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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-09 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-09
152 matched props 40 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-10 Older: 2026-06-08

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 152
Grouped Pitchers 21
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 40
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-09 | Raw sportsbook rows: 152 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-09/strikeout_edges_2026-06-09.json
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
STL vs NYM | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.10
Strongest Gap Under +17.13%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -24.24% / Under gap +17.13%
Under +17.13%
DraftKings
4.5
O -159 / U +124
Over gap -22.61% / Under gap +16.58%
Under +16.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +124
Over gap -23.63% / Under gap +16.58%
Under +16.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +124
Over gap -23.63% / Under gap +16.58%
Under +16.58%
FanDuel
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -6.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -11.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap -17.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -19.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -24.54% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.5% | U 75.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.4
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs AZ | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.66
Strongest Gap Under +14.56%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +14.56%
Under +14.56%
FanDuel
5.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +14.56%
Under +14.56%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +12.81%
Under +12.81%
DraftKings
5.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -18.40% / Under gap +12.39%
Under +12.39%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -8.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -14.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -16.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -23.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -24.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.1% | U 66.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.3
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs LAD | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.94
Strongest Gap Under +13.97%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -21.59% / Under gap +13.97%
Under +13.97%
FanDuel
6.5
O -106 / U -114
Over gap -13.05% / Under gap +8.32%
Under +8.32%
FanDuel
6.5
O -110 / U -114
Over gap -13.97% / Under gap +8.32%
Under +8.32%
DraftKings
6.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -14.42% / Under gap +8.32%
Under +8.32%
FanDuel
8.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -6.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -10.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -15.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -20.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -20.12% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.4% | U 61.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.2
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs DET | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.20
Strongest Gap Under +12.15%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -146 / U +115
Over gap -18.01% / Under gap +12.15%
Under +12.15%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -18.66% / Under gap +11.04%
Under +11.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -16.29% / Under gap +9.16%
Under +9.16%
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -16.29% / Under gap +9.16%
Under +9.16%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -2.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -5.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -10.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -12.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -17.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -19.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.5
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.65
Strongest Gap Over +10.59%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +10.59% / Under gap --
Over +10.59%
FanDuel
8.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +10.46% / Under gap --
Over +10.46%
FanDuel
6.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +8.57% / Under gap --
Over +8.57%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +3.87% / Under gap -11.32%
Over +3.87%
DraftKings
5.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +3.34% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +3.34%
FanDuel
5.5
O -144 / U +108
Over gap +2.30% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +2.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O -144 / U +108
Over gap +2.30% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +2.30%
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -2.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -5.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.6% | U 64.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.4
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Over +6.53%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap +6.53% / Under gap -13.23%
Over +6.53%
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -138
Over gap +3.80% / Under gap -8.95%
Over +3.80%
DraftKings
4.5
O +103 / U -132
Over gap +1.71% / Under gap -7.87%
Over +1.71%
Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs STL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 6.10
Strongest Gap Over +5.61%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +5.61% / Under gap --
Over +5.61%
FanDuel
7.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap +4.34% / Under gap --
Over +4.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +1.23% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -5.91% / Under gap -1.38%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -1.91%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -1.91%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -139 / U +109
Over gap -3.87% / Under gap -2.14%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -6.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -7.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -9.64% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.3% | U 80.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.4
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs COL | 2 books
Play
Adj K 4.38
Strongest Gap Over +4.30%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -130 / U +106
Over gap +4.30% / Under gap -9.36%
Over +4.30%
DraftKings
3.5
O -131 / U +103
Over gap +4.11% / Under gap -10.08%
Over +4.11%
Model O 60.8% | U 39.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.6
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs CHC | 2 books
Play
Adj K 3.42
Strongest Gap Over +3.17%
Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
2.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap +3.17% / Under gap -9.25%
Over +3.17%
FanDuel
2.5
O -160 / U +130
Over gap +2.26% / Under gap -7.28%
Over +2.26%
Model O 63.8% | U 36.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.8
Zac Gallen headshot

Zac Gallen
AZ vs MIA | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +2.68%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap -8.65% / Under gap +2.68%
Under +2.68%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -9.35% / Under gap +2.48%
Under +2.48%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -9.35% / Under gap +2.48%
Under +2.48%
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -1.97% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -5.05% / Under gap -2.57%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +205 / U --
Over gap -4.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -13.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -275 / U --
Over gap -13.46% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.6% | U 57.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.8
Stephen Kolek headshot

Stephen Kolek
KC vs TEX | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.12
Strongest Gap Over +2.61%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +2.61% / Under gap --
Over +2.61%
FanDuel
4.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap +1.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +1.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -1.76% / Under gap -3.30%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -1.76% / Under gap -3.30%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -1.76% / Under gap -4.19%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -3.43% / Under gap -4.19%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -5.49% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.8% | U 75.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.3
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs NYY | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.34
Strongest Gap Under +2.54%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -9.47% / Under gap +2.54%
Under +2.54%
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -128
Over gap -6.11% / Under gap +0.95%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -128
Over gap -6.11% / Under gap +0.95%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -0.40% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +110 / U -141
Over gap -4.71% / Under gap -1.42%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -2.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -11.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -11.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.9
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs SEA | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Over +2.34%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +2.34% / Under gap --
Over +2.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +0.66% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -141 / U +111
Over gap -6.13% / Under gap +0.23%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -4.88% / Under gap +0.00%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap +0.00%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -1.10% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -5.07% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -9.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -10.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.2% | U 84.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.3
Lucas Giolito headshot

Lucas Giolito
SD vs CIN | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.76
Strongest Gap Over +1.77%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +108 / U -132
Over gap +1.77% / Under gap -6.75%
Over +1.77%
DraftKings
4.5
O +101 / U -129
Over gap +0.10% / Under gap -6.18%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -3.64% / Under gap -3.34%
No Play
Model O 49.9% | U 50.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.9
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs CWS | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Under +1.53%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -131 / U +103
Over gap -7.50% / Under gap +1.53%
Under +1.53%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -7.31% / Under gap +0.29%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -7.31% / Under gap +0.29%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap -2.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -2.53% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -3.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -3.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -8.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -300 / U --
Over gap -9.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 49.2% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.2
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs PHI | 6 books
No Play
Adj K 6.93
Strongest Gap No Play +1.27%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap +1.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -6.11% / Under gap -0.06%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -10.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -11.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -11.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.3% | U 71.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.7
Adrian Houser headshot

Adrian Houser
SF vs WSH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.88
Strongest Gap No Play +1.16%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +1.16% / Under gap -7.94%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap +0.00% / Under gap -4.76%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -114 / U -111
Over gap -0.89% / Under gap -4.99%
No Play
Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.4
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs KC | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 5.23
Strongest Gap No Play +0.92%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +0.92% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -137
Over gap -6.28% / Under gap +0.39%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -5.82% / Under gap -1.15%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -5.82% / Under gap -1.15%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -1.66% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -4.71% / Under gap -2.58%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -9.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -10.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -12.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.5% | U 81.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs BAL | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 6.24
Strongest Gap No Play +0.76%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +0.76% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -5.12% / Under gap -0.83%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -6.04% / Under gap -0.83%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -6.04% / Under gap -0.83%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -1.80% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -5.12% / Under gap -2.50%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -11.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -11.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -13.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.8% | U 79.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.8
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs BOS | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 3.99
Strongest Gap No Play +0.69%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +0.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap +0.67% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -0.22% / Under gap -6.71%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -0.45% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap -1.06%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap -1.06%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -139 / U +109
Over gap -3.83% / Under gap -2.18%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -8.01% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.9% | U 77.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
LAD vs PIT | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 4.15
Strongest Gap No Play -0.74%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +120 / U -157
Over gap -5.80% / Under gap -0.74%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -166
Over gap -4.60% / Under gap -2.06%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -166
Over gap -4.60% / Under gap -2.06%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -3.25% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -3.70% / Under gap -3.59%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -5.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -10.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -10.40% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.6% | U 60.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.