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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-11 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-11
91 matched props 37 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-12 Older: 2026-06-10

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 91
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 37
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-11 | Raw sportsbook rows: 91 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-11/strikeout_edges_2026-06-11.json
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.37
Strongest Gap Under +16.35%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap -22.29% / Under gap +16.35%
Under +16.35%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -20.28% / Under gap +13.35%
Under +13.35%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -19.55% / Under gap +12.85%
Under +12.85%
Model O 26.0% | U 74.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.6
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs BAL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.24
Strongest Gap Under +12.60%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -19.59% / Under gap +12.60%
Under +12.60%
FanDuel
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -19.59% / Under gap +12.60%
Under +12.60%
FanDuel
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -19.59% / Under gap +12.60%
Under +12.60%
DraftKings
6.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -18.17% / Under gap +12.20%
Under +12.20%
FanDuel
8.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -4.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -8.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +128 / U --
Over gap -15.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -19.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -23.57% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.9% | U 58.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.7
Hunter Dobbins headshot

Hunter Dobbins
STL vs NYM | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.23
Strongest Gap Under +7.71%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -14.64% / Under gap +7.71%
Under +7.71%
DraftKings
3.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -11.55% / Under gap +5.54%
Under +5.54%
FanDuel
3.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -10.59% / Under gap +3.57%
Under +3.57%
FanDuel
3.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -10.59% / Under gap +3.57%
Under +3.57%
FanDuel
5.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -4.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -7.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -11.89% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.9% | U 60.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.2
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs MIN | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.60
Strongest Gap Under +6.08%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -11.14% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
FanDuel
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -12.16% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
DraftKings
3.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -11.49% / Under gap +5.42%
Under +5.42%
BetMGM
3.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -9.33% / Under gap +1.59%
Under +1.59%
FanDuel
5.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -2.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -13.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 47.2% | U 52.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.0
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs SEA | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 6.08
Strongest Gap Over +5.59%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +5.59% / Under gap --
Over +5.59%
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +4.67% / Under gap --
Over +4.67%
FanDuel
6.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap +3.02% / Under gap --
Over +3.02%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +1.64% / Under gap -8.57%
Over +1.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O -114 / U -106
Over gap +0.75% / Under gap -5.48%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -106
Over gap -0.11% / Under gap -5.48%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap -3.52%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -6.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -7.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -8.89% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.1% | U 80.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.8
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs LAD | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.54
Strongest Gap Over +4.19%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap +4.19% / Under gap --
Over +4.19%
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +1.81% / Under gap --
Over +1.81%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +1.02% / Under gap -7.72%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap +0.40% / Under gap -5.29%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap +0.40% / Under gap -5.29%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -2.75% / Under gap -3.35%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -5.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -7.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.6% | U 80.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.7
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs CHC | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.99
Strongest Gap Over +4.04%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +4.04% / Under gap --
Over +4.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O +198 / U --
Over gap +3.30% / Under gap --
Over +3.30%
DraftKings
3.5
O -107 / U -120
Over gap +2.64% / Under gap -8.88%
Over +2.64%
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap +0.84% / Under gap -5.55%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap +0.84% / Under gap -5.55%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -4.33%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -3.43% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.9% | U 77.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.5
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs TEX | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Over +3.53%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +3.53% / Under gap --
Over +3.53%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +2.99% / Under gap --
Over +2.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap +1.00% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +0.53% / Under gap -7.31%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -104
Over gap -2.38% / Under gap -2.73%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -2.59% / Under gap -3.44%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -104
Over gap -3.81% / Under gap -2.73%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -8.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -8.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.9% | U 76.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.8
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs MIA | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.47
Strongest Gap Over +2.58%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +2.58% / Under gap --
Over +2.58%
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap +0.66% / Under gap -7.36%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap +0.29% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +100 / U -127
Over gap -4.90% / Under gap -1.05%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -3.44% / Under gap -3.43%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -3.44% / Under gap -3.43%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -8.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -8.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.7% | U 81.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.5
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs DET | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Over +2.49%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +2.49% / Under gap --
Over +2.49%
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +2.01% / Under gap --
Over +2.01%
DraftKings
4.5
O -133 / U +104
Over gap -6.11% / Under gap +0.01%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap -0.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap -5.93% / Under gap -0.97%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap -5.93% / Under gap -0.97%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -3.58% / Under gap -3.35%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -8.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -8.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 14.2% | U 85.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8
Edward Cabrera headshot

Edward Cabrera
CHC vs COL | 6 books
Lean
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap Over +2.39%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +2.39% / Under gap --
Over +2.39%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +0.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -7.47% / Under gap +0.36%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +144 / U --
Over gap -2.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -380 / U --
Over gap -9.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -9.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.1% | U 83.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.2
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs KC | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 3.94
Strongest Gap No Play +0.88%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +0.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +0.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -1.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -4.53% / Under gap -2.47%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -4.53% / Under gap -2.47%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -127 / U -101
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap -3.45%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -5.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 12.6% | U 87.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.