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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-08 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-08
57 matched props 20 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-09 Older: 2026-06-07

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 57
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 20
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10 2026-06-09

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-08 | Raw sportsbook rows: 57 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-08/strikeout_edges_2026-06-08.json
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.89
Strongest Gap Under +27.39%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -130 / U +106
Over gap -32.45% / Under gap +27.39%
Under +27.39%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -34.26% / Under gap +27.15%
Under +27.15%
DraftKings
6.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -31.49% / Under gap +25.43%
Under +25.43%
Model O 24.1% | U 75.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.9
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs BAL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.97
Strongest Gap Under +16.76%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -147 / U +114
Over gap -23.00% / Under gap +16.76%
Under +16.76%
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -22.84% / Under gap +15.87%
Under +15.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -22.84% / Under gap +15.87%
Under +15.87%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -6.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -10.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -16.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -19.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -23.80% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.9
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.82
Strongest Gap Under +15.62%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -20.50% / Under gap +15.62%
Under +15.62%
FanDuel
6.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -21.57% / Under gap +15.62%
Under +15.62%
DraftKings
6.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -20.69% / Under gap +14.70%
Under +14.70%
BetMGM
6.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -20.69% / Under gap +13.24%
Under +13.24%
FanDuel
8.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -12.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap -17.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -18.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -24.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -26.31% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.8% | U 63.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.83
Strongest Gap Under +14.72%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -105
Over gap -19.43% / Under gap +14.72%
Under +14.72%
DraftKings
4.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -20.89% / Under gap +14.72%
Under +14.72%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -19.43% / Under gap +12.45%
Under +12.45%
Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.7
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.71
Strongest Gap Under +13.30%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -19.31% / Under gap +13.30%
Under +13.30%
FanDuel
6.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -16.68% / Under gap +9.81%
Under +9.81%
BetMGM
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -15.98% / Under gap +9.20%
Under +9.20%
Model O 35.2% | U 64.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.7
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.95
Strongest Gap Under +5.51%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +109 / U -140
Over gap -11.69% / Under gap +5.51%
Under +5.51%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -12.62% / Under gap +5.51%
Under +5.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -10.14% / Under gap +5.16%
Under +5.16%
Model O 36.2% | U 63.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.8
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs CLE | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.79
Strongest Gap Over +3.89%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +3.89% / Under gap --
Over +3.89%
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +3.82% / Under gap --
Over +3.82%
DraftKings
4.5
O +109 / U -140
Over gap +2.48% / Under gap -8.66%
Over +2.48%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +1.55% / Under gap -8.66%
Over +1.55%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap -0.65% / Under gap -6.47%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap -0.65% / Under gap -6.47%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -270 / U --
Over gap -6.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -8.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.8% | U 77.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.3
Patrick Corbin headshot

Patrick Corbin
TOR vs PHI | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Over +3.32%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +3.32% / Under gap --
Over +3.32%
FanDuel
5.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +3.00% / Under gap --
Over +3.00%
FanDuel
4.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap -0.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -164 / U +134
Over gap -2.09% / Under gap -2.77%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -164 / U +129
Over gap -2.09% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -174 / U +134
Over gap -3.47% / Under gap -2.77%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -3.77% / Under gap -3.52%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -550 / U --
Over gap -7.50% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.0% | U 83.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.2
Spencer Arrighetti headshot

Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs LAA | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.37
Strongest Gap Under +1.97%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap -8.48% / Under gap +1.97%
Under +1.97%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -120
Over gap -6.60% / Under gap +1.55%
Under +1.55%
DraftKings
5.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -5.12% / Under gap -0.98%
No Play
Model O 43.9% | U 56.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.9
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs WSH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.59
Strongest Gap Over +1.69%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +120 / U -148
Over gap +1.69% / Under gap -6.82%
Over +1.69%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +0.55% / Under gap -7.54%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap -3.60% / Under gap -2.50%
No Play
Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.7
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs MIL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.48
Strongest Gap No Play +1.14%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap +1.14% / Under gap -7.02%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -1.03% / Under gap -3.95%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -4.73% / Under gap -2.72%
No Play
Model O 62.4% | U 37.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.2
Miles Mikolas headshot

Miles Mikolas
WSH vs SF | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.23
Strongest Gap No Play -0.69%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap -0.69%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +138 / U -170
Over gap -2.11% / Under gap -2.87%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap -2.64% / Under gap -4.82%
No Play
Model O 39.9% | U 60.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.