% / Under gap -3.31%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -300 / U --
Over gap -4.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -6.52% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.3% | U 73.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.2
Jack Flaherty headshot

Jack Flaherty
DET vs CLE | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.41
Strongest Gap Over +5.10%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap +5.10% / Under gap --
Over +5.10%
FanDuel
6.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap +3.33% / Under gap --
Over +3.33%
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap +1.39% / Under gap -8.52%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap +1.39% / Under gap -8.52%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -150 / U +117
Over gap -0.38% / Under gap -5.70%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -1.92% / Under gap -5.07%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -192 / U --
Over gap -6.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -470 / U --
Over gap -7.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -8.20% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.5% | U 79.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.1
Jack Leiter headshot

Jack Leiter
TEX vs BOS | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Under +3.84%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +121 / U -154
Over gap -9.72% / Under gap +3.84%
Under +3.84%
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +0.44%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +0.44%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -6.64% / Under gap -0.81%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap -1.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -4.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -12.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -194 / U --
Over gap -15.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -15.75% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.2
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs TEX | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.28
Strongest Gap Over +2.88%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +2.88% / Under gap --
Over +2.88%
DraftKings
5.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -7.70% / Under gap +1.50%
Under +1.50%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -0.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -154
Over gap -1.70% / Under gap -3.18%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +122 / U -154
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap -3.18%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -2.90% / Under gap -4.09%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -9.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -9.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -10.22% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.0% | U 81.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.3
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs STL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 6.19
Strongest Gap Under +2.61%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -9.39% / Under gap +2.61%
Under +2.61%
DraftKings
6.5
O +107 / U -137
Over gap -6.48% / Under gap +0.36%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -140
Over gap -4.90% / Under gap -0.16%
No Play
Model O 41.8% | U 58.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.4
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs DET | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.24
Strongest Gap Over +2.44%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +2.44% / Under gap --
Over +2.44%
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +0.21% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -6.83% / Under gap -1.13%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -162
Over gap -1.15% / Under gap -3.78%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +128 / U -162
Over gap -1.91% / Under gap -3.78%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -2.30% / Under gap -3.78%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -9.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -9.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -10.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.6% | U 81.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.3
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs SD | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Under +2.30%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +2.30%
Under +2.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -6.50% / Under gap +1.61%
Under +1.61%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -6.50% / Under gap +1.61%
Under +1.61%
DraftKings
5.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -7.58% / Under gap +1.61%
Under +1.61%
FanDuel
7.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -0.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -3.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -11.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -12.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -14.04% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.