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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-13 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-13
126 matched props 40 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-14 Older: 2026-06-12

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 126
Grouped Pitchers 20
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 40
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-13 | Raw sportsbook rows: 126 | Grouped pitcher entries: 20 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-13/strikeout_edges_2026-06-13.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs SEA | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.77
Strongest Gap Under +23.90%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -162 / U +132
Over gap -28.83% / Under gap +23.90%
Under +23.90%
FanDuel
4.5
O -162 / U +132
Over gap -28.83% / Under gap +23.90%
Under +23.90%
DraftKings
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -28.79% / Under gap +22.62%
Under +22.62%
FanDuel
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -9.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -15.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -22.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -23.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -30.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.0% | U 67.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.4
Michael Soroka headshot

Michael Soroka
AZ vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap Under +23.64%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -30.63% / Under gap +23.64%
Under +23.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -30.33% / Under gap +23.22%
Under +23.22%
DraftKings
5.5
O -144 / U +113
Over gap -28.11% / Under gap +22.14%
Under +22.14%
BetMGM
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -26.12% / Under gap +19.13%
Under +19.13%
FanDuel
8.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -8.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -14.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap -22.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -29.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -380 / U --
Over gap -33.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.9% | U 69.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.7
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs MIN | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.61
Strongest Gap Under +17.89%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -23.94% / Under gap +17.89%
Under +17.89%
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -24.36% / Under gap +17.43%
Under +17.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -24.36% / Under gap +17.43%
Under +17.43%
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -11.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +174 / U --
Over gap -18.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -24.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -28.81% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.2% | U 69.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.7
Tarik Skubal headshot

Tarik Skubal
DET vs CLE | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 6.54
Strongest Gap Over +12.93%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +12.93% / Under gap --
Over +12.93%
FanDuel
6.5
O +188 / U --
Over gap +11.78% / Under gap --
Over +11.78%
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap +9.00% / Under gap -16.12%
Over +9.00%
FanDuel
4.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap +1.81% / Under gap --
Over +1.81%
FanDuel
3.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -0.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -2.31% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.2% | U 65.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 84.9
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs LAD | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.09
Strongest Gap Under +12.85%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +12.85%
Under +12.85%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap -17.53% / Under gap +12.37%
Under +12.37%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap -17.53% / Under gap +12.37%
Under +12.37%
FanDuel
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap -5.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -9.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -14.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -18.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -21.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.1
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs ATH | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.91
Strongest Gap Under +11.71%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -108 / U -112
Over gap -16.46% / Under gap +11.71%
Under +11.71%
DraftKings
4.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap -16.92% / Under gap +10.84%
Under +10.84%
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.0
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs NYM | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 3.36
Strongest Gap Under +11.62%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -17.65% / Under gap +11.62%
Under +11.62%
Model O 42.5% | U 57.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 16.1
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs TEX | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.91
Strongest Gap Under +9.81%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -106 / U -114
Over gap -14.54% / Under gap +9.81%
Under +9.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O -110 / U -114
Over gap -15.46% / Under gap +9.81%
Under +9.81%
DraftKings
5.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap -14.06% / Under gap +7.92%
Under +7.92%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -2.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -6.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -11.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -14.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -19.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -275 / U --
Over gap -21.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs CWS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.57
Strongest Gap Under +9.06%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -15.23% / Under gap +9.06%
Under +9.06%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap +6.37%
Under +6.37%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap +6.37%
Under +6.37%
FanDuel
8.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -4.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -8.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -17.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -21.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -21.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.3% | U 66.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.6
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs BOS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.47
Strongest Gap Under +8.23%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +117 / U -149
Over gap -14.15% / Under gap +8.23%
Under +8.23%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -14.80% / Under gap +7.75%
Under +7.75%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap -14.80% / Under gap +7.75%
Under +7.75%
FanDuel
8.5
O +410 / U --
Over gap -6.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -11.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -18.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -22.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -23.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.9% | U 68.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.8
Randy Vásquez headshot

Randy Vásquez
SD vs BAL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.21
Strongest Gap Under +6.36%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -112 / U -118
Over gap -13.32% / Under gap +6.36%
Under +6.36%
DraftKings
3.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -10.99% / Under gap +4.93%
Under +4.93%
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 13.3
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.63
Strongest Gap Under +5.98%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap -10.96% / Under gap +5.98%
Under +5.98%
DraftKings
5.5
O -147 / U +115
Over gap -11.79% / Under gap +5.77%
Under +5.77%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -5.77% / Under gap -1.21%
No Play
Model O 47.7% | U 52.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.9
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
SEA vs WSH | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.84
Strongest Gap Over +5.88%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +5.88% / Under gap --
Over +5.88%
FanDuel
5.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap +5.07% / Under gap --
Over +5.07%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -132
Over gap +1.12% / Under gap -8.02%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -132
Over gap +1.12% / Under gap -8.02%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -2.80% / Under gap -3.27%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -3.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.4% | U 76.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.1
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs HOU | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Under +5.80%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -121 / U -106
Over gap -12.01% / Under gap +5.80%
Under +5.80%
FanDuel
4.5
O -110 / U -110
Over gap -9.64% / Under gap +4.88%
Under +4.88%
FanDuel
4.5
O -114 / U -110
Over gap -10.53% / Under gap +4.88%
Under +4.88%
FanDuel
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +194 / U --
Over gap -6.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -11.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -13.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.4
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs DET | 8 books
Play
Adj K 5.32
Strongest Gap Over +4.75%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +4.75% / Under gap --
Over +4.75%
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +3.55% / Under gap --
Over +3.55%
FanDuel
5.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap +1.83% / Under gap --
Over +1.83%
DraftKings
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -1.00% / Under gap -5.08%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -150 / U +122
Over gap -1.65% / Under gap -3.40%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +122
Over gap -2.89% / Under gap -3.40%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -4.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -5.26% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 19.5% | U 80.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Ben Brown headshot

Ben Brown
CHC vs SF | 2 books
Play
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Under +3.32%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -9.35% / Under gap +3.32%
Under +3.32%
FanDuel
4.5
O -142 / U --
Over gap -7.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs TOR | 8 books
Play
Adj K 5.62
Strongest Gap Over +3.31%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +410 / U --
Over gap +3.31% / Under gap --
Over +3.31%
DraftKings
5.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap +1.70% / Under gap -7.73%
Over +1.70%
FanDuel
6.5
O +205 / U --
Over gap +1.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -138
Over gap -1.45% / Under gap -5.55%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -138
Over gap -1.45% / Under gap -5.55%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -8.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -8.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -9.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.9% | U 77.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.1
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs MIL | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap Over +2.66%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +2.66% / Under gap --
Over +2.66%
FanDuel
6.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -0.12% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -5.66% / Under gap -0.22%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +124
Over gap -6.83% / Under gap -0.22%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +124
Over gap -6.83% / Under gap -0.22%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U --
Over gap -4.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -9.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -10.50% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.4% | U 82.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs NYY | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 5.95
Strongest Gap Under +2.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +118 / U -144
Over gap -7.32% / Under gap +2.43%
Under +2.43%
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -144
Over gap -7.75% / Under gap +2.43%
Under +2.43%
DraftKings
6.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -7.96% / Under gap +1.94%
Under +1.94%
FanDuel
8.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -0.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -3.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -14.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -14.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -16.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.6% | U 61.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4
Mike Burrows headshot

Mike Burrows
HOU vs KC | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 4.28
Strongest Gap Over +1.72%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +1.72% / Under gap --
Over +1.72%
FanDuel
5.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap +0.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -172
Over gap -1.98% / Under gap -5.12%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -172
Over gap -1.98% / Under gap -5.12%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +126 / U -161
Over gap -2.37% / Under gap -3.57%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -490 / U --
Over gap -6.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.4% | U 83.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.