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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-14 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-14
200 matched props 31 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-15 Older: 2026-06-13

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 200
Grouped Pitchers 25
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 31
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-14 | Raw sportsbook rows: 200 | Grouped pitcher entries: 25 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-14/strikeout_edges_2026-06-14.json
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs PHI | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.06
Strongest Gap Under +28.21%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -35.20% / Under gap +28.21%
Under +28.21%
DraftKings
6.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -32.34% / Under gap +26.27%
Under +26.27%
FanDuel
7.5
O +124 / U -152
Over gap -28.02% / Under gap +23.06%
Under +23.06%
FanDuel
7.5
O +124 / U -152
Over gap -28.02% / Under gap +23.06%
Under +23.06%
FanDuel
8.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -21.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -37.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -38.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -41.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.3% | U 73.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.2
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs DET | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.70
Strongest Gap Under +16.35%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -130 / U +106
Over gap -21.41% / Under gap +16.35%
Under +16.35%
FanDuel
6.5
O -130 / U +106
Over gap -21.41% / Under gap +16.35%
Under +16.35%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -23.22% / Under gap +16.11%
Under +16.11%
DraftKings
7.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -20.78% / Under gap +14.90%
Under +14.90%
FanDuel
8.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -10.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap -17.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -19.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -25.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -27.46% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.1% | U 64.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.9
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs MIN | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 2.84
Strongest Gap Under +15.47%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -21.57% / Under gap +15.47%
Under +15.47%
BetMGM
3.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -20.46% / Under gap +13.53%
Under +13.53%
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -20.00% / Under gap +13.13%
Under +13.13%
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -20.00% / Under gap +13.13%
Under +13.13%
FanDuel
5.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -8.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -13.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -23.20% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.9% | U 68.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.6
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.68
Strongest Gap Under +14.94%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -20.97% / Under gap +14.94%
Under +14.94%
FanDuel
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -19.01% / Under gap +12.08%
Under +12.08%
FanDuel
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -19.01% / Under gap +12.08%
Under +12.08%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -17.85% / Under gap +11.07%
Under +11.07%
FanDuel
7.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -7.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +198 / U --
Over gap -12.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -15.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -21.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -22.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.4% | U 66.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.8
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs WSH | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.67
Strongest Gap Under +14.42%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -20.45% / Under gap +14.42%
Under +14.42%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +10.43%
Under +10.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +10.43%
Under +10.43%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -15.27% / Under gap +7.98%
Under +7.98%
FanDuel
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -6.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -11.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -19.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -22.07% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.2% | U 68.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.6
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.04
Strongest Gap Under +14.35%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -20.38% / Under gap +14.35%
Under +14.35%
BetMGM
6.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -20.22% / Under gap +12.60%
Under +12.60%
FanDuel
6.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap -16.36% / Under gap +11.20%
Under +11.20%
FanDuel
6.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap -16.36% / Under gap +11.20%
Under +11.20%
FanDuel
8.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -6.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap -11.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -16.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -21.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -22.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.8% | U 60.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.0
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.81
Strongest Gap Under +14.19%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -21.12% / Under gap +14.19%
Under +14.19%
DraftKings
7.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -20.07% / Under gap +14.04%
Under +14.04%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -21.33% / Under gap +14.04%
Under +14.04%
Model O 25.2% | U 74.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.4
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs BAL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.36
Strongest Gap Under +14.00%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap -20.03% / Under gap +14.00%
Under +14.00%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -19.03% / Under gap +12.04%
Under +12.04%
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -18.73% / Under gap +11.62%
Under +11.62%
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -18.73% / Under gap +11.62%
Under +11.62%
FanDuel
6.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -5.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -9.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -13.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -18.04% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.8% | U 74.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.9
Zac Gallen headshot

Zac Gallen
AZ vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +12.99%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -160 / U +125
Over gap -18.97% / Under gap +12.99%
Under +12.99%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -18.97% / Under gap +11.98%
Under +11.98%
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -18.67% / Under gap +11.56%
Under +11.56%
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -18.67% / Under gap +11.56%
Under +11.56%
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -3.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -6.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap -11.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -16.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -20.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.6% | U 57.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.0
Casey Mize headshot

Casey Mize
DET vs CLE | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Over +9.63%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +9.63% / Under gap --
Over +9.63%
FanDuel
4.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap +9.12% / Under gap --
Over +9.12%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +7.94% / Under gap --
Over +7.94%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap +5.45% / Under gap -12.45%
Over +5.45%
FanDuel
2.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap +2.32% / Under gap --
Over +2.32%
Model O 31.4% | U 68.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.5
Emmet Sheehan headshot

Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs CWS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Under +9.44%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -16.42% / Under gap +9.44%
Under +9.44%
DraftKings
5.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -11.47% / Under gap +5.48%
Under +5.48%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -136
Over gap -12.43% / Under gap +5.30%
Under +5.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -136
Over gap -12.43% / Under gap +5.30%
Under +5.30%
FanDuel
7.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -3.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -6.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -12.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -16.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -17.32% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.5
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs BOS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.35
Strongest Gap Over +6.10%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +6.10% / Under gap --
Over +6.10%
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +3.96% / Under gap --
Over +3.96%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +1.33% / Under gap -8.78%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap +1.23% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -0.90% / Under gap -5.08%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -174 / U +130
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap -2.26%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -174 / U +130
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap -2.26%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -7.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -7.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.8% | U 80.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.2
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs COL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap Under +5.26%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -10.31% / Under gap +5.26%
Under +5.26%
FanDuel
4.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -10.31% / Under gap +5.26%
Under +5.26%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -7.76% / Under gap +0.31%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -0.05% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -123 / U -104
Over gap -5.47% / Under gap -0.67%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -2.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -6.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -13.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 49.7% | U 50.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.8
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs STL | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.44
Strongest Gap Over +4.69%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +4.69% / Under gap --
Over +4.69%
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +2.95% / Under gap --
Over +2.95%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -150
Over gap +0.30% / Under gap -4.94%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -150
Over gap +0.30% / Under gap -4.94%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +121 / U -154
Over gap -0.31% / Under gap -5.57%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -5.06% / Under gap -2.39%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -5.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -6.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -6.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.8% | U 79.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.4
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs CHC | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.61
Strongest Gap Over +4.62%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +4.62% / Under gap --
Over +4.62%
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap +3.09% / Under gap --
Over +3.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -148
Over gap +1.98% / Under gap -7.11%
Over +1.98%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -148
Over gap +1.98% / Under gap -7.11%
Over +1.98%
DraftKings
5.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap +1.77% / Under gap -7.75%
Over +1.77%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -4.88%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -7.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -8.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -600 / U --
Over gap -8.99% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.8% | U 77.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.1
Patrick Corbin headshot

Patrick Corbin
TOR vs NYY | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Over +4.35%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +4.35% / Under gap --
Over +4.35%
FanDuel
5.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +4.07% / Under gap --
Over +4.07%
FanDuel
4.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap +1.55% / Under gap --
Over +1.55%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +1.14% / Under gap -8.76%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +133 / U -170
Over gap +1.00% / Under gap -6.88%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +130
Over gap -0.40% / Under gap -4.62%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +130
Over gap -0.40% / Under gap -4.62%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -6.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.9% | U 82.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.7
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs ATL | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.96
Strongest Gap Over +4.19%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +4.19% / Under gap --
Over +4.19%
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +3.20% / Under gap --
Over +3.20%
FanDuel
6.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +0.52% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -1.11% / Under gap -5.87%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap -1.32% / Under gap -4.76%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -122 / U +100
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -122 / U +100
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -9.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -9.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.9% | U 82.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.1
Bryce Elder headshot

Bryce Elder
ATL vs NYM | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.78
Strongest Gap Over +3.02%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +410 / U --
Over gap +3.02% / Under gap --
Over +3.02%
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +1.58% / Under gap --
Over +1.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap -0.81% / Under gap -6.31%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap -0.81% / Under gap -6.31%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap -1.39%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -1.52% / Under gap -4.51%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -6.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -8.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.6% | U 77.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.1
Miles Mikolas headshot

Miles Mikolas
WSH vs SEA | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.46
Strongest Gap Over +2.64%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +139 / U -178
Over gap +2.64% / Under gap -8.51%
Over +2.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +2.04% / Under gap --
Over +2.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +1.25% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap +1.00% / Under gap -8.12%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +122 / U -150
Over gap -0.57% / Under gap -4.48%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -1.39% / Under gap -4.48%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -6.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.3
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs SD | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.63
Strongest Gap Over +2.53%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +2.53% / Under gap --
Over +2.53%
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +1.35% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -1.27% / Under gap -4.83%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -120
Over gap -2.75% / Under gap -2.30%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -120
Over gap -3.23% / Under gap -2.30%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -210 / U +155
Over gap -3.13% / Under gap -3.83%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -7.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -8.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.7% | U 79.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.4
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs TOR | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.76
Strongest Gap Under +2.53%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -10.15% / Under gap +2.53%
Under +2.53%
FanDuel
6.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +1.96% / Under gap --
Over +1.96%
DraftKings
4.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap -5.51% / Under gap -0.59%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -0.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -2.68%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -2.68%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -9.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -9.95% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 49.9% | U 50.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6
Stephen Kolek headshot

Stephen Kolek
KC vs HOU | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.07
Strongest Gap Over +2.35%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +2.35% / Under gap --
Over +2.35%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +2.28% / Under gap --
Over +2.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap +0.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +108
Over gap -1.18% / Under gap -3.80%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +108
Over gap -1.18% / Under gap -3.80%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -3.13% / Under gap -2.89%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -3.34%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -3.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.1% | U 75.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.0
Spencer Arrighetti headshot

Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs KC | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.90
Strongest Gap Over +2.14%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +2.14% / Under gap --
Over +2.14%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -8.71% / Under gap +1.42%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +127 / U -163
Over gap -7.29% / Under gap +1.26%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +0.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -0.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -5.56% / Under gap -1.57%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -5.56% / Under gap -1.57%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -6.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -7.81% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.0% | U 85.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.7
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs AZ | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 4.03
Strongest Gap No Play +0.13%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -157 / U +123
Over gap -6.06% / Under gap +0.13%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +0.09% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -6.51% / Under gap -0.48%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +138 / U -170
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap -0.52%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +138 / U -170
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap -0.52%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -2.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -192 / U --
Over gap -10.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -11.31% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 55.0% | U 45.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.6
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs ATH | 7 books
No Play
Adj K 3.31
Strongest Gap No Play -0.05%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -0.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -1.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -4.78% / Under gap -2.15%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -4.78% / Under gap -2.15%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -2.76%
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -190 / U +140
Over gap -3.70% / Under gap -3.49%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -9.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 13.7% | U 86.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.